Analytical assessment of the decision to accept an additional order at a price below a critical level. What business is relevant now and what is in demand Questions for discussion

home

Law and law EXERCISE 1 Four options developed technological process slate manufacturing, ensuring the quality of products in accordance with current standards and technical specifications. Key Usage Indicators

various options

technological process are given in table 2.1.

Table 2.1

Initial data on the technological process of slate manufacturing

Note:

The specified indicators have the following dimensions:

q - annual production volume, million m²;

s - cost per unit of production, thousand rubles/m²; K - capital investment according to the option, million rubles. Choice best option technological process should be carried out by calculating the comparative efficiency coefficients of additional

capital investments

and confirm the resulting solution by calculating the reduced costs.

The best option is selected using one of the following methods:

1) according to the efficiency coefficient additional. investments,

The efficiency coefficient is determined by the formula:

where: S1 and S2 - the cost of annual production volume according to two comparative options;< Ен - менее капиталоемкий.

K1 and K2 - capital investments for two comparative options.

When E > En a more capital-intensive option is introduced, when E

2) by calculating reduced costs.

The given costs are determined by the formula:

P= S+ En*K min, (2.2)

where: S is the cost of the annual volume of production according to the option;

En - standard efficiency ratio of additional capital investments;

K - capital investment for the option.

The option with the lowest costs is implemented.

Standard efficiency ratio of additional capital investments

Since E>

Since E>

Since E>

P1 = S1 + En*K1 = 3000*76.5 + 0.200*115000 = 252500 rub.

P2 = S2 + En*K2 = 3000*78 + 0.200*110000 = 256000 rub.

P3 = S3 + En*K3 = 3000*71 + 0.200*116000 = 236200 rub.

P4 = S4 + En*K4 = 3000*85 + 0.200*86000 = 272200 rub.

Thus, the calculation of the reduced costs for the options confirmed that option 3 is the best, since its costs turned out to be the lowest.

TASK 2

For the conditions presented in the previous task, it is necessary to determine the best variant of the technological process if capital investments are made over four years as a share of the total investment (Table 2.3).

Table 2.3

Share of investments by year

Before you start searching for the best technological process option, it is necessary to prepare information on capital costs by year of investment (Table 2.4). Their structure (in percentage) is given in the assignment.

Table 2.4

Investments by year and option (thousand rubles)

Ordinal year	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Option 4
Third year
Second year
First year

The numbers in the table above were determined as follows:

Option 1:

Year 0: K10 = 40%*115 = 46 thousand rubles.

1st year: K11 = 30% * 115 = 34.5 thousand rubles.

2nd year: K12 = 20% * 115 = 23 thousand rubles.

3rd year: K13 = 10% * 115 = 11.5 thousand rubles.

Investments for options 2, 3, 4 are calculated in a similar way.

Let's recalculate investments taking into account the time factor.

Option 1:

Thus, taking into account the time factor, capital investments in option 1 will not be 115 thousand rubles, but 117.32 thousand rubles.

Investments are calculated similarly for other options:

In the future, calculations of the coefficients of additional capital investments and reduced costs for the options are made by analogy with the first task, but using the newly obtained values ​​of capital investments:

Since the manufacturing cost indicator is specified in rubles/thousand. mІ, then capital investments should be converted into rubles, multiplying them by 1000.

Let's compare options 1 and 2:

Since E>En, a more capital-intensive option is accepted for implementation, i.e. option 1. Option 2 is excluded from further analysis as ineffective.

Let's compare options 1 and 3:

Since E>En, then a more capital-intensive option is accepted for implementation, i.e. option 3. Option 1 is excluded from further analysis as ineffective.

Let's compare options 3 and 4:

Since E>En, a more capital-intensive option is accepted for implementation, i.e. option 3. It is effective among all alternative options.

Let's check the obtained conclusion by calculating the reduced costs.

P1 = S1 + En*K1 = 3000*76.5 + 0.200*117320 = 252965 rub.

P2 = S2 + En*K2 = 3000*78 + 0.200*112220 = 256444 rub.

P3 = S3 + En*K3 = 3000*71 + 0.200*118340 = 236687 rub.

P4 = S4 + En*K4 = 3000*85 + 0.200*87740 = 272548 rub.

Thus, the calculation of the reduced costs for the options confirmed that option 3 is the most economical.

TASK 3

Five variants of the technological process for making bricks have been developed, which are characterized by different productivity, but ensure the production of products in accordance with current standards and specifications. The selling price of one brick is 0.285 rubles. Determine which of the technological process options is more economically profitable if the efficiency standard adopted by the company is En. The remaining source data is given in tables 2.5 and 2.6.

Table 2.5

Initial data

Table 2.6

Information on the volume of brick production and the investment efficiency standard

The choice of the best option is carried out according to the given effect. The given effect is determined by the formula

E = q*Z - (s + En*Ku)max, (2.3)

where: E - annual reduced economic effect according to option;

q - annual production volume in physical terms;

Z - product sales price;

S is the cost of production per unit of production according to the option;

En - investment efficiency standard;

Ku - specific capital investments according to the option.

Specific capital investments are determined by the formula:

where: K - capital investment for the option.

Option 1:

Option 2:

Option 3:

Option 4:

Option 5:

Thus, the most profitable of all is option 5, since the given effect is the most significant.

TASK 4

Five variants of the technological process for manufacturing tiles have been developed, each differing from the others in quality finished products and the performance of the equipment used. Determine which option is more economically profitable given the following initial data (Tables 2.7, 2.8).

Table 2.7

Options for the technological process of manufacturing tiles

Table 2.8

Information on the price of tiles and the standard for the efficiency of capital investments

According to the given initial data, alternative options differ in the volume of brick production. Therefore, to select the best technological process option, reduced cost formulas should not be used. The solution to such a problem is possible only by applying the formula for the given effect.

During the calculation process, it is necessary to ensure that the dimensions of the indicators are strictly adhered to. Taking this requirement into account, we determine the given effect.

Option 1:

Option 2:

Option 3:

Option 4:

Option 5:

Thus, the most profitable of all is option 4, since the given effect is the most significant.

TASK 5

A technical project for the construction and operation of a brick factory with a production capacity of M (thousand pieces/year) has been developed. Construction and development period production capacity new enterprise (? T) is equal to 0.8 years.

It was considered appropriate to use 10% of the plant's production capacity as a reserve.

In accordance with the project, annual fixed costs of the plant are C (thousand rubles/year), and the variables are Y (rubles/piece). Market price bricks at the time of plant design is determined as Zр (rub./pcs.). Predicted studies show that by the start of operation of the plant, the price of bricks will change: from min = 1.14 to max = 1.2. Capital investments in the creation of a plant are defined as K (thousand rubles). The capital investment efficiency rate (En) established by the company is 0.20. The expected demand for bricks is 1.25 M. The value of inflation expectations can be neglected. All data is presented in table 2.9.

Table 2.9

Initial data on the production program

Table 2.1

a - change in the commodity mass supplied by competitors to the market, share of units;

af - the market share of the new company in relation to the volume of the commodity mass of the base period, share of units;

Kats - coefficient price elasticity of demand for goods, share of units;

D - coefficient changes in the income of consumers of the product, share of units;

Cad - coefficient elasticity of the product according to consumer income, share of units.

All necessary calculations carried out in two ways:

a) with cost pricing;

b) with market pricing.

In the calculations, we assume that the planned production of bricks is 85% of the production capacity of the enterprise, and taxes are determined as =0.215 of the value fixed costs(conditionally constant annual taxes) and =0.28 of the enterprise’s balance sheet profit (variable taxes depending on production activities enterprises).

It is necessary to determine the value of the following indicators characterizing the effectiveness of the future business:

Annual production program;

Expected selling price of bricks per unit of production;

Annual revenue from the sale of bricks;

Annual variable operating costs;

Conditionally constant current costs per unit of production;

Cost of production per unit of production;

Annual production cost commercial products;

The amount of annual balance sheet profit of the enterprise

Profitability of brick production;

Annual production program for self-sufficiency of the enterprise’s activities;

Characteristics and degree of reliability of the future business;

The amount of the annual total tax (in the absence of tax benefits);

Annual production program for the self-sufficiency of the enterprise, taking into account its taxation;

The share of revenue remaining at the disposal of the enterprise after paying taxes;

The share of balance sheet profit withdrawn to the budget as taxes (total tax as a percentage of balance sheet profit);

Efficiency ratio and payback period of capital investments (taking into account the risk of business).

After all the calculations carried out, it is necessary to draw a conclusion about the feasibility of the business (the main production indicators are given in the table).

The results of the calculations performed are presented in a summary table. Construct a graph of costs and production results depending on the production program of the enterprise. Compare the obtained calculation results for various types pricing and draw conclusions to explain the discrepancies in these results.

A) Based on cost pricing.

Let us determine the annual production program of the plant using the formula:

q = Km * M = 0.85 * 10,000 = 8500 thousand units, (2.6)

where: M is the annual production capacity of the enterprise;

Km - production capacity utilization factor.

Let's determine the expected price of one brick using the formula:

Z = 0.5 * (1.14 + 1.20) * 0.823 = 0.9629 rub./piece.

Let's determine the annual revenue from the sale of bricks using the formula:

B = q * Z (2.8)

B = 8,500,000 * 0.9629 = 8,184,735 rubles/year.

Let's determine the annual variable costs enterprises according to the formula:

Uper = Y * q (2.9)

Uper = 0.220 * 8,500,000 = 1,870,000 rubles/year.

Let us determine the conditionally fixed costs per unit of production using the formula:

c = C: q (2.10)

c = 2,500,000: 8,500,000 = 0.294118 rub./piece.

Let us determine the cost of production per unit of production using the formula:

s = Y + c (2.11)

s = 0.220 + 0.294118 = 0.514118 rub./pc.

Let us determine the cost of annual marketable products using the formula:

S = s * q (2.12)

S = 0.514118 * 8,500,000 = 4,370,000 rubles/year

Let's determine the amount of the enterprise's annual balance sheet profit using the formula:

Pb = q * (Z - s) (2.13)

Pb = 8,500,000 * (0.9629 - 0.514118) = 3,814,735 rubles/year.

Let's determine the profitability of brick production using the formula:

Ri = (Z - s) : s (2.14)

Ri = (0.9629 - 0.514118) : 0.514118 = 0.8729, or 87.29%

Let us determine the annual production program for the self-sufficiency of the enterprise’s activities using the formula:

Qc = C: (Z - Y) (2.15)

Qc = 2,500,000: (0.9629 - 0.220) = 3,365,145 units/year.

We will determine the characteristics and degree of reliability of the future business. The ratio of production capacity to the self-sufficiency production program is:

M/Qc = 10,000,000 / 3,365,145 = 2.97

The resulting figure indicates that the business takes into account the uncertainty of the future market situation and will be quite reliable, since its risk level is below average, and the adjustment rate for the efficiency of capital expenditures Ep, which takes into account the risk of investments, is:

Er = Km*En = 0.85 * 0.20 = 0.17.

Let's determine the amount of the enterprise's annual total tax (in the absence of tax benefits) using the formula:

N = Npos + Nper = * C + * Pb (2.16)

H = 0.215 * 2,500,000 + 0.28 * 3,814,735 = 1,605,626 rubles/year.

Let us determine the annual production program for self-sufficiency, taking into account taxation, using the formula:

Qc = = 4,370,015 pcs./year.

The result obtained indicates that, taking into account taxation, the self-sufficiency production program has increased significantly (from 3,365,145 to 4,370,015 units/year), i.e. increased by 1.3 times. This significantly reduces the amount of net profit and increases the risk of investing in this business.

Let us determine the share of revenue remaining at the disposal of the enterprise after paying taxes using the formula:

Let us substitute the initial and calculated data into this formula (18) and obtain:

This means that after paying taxes, almost 27% of all revenue remains at the disposal of the enterprise, or:

Оn*B = 0.27 * 8,184,735 = 2,209,109 rubles/year.

Let's determine the total tax as a percentage of book profit using the formula:

n = N / Pb (2.19)

n = 1,605,626 / 3,814,735 = 0.4209, or 42%

This is a fairly high result, which allows us to conclude that almost 42% of balance sheet profit remains for the enterprise for social and industrial development.

Let us determine the efficiency ratio and payback period of capital investments, taking into account the risk of business, using the following formulas:

Let's substitute the available data into formula (2.20) and get:

Consequently, taking into account the risk, the efficiency of capital investments fully satisfies the requirements of the theory and the limitation of the efficiency norm established by the entrepreneur. Now you can determine the payback period of capital investments using formula (2.21):

The future business project provides the entrepreneur with enough high income and can be recommended for sale taking into account the uncertainty of the future market situation and investment risk. Using the calculated data, we will construct a graph of the dependence of costs and production results on the volume of output (Fig. 2.1).

Fig.2.1.

B) Based on market pricing.

1) First of all, it is necessary, based on the initial data and taking into account the adopted production program, to determine the price of one brick using the following formula:

2) Since the resulting value does not represent the price of the brick itself, but its index, to finally determine the desired price value it is necessary to carry out the following calculation operation:

Z = Z * d = 0.9629 * 0.8194 = 0.789 rub./pc.

3) Let’s determine the company’s revenue using the formula:

B = q * Z = 8,500,000 * 0.789 = 6,706,572 rubles/year.

4) The cost of one brick remains unchanged, i.e. the same as with cost pricing, and amounts to:

s = 0.514118 rub./pc.

5) The cost of annual commodity output also remains unchanged:

S = 4,370,000 rub./year.

6) Determine the annual balance sheet profit using the formula:

Pb = q * (Z - s) = 8,500,000 * (0.789 - 0.514118) = 2,336,572 rubles/year.

7) Let’s determine the profitability of brick manufacturing using the formula:

Ri = (Z - s) : s = (0.789 - 0.514118) : 0.514118 = 0.5346.

8) Determine the amount of the annual total tax using the formula:

N = * C + * Pb = 0.215 * 2,500,000 + 0.28 * 2,336,572 = 1,191,740 rub./year.

9) Let us determine the share of revenue remaining at the disposal of the enterprise using formula (2.18):

0.1251 or 13%

Thus, after settlement with the budget, the enterprise will have approximately 13% of revenue at its disposal, or:

B*On = 6,706,572 * 0.1251 = 838,832 rubles/year.

10) Determine the total tax as a percentage of book profit using the formula:

N = N / Pb = 1,191,740 / 2,336,572 = 0.5100, or 51%.

11) Let us determine the efficiency coefficient and payback period of capital investments using formulas (2.20) and (2.21):

In conditions of market pricing, business is not sufficiently profitable and reliable.

Let's compare the calculated results for cost and market pricing with each other and present all the information in Table 2.10.

Table 2.10

Calculation results for cost and market pricing

Indicator name	Indicator value
with cost pricing	at market pricing
1) Annual production program, thousand pieces.
2) Price per unit of production, rub./piece.
3) Annual revenue of the enterprise, rub./year
4) Annual variable costs, rub./year
5) Conditionally fixed costs, rub./piece.
6) Cost per unit of production, rub./piece.
7) Cost of commercial products, rub./year
8) Annual balance sheet profit, rub./year
9) Profitability of brick production, %
10) Self-sufficiency production program, pcs./year
11) Adjustment rate of efficiency for investment risk
12) Annual total tax, rub./year
13) Production program of self-sufficiency taking into account taxation, pcs./year
14) Share of revenue remaining at the disposal of the enterprise, %
15) Total tax in relation to balance sheet profit, %
16) Efficiency ratio of capital expenditures taking into account risk (at En + Ep = 0.37)
17) Payback period of capital investments, years

Conclusion

The obtained result indicates that in conditions of market pricing, production efficiency indicators with fixed initial data are worse than in conditions of cost pricing. This is explained by the fact that the price of a product decreases with an increase in the total mass on the market, therefore, all indicators formed on the basis of the price of a product deteriorate (revenue, balance sheet profit, production profitability, etc.).

At the same time, it can be stated that with market pricing after taxes, the enterprise has less Money For further development. It should be emphasized that in this case, under market pricing conditions entrepreneurial project cannot be considered appropriate future business- not efficient and reliable.

The most profitable business in the world: 3 determining factors + 3 profitable directions business in Russia + Top 7 ideas from around the world.

Every aspiring businessman at the start asks the question, what is the most profitable business in the world?

We will try to answer it by identifying directions entrepreneurial activity, which are considered the most promising.

By what criteria can a business be called the most profitable?

Before determining the main directions, it is necessary to identify factors indicating that the business idea will be profitable:

Speedy return on investment.

This fact plays a significant role.

A profitable business is a project in which investments pay off in the shortest possible time.

Increased demand.

The success of a business depends on many factors.

It is impossible to name ideas that will give a 100% guarantee of success.

But it is possible to identify such goods or services, the demand for which is initially at a high level.

As a rule, we are talking about essential items.

Minimal investments in raw materials and production.

It is logical that the less finance an entrepreneur needs to invest in a business, the more benefits he will receive.

This is especially important when there is a link to the exchange rate.

If you already have your own business and it has at least two of these signs, you can rejoice - your business is potentially profitable.

What if you are just taking your first steps and don’t yet know which direction to go?

A review of the most popular ones will help you make a choice. profitable ideas in different areas of business.

Small Business: Review of Profitable Ideas

Almost all newcomers start with a small business.

It requires a relatively small investment, a modest material base (premises, staff, equipment).

It’s easy to register such activities – you can do it on your own, even without a legal education.

Therefore, it is obvious that we should consider the most profitable ideas from this area of ​​business activity.

a) Essential goods and services are a profitable business even during a crisis

Let's remember one of the factors that determines the profitability of a business: .

Areas that are related to satisfying primary human needs remain relevant even in times of financial crisis.

As you can see, food, clothing and shoes are what people spend their income on first.

It is worth adding that the cost of medicines is small only because in an ordinary family they are purchased relatively infrequently (if there are no members with chronic diseases).

However, pharmaceuticals are also essential goods.

If the need arises, people are ready to “give their last,” but buy the necessary pills and the like.

Conclusion: potentially profitable business– grocery store, pharmacy kiosk, clothing and footwear trade.

b) Auto repair shop - a profitable business idea

After some time, every car requires repairs or routine inspection.

Therefore, repair shops can also be classified as services for which the demand is initially high.

Thanks to this, you do not have to convince the client that visiting an auto repair shop is what he needs by listing the benefits for the person.

It's enough to stand out among your competitors.

A service station can offer a number of basic services:

• cleaning injectors;
• repair and inspection of electrical equipment;
• repair of fuel and brake systems;
• replacing spark plugs;
• headlight adjustment

And this is only a part of the possible services.

And if you open a car wash next to the service station, the business will be doubly profitable.

Among the advantages of the business, it is also worth noting that in addition to a large service station with a large capital investment, you can open a simple mobile tire service.

And such a business will still be profitable and in demand.

Still in doubt? Pay attention to the “age” statistics on cars in Russia:

c) How profitable is the vending business?

There is a lot of debate regarding the profitability of the vending business.

On the one hand, it exactly corresponds to one of the factors of a profitable business given at the beginning of the text: the entrepreneur is not required to make a large investment - it is enough to spend money on the purchase and installation of a miracle machine, and only replenish consumables from time to time.

Moreover, if previously they offered a short list of services, now you can do literally anything with their help:

• sell coffee, tea, and other drinks;
• sell food products;
• top up accounts mobile phones, electronic wallets;
• pay public utilities and much more.

Why is it controversial that this business is profitable?

Please note the distribution of vending machines across Russia:

As you can see, Moscow and St. Petersburg are open to innovation, and people do not find the use of automatic machines repellent.

While in other cities, there is mainly demand only for payment and coffee machines.

Accordingly, there is high competition in these areas of business.

If you take your place, successfully choosing the location of the device, you have the opportunity to become the owner of a very profitable business:

Top 7 most profitable business ideas in the world

As already mentioned, it is impossible to determine the most profitable business in the world that provides a 100% guarantee of success.

However, it is quite possible to conduct a thorough analysis of existing entrepreneurial trends in order to get inspired.

That is why we will look at the top 10 business ideas, the implementation of which brought their founders wealth and recognition in the world. Who are these people?

1) Profitable online store “Amazon”

This ranking opens with Jeffrey Bezos, a businessman from the United States who is considered one of the richest people on the planet.

His capital is $70.3 billion.

This fortune was brought to him by the name “Amazon”.

A profitable business was based on selling books via the Internet.

The interesting thing is that only $300,000 of the initial investment was invested in the idea.

Unexpectedly for Jeffrey himself, after some time, the project began to bring in huge capital.

This opened up the opportunity to expand our activities.

Now this online store is known throughout the world: https://www.amazon.com/.

2) The sweet kingdom of Michel Ferrero.

“Silver” goes to the Ferrero company, the founder of which is Italian businessman Michele Ferrero.

According to Forbes, Michel Ferrero's capital is 600 billion rubles.

What brought such success to the businessman?

A regular chocolate butter that became something new and magical in the grocery industry during that era.

On this moment Ferrero produces products from equally well-known brands:

• "Ferrero Rochen";
• "Tic-Tac";
• "Raffaello"
• “Kinder surprise” and others.

Russians can learn more about the business on the website: https://www.ferrero.ru/

3) Idea on billion: storage cells.

Bronze goes to a businessman from South America Brad Hughes. He earned his capital (about 200 billion rubles) thanks to a business that now seems commonplace.

It's about keeping things in certain place(along highways) for a certain fee.

Thanks to the Public Storage company, it has become possible to store your belongings in specially designated safe places in more than thirty countries around the world.

If you need services of this nature or are interested in business details, visit the company’s official website: https://www.publicstorage.com/.

4) Can toys be profitable?

American businessman Ty Warner earned his capital of 146 billion rubles thanks to a project that can easily be included in the ideas of himself profitable business in the world.

Its condition is based on its manufacture soft toys"Beanie Babie"

This product is produced in single copies and has the status of a collector's item, so it is very expensive.

Buying one such toy can cost 10,000 – 60,000 rubles, while the cost of creating it does not exceed 600 rubles.

Secret of success?

Exclusivity!

Warner toys cannot be found in regular stores.

And even more so, you will not find two identical copies.

5) How to become billionaires through one product?

The names Dietrich Mateschitz and Kaleo Juvidiha should be familiar to nocturnalists, athletes and young people who like to drink energy drinks from time to time.

The fact is that they are the creators of the world-famous energy drink “Red Bull”.

The drink has a rather simple composition:

• water;
• glucose;
• caffeine;
• vitamin B.

But this was enough for the idea to be awarded the title of one of the most profitable options business in the world and brought its creators recognition and capital of 110 billion rubles.

6) Another profitable business on sweets

Brothers Paul and Hans Reigel invented chewable gum candies in various shapes and flavors.

Hans came up with 260 types of these sweets!

Sweets are made almost all over the world.

Each of the founders, thanks to this idea, has a capital of about 1.5 billion dollars.

7) Profitable business on regular coffee

To achieve this, Schultz opened a line of coffee shops.

Currently, the Starbucks chain consists of 12,000 stores!

The capital earned from this profitable business is $1.1 billion.

Official website of the company: https://www.starbucks.com/

And to open your own profitable business, use the tips from the video:

How to make your business profitable?

If for some reason your business does not generate the desired income, pay attention to the following ways to make it profitable:

1. Make a graph of expenses and profits - this will allow you to determine which area of ​​​​the business is stealing the most. Try to reduce it.
2. Constantly improve your own qualifications and the interest of your subordinates in their work.
3. Carry out a set of measures to prevent theft at work.
4. Divide the business into segments, and identify a responsible person in each area.
5. Launch a PR company to attract more clients.
6. Buy new, better equipment.
7. Raise workers' wages - this will help provoke greater returns on their part;
8. Secure all company data located in in electronic format. This will save you from financial losses in the future.

To sum it up, we can say that the most profitable business in the world is the one that you put your heart and hard work into.

Nothing is given for nothing; you have to work at every task.

Remember that there is always a place for young entrepreneurs!

Therefore, you should implement your bold ideas for a profitable business without any fear.

Useful article? Don't miss new ones!
Enter your email and receive new articles by email

There are three options for investing capital. In the first option, out of 120 cases, the profit is 800 UAH. was received in 40 cases, a profit of 200 UAH. – in 80 cases. In the second option, out of 180 cases, the profit is 600 UAH. was received in 100 cases, the profit was 450 UAH. – in 60 cases, profit 300 UAH. – in 20 cases. In the third option, out of 100 cases, the profit is 300 UAH. was received in 50 cases, the profit was 260 UAH. – in 30 cases, profit 220 UAH. – in 20 cases.

Choose the most profitable investment option.

Solution.

To find the most profitable investment option, you need to find the expected profit using the formula for calculating the mathematical expectation:

For the first option, the probability of making a profit is 800 UAH. will be:

The probability of making a profit is 200 UAH. will be:

The sum of all probabilities for the first option is equal to one.

As a result, the expected profit under the first option will be equal to:

The expected profit under the second option will be equal to:

The expected profit under the third option will be equal to:

Conclusion: The most profitable investment option is the second option.

Problem 2

The board of a car manufacturing company must make a strategic decision about the future production profile. There are four preference options: cars, trucks, minibuses, sports cars. Depending on the market situation, experts determined the following profit indicators (table);

Based on the rules of risk minimization - the criterion of pessimism-optimism, the rule of minimax risk and Laplace's rule, select the most profitable strategy.

Solution.

Laplace criterion .

This criterion is based on calculating the mathematical expectation in the absence of the probability of occurrence of options - the arithmetic mean value is determined by the formula
:

Strategy 1.
c.u.

Strategy 2.
c.u.

Strategy 3.
c.u.

Strategy 4.
c.u.

Since the optimality criterion is the maximum value of the average expected value, the strategy for producing trucks is the best.

Criterion of pessimism - optimism .

We assume that the probability of the occurrence of an event in which the profit is minimal is 0.70, then the probability of the occurrence of an event in which the profit is maximum is 0.30.

The expected profit value is determined by the formula
:

for the passenger car production strategy:

for truck production strategy:

for minibus production strategy:

for sports car production strategy:

Since the highest expected profit corresponds to the truck production strategy, based on this criterion, this strategy is optimal.

Minimax risk criterion .

To solve the problem according to the minimax risk criterion, it is necessary to determine the maximum value of the profit indicator for each option and subtract from it the corresponding values ​​for other options. The second stage is to determine the maximum difference value for each strategy, i.e. lost benefits. The minimum value of the maximum values ​​of lost benefits will correspond to the optimal strategy.

Calculation of lost profit indicators (cu)

Based this criterion, the optimal strategy for the production of passenger cars.

Problem 3

An entrepreneur faces a choice regarding how much to purchase: 400 or 500 units. When purchasing 400 units, the purchase price is 90 UAH, and when purchasing 500 units. – 70 UAH. The entrepreneur will sell this product for 110 UAH. for a unit. The demand for the product is not known exactly: the probability of selling 400 and 500 units is initially estimated at 60:40. All goods not sold on time can be returned for 30 UAH.

How many units of goods need to be purchased? What is the price for additional sales information?

Solution.

The profit for the purchase of 400 units of goods and the demand for goods in the amount of 400 units will be

The profit from the purchase of 400 units of goods and the demand for goods in the amount of 500 units will also be 8,000 UAH.

The average expected profit for the purchase of 400 units of goods is determined by the formula for calculating the mathematical expectation:

The profit for the purchase of 500 units of goods and the demand for goods in the amount of 400 units will be:

The profit for the purchase of 500 units of goods and the demand for goods in the amount of 500 units will be

The average expected profit for the purchase of 500 units of goods is determined by the formula:

Data calculation

A risk-averse person will choose a purchase volume of 500 units of goods. A risk-neutral person will choose a purchase volume of 500 units of goods, since with this purchase volume the average expected profit is higher. A risk-averse person will also choose a purchase volume of 500 units of goods, since with any demand the profit will be greater (12,000 or 20,000 UAH) than 8,000 UAH. when purchasing 400 units of goods. Wherein Additional Information about future demand is not needed. Let's confirm this with calculations.

The cost of additional information is defined as the difference between the expected profit under conditions of certainty and the expected profit under conditions of uncertainty.

The expected profit under conditions of certainty (that is, when the volume of demand is precisely known - 400 or 500 units) will be .

The expected profit in conditions of uncertainty will be 15,200 UAH.

Cost of additional information: , i.e. information should not be purchased.

Problem 4

By providing a loan to a company, a forecast of possible losses and corresponding probability values ​​is made. Numerical data are presented in the table.

Initial data

Determine the expected amount of risk, that is, losses.

Solution.

The amount of risk (expected damage) is determined by the formula
:

those. the company should not provide a loan, since the expected loss is 16 thousand UAH.

Problem 7.1. There are investments in the amount of 5 million rubles. Banks offer to place capital for two years, but one offers to invest money at 20% per annum, taking into account simple interest at the end of each year, the second - at 20% per annum, but with quarterly compounding. Determine the future cost of capital and choose the best option.

1. Determine the future value when calculating simple interest:

TO t= K(1+E t) = 5 (1+0.2∙2) = 7.0 million rubles.

2. Let’s determine the growth rate (capitalization):

3. Let’s determine the future value when calculating compound interest:

Conclusion: the second option is more profitable.

Problem 7.2. The depositor has 100 thousand rubles, free throughout the year. The bank offers three options for investing money for a period of two years at 24% per annum: with interest capitalization at the end of the next month, the next quarter, the next six months. Determine the best investment option.

1. Let’s determine the future value of money with monthly capitalization:

2. Let’s determine the future value of money with quarterly capitalization:

3. Let’s determine the future value of money with semi-annual capitalization:

Conclusion: the first option is the best.

Problem 7.3. The initial amount is 100 thousand rubles, the final amount is 121 thousand rubles. Determine at what percentage you need to put money in the bank for 2 years.

Let's determine the percentage that will make it possible to receive 121 thousand rubles:

Problem 7.4. Determine how much you should deposit in the bank today at 10% per annum, so that in 2 years you will have 121 thousand rubles.

Let's determine the current amount of money:

Problem 7.5. The investor has a free amount of 100 thousand rubles. He wants to receive 121 thousand rubles. The bank offers to invest money at 10% per annum with capitalization of interest after the next year. Determine how many years later the investor will be able to receive the desired amount?

Let us determine the number of years to obtain the desired amount.

From the formula we derive:

Problem 7.6. The bank offers 25% per annum. Determine the discount factor and the initial deposit so that after 3 years you will have 100 thousand rubles in your account.

1. Let's determine the discount factor:

2. Determine the initial contribution:

Problem 7.7. Two options are offered for making capital investments for the construction of a new workshop, corresponding to different technologies. Construction period – 3 years. The amount of costs for the options is the same - 450 million rubles. Investments are made at the beginning of each year. According to the first option, the sequence of depositing funds is 150 million rubles. annually. According to the second option, the procedure for investing funds by year is 200, 150, 100 million rubles. Profitability is 10% per year. Determine the current cost of the options and choose the most preferable one.

1. Let’s determine the current value of funds according to the first option:

2. Let's determine the current value cash investments according to the second option:

Conclusion: Option I is the best; it requires a smaller initial amount.

Problem 7.8. The amount of invested capital is 900 thousand rubles, the duration of the investment is 4 years, the annual cash inflow is 300 thousand rubles, the interest rate is 10%. Determine net present value.

Problem 7.9. The amount of invested capital is 900 thousand rubles, the duration of the investment is 4 years. Cash inflow by year: 100, 200, 300, 400 thousand rubles. Interest rate – 10%. Determine the net present value and draw a conclusion about whether it is worth investing in this project.

Let's determine the net present value of invested capital:

Conclusion: an investor should not invest money because... the project is ineffective.

Problem 7.10. The organization is installing new equipment. Discount rate – 10%. Determine the net present value from its use according to the data in Table. 7.1.

Table 7.1

Let's determine the NPV from the use of equipment:

NPV = (14260 – 996)0.909+(15812 – 4233)0.826+(16662 – 10213)0.751+(18750 –

–11650)0.683+(26250 – 18400)0.621+(28750 – 20150)0.564 = 41050.30 thousand rubles.

Problem 7.11. The amount of capital investment is 900 thousand rubles, the duration of the investment is 4 years, the annual cash inflow is 300 thousand rubles, the interest rate is 10%. Determine the internal rate of return on capital and conclude whether the investment is effective.

1. Let’s determine the estimated value of the discounted factor:

2. Let’s determine the value of the discounted multiplier at E VNR = 12%:

3. Let us determine the value of the discounted multiplier at E VNR = 13%:

4. Let’s determine the internal rate of return:

Investments are effective because their internal rate of return (12.6%) is higher than the interest rate (10%).

Problem 7.12. The given integral effect is 3792 thousand rubles, and the given capital investments are 2212 thousand rubles. Determine net present value and profitability index.

1. Let's determine net present value:

NPV = IE adv. - To lead. = 3792 – 2212 = 1580 thousand rubles.

2. Let's determine the profitability index:

Problem 7.13. The discount rate (interest rate) at which the bank issues loans is 25%. Values ​​of net present value and profitability index.

Table 7.2

1. Let's define the given effect:

2. Let us determine the given investments taking into account their depreciation:

3. Let's determine net present value:

NPV = 884.81 – 328.73 = 556.08 thousand rubles.

4. Let's determine the profitability index:

Conclusion: the NPV value is positive, ID >1; the project is effective.

Problem 7.14. According to the first option, the total construction period is 4 years, the estimated cost is 40 million rubles; sequence of investment - 10 million rubles. annually. According to the second option, construction begins a year later and takes three years. The estimated cost is 42 million rubles, the procedure for investing funds by year is 6, 10, 26 million rubles. Investments are made at the end of each year. The standard for reducing multi-time costs is set at 10%. Determine the most effective option.

1. Let us determine the amount of capital investments according to the first option, reduced to the fourth year, i.e. by the year of completion of construction:

K 4 = 10(1+0.1) 3 + 10(1+0.1) 2 + 10 (1+0.1) 1 +10=46.41 million rubles.

2. Let us determine the amount of capital investments according to the second option, reduced to the third year, i.e. by the year of completion of construction:

K 3 = 6(1+0.1) 2 + 10 (1+0.1) 1 +26=44.26 million rubles.

Despite the higher cost, option II is the best.

Problem 7.15. The loan amount is 200 million rubles, the loan duration is 4 years, the annual interest rate is 20%, the share of capital investments by year is 0.25. There are two options for repaying a long-term loan: upon completion of the advance period; annually taking into account the interest rate. Determine the refund amount for the loan and choose the best refund option.

1. Let us determine the loan repayment amount for the option that provides for its payment at the end of the advance period:

2. Let us determine the loan repayment amount for the option that provides for the annual repayment of part of the loan:

Conclusion: the second option is the best, as it gives a smaller refund amount.

Problem 7.16. The contractor commissioned the facility under construction on September 1 with a contractual deadline of December 1 and negotiable price– 1000 million rubles. The expected efficiency of the facility is 0.12 rubles/rub. in year. In accordance with the contract agreement, the contractor must receive an additional payment in the amount of 0.5% of the completed investment for each month of accelerated commissioning. Determine the economic effect of early commissioning of the facility for the investor and contractor.

1. Let us determine the additional profit that the investor should receive for the additional time of operation of capital investments:

2. Let us determine the amount of additional payment that the investor is obliged to transfer to the contractor in connection with the early commissioning of the facility:

In order to create economic interest, the investor transfers to the contractor half of the profit received in connection with the early commissioning of the facility.

Problem 7.17. Overhead costs according to the estimate are 60 million rubles. The share of semi-fixed expenses is 0.5. The company can reduce the construction period of a facility from 12 to 10 months. Determine savings from reducing construction time.

Let's determine the savings from reducing the construction period:

Problem 7.18. Three options for capital investments in the construction of a plant are compared with different investments of funds by year (Table 7.3). Choose the most effective investment option if the rate of return on invested capital is 20%.

Table 7.3

Let us determine the amounts of discounted capital investments according to the following options:

Option III is the best; it requires less initial investment.

38. Analysis of the best and most efficient use of land

When assessing a land plot, it is necessary to determine its best and most efficient use (BNEI), which is determined by the interaction of a number of factors.

NNEI analysis involves researching alternative options for using a land plot and choosing the optimal one, taking into account the prospects of the location, the state of market demand, the cost of development, the stability of expected income, etc.

When assessing the value of an object that consists of a land plot and buildings on it, great importance is attached to the analysis of the NEI

1) supposedly vacant land plot; 2) a plot of land with existing improvements.

Analysis of a supposed vacant land plot is an important step in determining its value. It is based on establishing the most profitable option for using the land.

The most profitable and likely use of the site provides its highest value. Use cases must be cost-effective and legal.

Factors determining the optimal use of land:

1) location – has a major impact on the cost of the land plot (the prospects of the location and transport accessibility are taken into account);

2) market demand - this factor reflects the relationship between supply and demand in the market, is studied to justify the chosen option for using the land plot (prospects for market demand for the proposed use, types of taxes and other conditions). It is necessary to identify a market segment, and it is necessary to develop activities in it;

3) financial feasibility - implies the ability of the project to provide income from the use of the land. The income generated must be sufficient to reimburse investors' costs and to ensure the expected profit;

4) physical suitability of the site - this is the prospect of creating improvements - size, climate, topography, soil quality, environmental parameters, engineering-geological and hydrogeological characteristics of the site, existing zoning, etc.;

5) physical feasibility and technological feasibility - this is an analysis of the relationship between quality, costs and timing of the project, accessibility of transport, the likelihood of natural disasters, the ability to connect to utilities, taking into account the size and shape of the site;

6) legislative or legal admissibility is related to the compliance of the option for using the land plot with the current legislation. This admissibility is revealed as a result of the analysis of construction and environmental standards, restrictions on the number of storeys, the complexity of historical urban development in the area, possible changes in regulations, compliance with zoning rules, and negative sentiments of the local population;

7) maximum profitability, it is determined by discounting future income from alternative uses, taking into account the risk of investment.

This text is an introductory fragment. From the book Encyclopedia of the Temptress author Isaeva Victoria Sergeevna

Express seduction: NLP techniques for effective seduction Do you want to attract men at first sight? 1 minute - and he has already fallen for you. Just try NLP techniques for express seduction. Seduce on the first try In the old days, girls could sigh for years and

From the book Braids and Braids [Master Class for Professionals] author Kolpakova Anastasia Vitalievna

How to use 1. Gather your hair into a ponytail and secure it with an elastic band.2. Lower the elastic a little, loosening the base of the ponytail.3. Insert the topsy tool leg into the middle of the ponytail. The loop should be directed vertically upward (Fig. 10). Rice. 10. Using the topsy tool loop:

From the book Stervology. Short course for a busy bitch author Shatskaya Evgeniya

From the book Pickup. Seduction tutorial author Bogachev Philip Olegovich

From the book Philosophical Dictionary author Comte-Sponville Andre

From the book Russian Doctrine author Kalashnikov Maxim

5. Protectionism is a condition for the formation of an effective business community All, without exception, effective business communities in currently developed countries, as well as newly industrialized countries, were formed in conditions protected from external invasions

From the book Fiction Book Designer 3.2. Book Creation Guide by Izekbis

From the book ELASTIX - communicate freely author Yurov Vladislav

Instructions for using phones Modern SIP phones are quite functional, but at the same time very easy to use. Modern devices can support the following functions: simultaneous connection to several Paging and Intercom stations (individual

From the book The Phenomenon of Kuznetsov’s Applicator [Encyclopedia of Needle Massage] author Ilyintsev I.V.

Part II Indications for needle massage and effective treatment schemes Below we provide medical indications and approximate schemes for the use of applicators. Special attention Please note that the use of applicators, as a rule, is only part of a complex

From the book Great Soviet Encyclopedia (KA) by the author TSB

From the book Market food products author Vlasova Olga Viktorovna

7.5. The importance of the sales system for the effective functioning of the market The state of the sales system largely determines the intensity and success of market processes. The effectiveness of market processes is determined at the macro and micro levels using a unified methodology and

From the book Etiquette. A complete set of rules of secular and business communication. How to behave in familiar and non-standard situations author Belousova Tatyana

Effective Negotiation Techniques The ability to communicate with people is a commodity that can be bought in the same way as we buy sugar or coffee. I will pay more for such a skill than for anything else in the world. John Rockefeller If during discussions one of the parties

From the book How to Manage Your Time author Vronsky A.I.

Part 3. Reasonable lifestyle as a factor effective management

From the book Marketing: Cheat Sheet author author unknown

46. ​​FORMATION OF AN EFFECTIVE ASSORTMENT The main principle of forming an assortment is to consider each item from the point of view of customer satisfaction. No product should be bought just because it is very cheap, or “just in case”, or “so that

From the book Entertaining Time Management... or Managing by Playing author Abramov Stanislav

5.1. Example of an effective monthly plan In table. Figure 5.1 shows an example of a Monthly Plan as the main model of our activities, the main playing field (results for the first four days). The plan consists of two parts: Planning Part (Column A) and Diary Columns (D...

From the book 3D printing in small business author Gorkov Dmitry

Advantages of using 3D printing You have probably already heard from the TV screen or from publications on the Internet that 3D printing has some advantages and is generally a magic wand. Is this so? The main niche of use is piece/small-scale