The volume of the global arms market from 2012 to 2016 reached its highest level since cold war, follows from the report of the Stockholm international institute SIPRI. Russia is the second exporting country after the USA with a market share of 23%
Global arms transfers between 2012 and 2016 reached their highest level in any five-year period since the Cold War, according to a report by the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). According to the institute, the volume of deliveries increased by 8.4% compared to 2007-2011. Despite the increase in volume in 2012-2016, the volume of arms transfers is 16.6% less than in the last five-year period of the Cold War - 1987-2016. 1991
Experts named the Middle East as the fastest growing market - over five years, its share in arms imports increased by 86% and amounted to 29% of the world market.
Top three export leaders
According to SIPRI, the top five suppliers account for almost three-quarters (74%) of the global arms market. The export leaders over the past five years have been the USA, Russia and China. The United States accounts for a third of all global arms exports. Since 2012, Washington's share of the arms trade has grown by 21%. As Aude Fleurant, director of the SIPRI arms and military expenditures program, notes, the main share in the supply of American weapons is attack aircraft, equipped with cruise missiles and precision-guided munitions, the latest generation air and missile defense systems.
Fifth generation multi-role fighter F-22 Raptor (Photo: Wolfgang Rattay/Reuters)
Russia's share in 2012-2016 was 23% of the total. The majority of supplies (70%) come from “traditional” Russian partners - India, Vietnam, China and Algeria. Russia's share is gradually decreasing: in the last Five-Year Plan it was 24.2%, and in 2002-2006 - 26.2% of all world arms supplies. At the same time, Russia’s share in global arms imports increased from 0.1% in 2007-2011 to 0.5% in 2012-2016.
China, in turn, took third place in the world ranking (6.2% of global volume), pushing aside France and Germany, supplying 6 and 5.6% of weapons, respectively. According to the report, France's market share continues to decline due to the end of several major contracts signed over the past five years.
Record-breaking importers
The leaders in imports are Asian countries, according to the institute’s analysts: 43% of the world volume. The main importer is India: according to SIPRI, it purchases 13% of all weapons in the world. As experts point out, India's share is much higher than that of regional competitors - Pakistan and China. The PRC, in turn, is gradually replacing imported weapons with its own, emphasizes Simon Wezeman, senior researcher at the SIPRI arms and military expenditure program.
SIPRI recorded the greatest growth compared to the previous five-year period in the Middle East region. The leaders in the region remain Saudi Arabia (+212%) and Qatar (+245%). According to experts from the institute, Middle Eastern countries continue to buy weapons, despite the established situation in 2016 low prices for oil. At the same time, as SIPRI senior researcher Peter Wezeman points out, countries are trying to improve the technical equipment of their armed forces. The opposite is evidenced by the data provided in the investigation by the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN). According to data obtained by journalists, the countries of the region (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey and Jordan) spent €1.2 billion on the purchase of obsolete weapons in Eastern European countries, primarily in Croatia and the Czech Republic. As BIRN points out, the weapons were intended to support militants in Syria and Iraq.
Questions for assessment
According to Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, the SIPRI methodology is not universal. “The Stockholm Institute does not consider, for example, non-combat systems - radar systems and so on,” the expert points out. Therefore, Pukhov believes, the results of SIPRI can only be perceived in conjunction with other data.
While SIPRI's open data approach has its limitations, the Stockholm institute is the most reliable source, says independent military analyst Anton Lavrov. “Not all transactions can be calculated in this way - this is especially true for African countries and non-democratic regimes,” the expert clarifies.
What is SIPRI and how does it count?
The Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) maintains databases of arms transfers around the world. Information on the sale of weapons is included in the database only if the fact of delivery is reliable. SIPRI is funded by the Swedish government and receives grants from other sources.
Since 1969, the institute has published the SIPRI Yearbook (in Russian, the publication is published jointly with the Institute of World Economy and international relations RAS). The publication provides an overview global market weapons, the disarmament process and the international security situation based on data from open sources.
The Stockholm Institute also ranks the world's top 100 arms manufacturers. To calculate a manufacturer's place in the ranking, conventional units are used - an indicator indicator expressed in US dollars and 1990 prices. Thus, according to the researchers, it is possible to derive comparable indicators for a long period.
April agenda
April was marked by two reasons for closer attention to the potential for Russian arms supplies to other countries. The first reason is the agreement with Turkey on the export of the S-400 complex. The second is the international arms exhibition Defexpo India 2018, which took place in India.
During his recent visit to Turkey, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that deliveries of the S-400 will take place (and at an accelerated pace) in July this year. At the end of 2017, Turkey entered into preliminary agreements with Russia for the purchase of two S-400 batteries, which will be serviced by Turkish military personnel. Russia will partially finance this deal, the amount of which is estimated at $2.5 billion. According to the plan, the S-400 will be put on combat duty in Turkey in 2020.
In addition to the Turkish contract, news also periodically appears about possible deliveries of the Russian S-400 complex to Saudi Arabia and Iraq, and in early April the first regiment of S-400s previously purchased by Beijing began to arrive in China.
As for the Defexpo India 2018 exhibition, since India is the leading arms importer in the world (12% of global purchases), this event is of great interest to arms manufacturers and military experts. Russia, like other countries, pins its hopes on the sale of military products to Delhi and is ready to actively speak at the event.
The Rosoboronexport delegation at Defexpo India 2018 is headed by Deputy general director company Igor Sevastyanov, who stated: “Participation in Defexpo India for Rosoboronexport is one of the most important marketing events of the year. We expect to discuss the prospects and implementation of a number of important joint projects in more than 200 current key areas in the field of military-technical cooperation between our countries. The subject of the exhibition is of particular interest to us given the fact that Russia occupies a significant share of the Indian market in the arms and military equipment For navy and ground forces."
The greatest prospects in the arms market of India and the countries of Southeast Asia are the T-90C and T-90MS tanks, the TOS-1A heavy flamethrower system, the Kornet-E and Kornet-EM anti-tank missile systems, as well as the latest series of Kalashnikov assault rifles . At Defexpo India 2018, potential buyers are expected to pay close attention to the Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile and gun system and the Tor-M2E anti-aircraft missile system.
Today, India also operates about 400 units of Russian helicopters. General Director of the Russian Helicopters holding, Andrey Boginsky, noted on the eve of Defexpo India 2018: “During the negotiations, we plan to devote special attention issues of after-sales service, repair and modernization of equipment previously delivered to India, we are preparing several signings on this topic. In addition, the implementation of a joint project will be discussed - a Russian-Indian enterprise for the assembly of the Ka-226T, registered in May last year. A presentation of the ship-borne Ka-226T will be held for our partners, which, we believe, could also be assembled within the framework of the joint venture.”
The big picture
As for the global market as a whole, a month ago the Stockholm Peace and Conflict Research Institute (SIPRI) published its latest report, from which it followed that in 2013–2017. the volume of Russian arms exports fell by 7.1% compared to 2008–2012. Russia's share in the global arms market, in turn, decreased by 4% in 2013–2017, to 22%. Key clients According to the report, Russia is favored by India (35%), China (12%) and Vietnam (10%). Russia supplies weapons to more than 100 countries.
For comparison, the United States, our main competitors in the arms market, during this time increased its share by 4% (from 30 to 34%). US arms exports increased by 25%. Saudi Arabia (18%), the United Arab Emirates (UAE) (7.4%) and Australia (6.7%) purchase the most weapons from the United States. About 49% of American military exports go to the Middle East. The states supply their products to 98 countries.
If we talk about the amounts of contracts, Vladimir Kozhin, assistant to the Russian President for military-technical cooperation, gave the following figures: “For this year they (delivery plans) are of approximately the same order, and last year the order portfolio did not decrease - it is about $45 billion, signed new contracts worth more than $16 billion.”
In March, Vladimir Putin chaired a meeting of the Commission on Military-Technical Cooperation of the Russian Federation with Foreign States, at which he announced that the volume of foreign supplies of weapons and military equipment Russian production growing for the third year in a row, and in 2017 it amounted to more than $15 billion.
Experts note that domestic demand for military products is reaching a ceiling and Russia will one way or another have to focus on developing arms exports, entering into fierce competition with other global players.
Where else?
Among the recent successes of this year, one can note the visit of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to Myanmar in January this year and the signing of a contract for the supply of six Su-30 fighter jets to this country.
In January, the Indian Minister of Defense approved the purchase of 240 adjustable aerial bombs for the Indian Air Force from the Russian JSC Rosoboronexport. The purchase cost will be $197.4 million. This ammunition, designed to destroy especially fortified targets - objects in the mountains, buried command posts, underground bunkers, weapons depots, reinforced concrete shelters, has proven itself well in Syria.
In February, a contract was signed for the purchase of 11 Su-35 multirole fighters for the Indonesian Air Force. The deal is valued at $1.14 billion, of which $570 million will be covered by supplies of Indonesian commodities.
In March of this year, Algerian media reported that licensed assembly of Russian T-90S/SK tanks in Egypt should begin in the 4th quarter of 2019. Egypt will receive and assemble 400 T-90S/SK main battle tanks at its enterprises.
T-90S/SK tanks, like other equipment, are also already being supplied to Iraq, and deliveries of these vehicles by agreement to Vietnam are next in line.
At the end of March, Rosoboronexport announced the start of promotion of the newest Russian air defense system Viking (Buk-M3) to foreign markets. The firing range of the new complex was increased to 65 kilometers, the number of simultaneously fired targets was increased by 1.5 times - 6 air targets with each self-propelled firing system, the number of anti-aircraft guided missiles ready to launch in a firing position consisting of two combat units increased from 8 to 18.
Bouncing elbows with the Americans
The main struggle between Russia and the United States in the field of military supplies is taking place in India. According to SIPRI, from 2012 to 2016, India was the world's top arms importer, accounting for 13% of all sales. India imported 68% of its weapons from Russia and only 14% from the United States. Of course, the Americans would like to increase their share. India is also looking to diversify its suppliers and is forging relationships with Israel, France, Spain and South Korea.
By 2025, India, as stated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, plans to spend $250 billion on modernizing its armed forces. The game is worth the candle.
In addition to the MiG-35, Russia plans to supply S-400 systems, 200 Ka-226T helicopters, 48 Mi-17V-5, two aircraft radar detection and control of the A-50EI, eight Su-35 aircraft, four ships of Project 11356, as well as the modernization of the Su-30MKI and deck-based MiG-29K already available in India. According to the Indian newspaper The Economic Times, arms supplies worth $10.5 billion are at stake.
In Russia's favor in the struggle for the Indian market are the long history of military-technical cooperation, the presence of an established base for repair and maintenance of equipment, the quality and relative cheapness of the weapons offered.
The Americans seriously entered the Indian market only in 2013, selling almost $2 billion worth of weapons - five years earlier, sales amounted to only hundreds of millions of dollars. In addition to India's desire to diversify supplies and localize military production at home, US strategic plans to contain China played a role. The United States also, in theory, views India as a replacement for Pakistan in the fight against Afghan Islamists and as a significant player in putting pressure on Iran. In recent years, India has already ordered Apache helicopters from the United States, transport helicopters Chinook, P-8 anti-submarine aircraft, C-130 transport aircraft, Globemaster C-17 military transport aircraft, US Gulfstream-3 reconnaissance aircraft. In total, since 2008, India has purchased $15 billion worth of weapons from the United States.
Another country acts as a field for competition. The worsening relations between Turkey and the United States also gives Russia a good chance to gain a foothold in the Turkish market. What, in fact, is what the agreements on the supply of S-400 and the likely purchase by Turkey of Russian anti-tank missile systems"Cornet" and cooperation with Russia to strengthen the armor of Turkish tanks.
Sanctions and pressure
Not everything is smooth for Russia due to US pressure on potential buyers and in other countries. For example, last weekend, Lebanese Defense Minister Yacoub Sarraf returned to Lebanon from Moscow empty-handed. It was expected that he would arrive with signed agreements on interest-free supplies of Russian weapons (primarily tanks) to Lebanon, and before that, the possibility of opening Lebanese airspace to Russian aviation, permission to use ports and air bases, exchange of intelligence information, training of Lebanese military personnel with Russian military and cooperation in the fight against terrorism. The Lebanese Cabinet did not even discuss a potential deal in April, which is explained by the influence of the United States and Western countries on the country's Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri.
Representatives of Hezbollah are most outraged in Lebanon by the delay in signing agreements with Russia. For example, Lebanese parliament member Nawaf al-Musawi rhetorically asks why Lebanon does not buy weapons from Russia and China, why it does not sign an agreement with Russia, why it does not come under the “air umbrella” of Russia, meaning air defense systems and the presence of military aircraft in the country ? Hezbollah uses Assad's agreement with Russia as an example and wants the same for Lebanon, saying that if Russia wants to have naval and air bases in Lebanon, then Moscow must be given this opportunity.
The Asia Times resource writes that in Lebanon, not only Hezbollah, but also the Greek Orthodox community, socialists, and Arab nationalists listen to Russia. And given that the cash supply from Saudi Arabia is in question, the US and the EU are in no hurry to pour their resources into Lebanon because of Hezbollah and Iran is increasing its influence in Syria, then the money, weapons and geopolitical weight of Moscow may also appeal to the Lebanese man in the street.
Saudi Arabia is the main buyer of American weapons, and last October the world was rocked by news that the Saudis might buy $3.5 billion worth of Russian weapons. So far, everything has remained within the framework of intentions, and the very fact of such negotiations and the opportunity to enter the US-owned market Russian manufacturers is rather an easy blackmail of their American partners by the Saudis. Of course, the United States will not allow Saudi Arabia to become Moscow’s client.
Qatar also negotiated the purchase of the S-400 last year, but now, under US pressure, the deal is in big doubt.
Russian Presidential Assistant for Military-Technical Cooperation Vladimir Kozhin also spoke about how the United States is trying to disrupt Russia’s deals in Asia. According to him, for example, the Americans put pressure on Indonesia: “We are grateful to the military-political leadership of Indonesia for their firm position, which they were not afraid to openly express, including to their American partners... When everything was ready, the American partners entered the scene and put unprecedented pressure on the Indonesian side so that this contract (supply of the Su-35) would not take place.” Kozhin also mentioned the US attempts to influence Vietnam: “Let’s not remember the history of the relationship between Vietnam and the United States, and we observed last year what kind of activity was deployed by the United States in order to pull Vietnam towards itself and turn away from us.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was even more straightforward: “Sanctions against our defense industrial complex- this is clearly unfair and dishonest competition, because in parallel with these sanctions, the United States is “rushing” around the world and, through its ambassadors, is demanding that the countries of Latin America, Asia, and Africa refuse to purchase military equipment and weapons from us, conditioning this on the fact that the Americans compensate for the lack of appropriate equipment in a particular country. This is simply brutal exclusion from the market, and through methods of blackmail and ultimatums.”
So far, most Russian military analysts are convinced that sanctions will not have any impact on Russian arms sales to other countries. However, it is worth considering that so far the United States has not taken any real economic measures or military-political influence (unofficially, Washington warned Turkey that it would not sell it F-35 aircraft if the Turks bought Russian S-400s, and the United States also thought about how can influence India) on possible buyers of Russian weapons under its gradually enacted Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), and that "containing Russia" and trying to "remove" it from The geopolitical arena is still only at the very beginning. One cannot underestimate the capabilities of the United States and its allies, who are slowly swaying but sticking to their line.
New distant niches or mirages?
Quite often the possible prospects of Latin America for the supply of Russian weapons are mentioned, especially in light of American sanctions and US pressure on other countries cooperating with Russia. In theory, the Latin American market does not have such intense politically motivated competition, and Russia could go beyond its usual clients in Asia. But for now this is more a desirable than an actual direction of development.
According to a study by the British think tank Chatham House, Latin American countries accounted for only 4.6% of Russian arms exports from 2000 to 2016, and 80% of them went to Venezuela. Deliveries to Brazil and Peru were relatively noticeable in dollar terms, but only Nicaragua and Venezuela account for more than 60% of arms imports from Russia. For all other countries in the region, this figure does not exceed 20% at best. In Latin American countries, suppliers from Europe, the USA and Brazil dominate.
With Venezuela, the main buyer of Russian weapons in the region, Russia is also not doing well, since, for example, in 2015, 90% of this country’s arms imports came from China. In addition to competition from China, Venezuela’s deplorable economic situation poses a threat to Russian supplies.
In 2017, Alexander Mikheev, General Director of Rosoboronexport, noted what approaches Russia uses to obtain contracts: “From 2001 to the present day, weapons and military equipment worth more than 10 billion US dollars have been supplied to Latin American countries. In recent years, competition from American and European arms manufacturers has increased significantly in this region, but we are ready to fight for the customer. For this we use all modern marketing tools. We offer flexible financial schemes, including offsets, offset, trade-in, individual approach to each partner. Customers have confidence in us and highly value our high-quality after-sales service, ample modernization opportunities, as well as our willingness to provide any technical and legal advice in 24/7 format."
Latin America is interested, according to a representative of Rosoboronexport, in Russian aviation and helicopter technology, the use of which in Syria has increased attention to it from outside potential customers. Customers are also interested in Russian armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, KamAZ, Ural, UAZ vehicles and Tiger armored vehicles. Rosoboronexport is also promoting “Integrated Security Systems” to the Latin American market, which serve as a platform for integrated solutions in the field of cybersecurity, control of air and coastal zones, state borders, large administrative entities and facilities.
It is also worth noting that if we consider the African arms market, which Russia could also theoretically count on (in addition to the already traditional client in Algeria), then Moscow will have to take into account the fact that China is targeting this piece of the pie with its cheap weapons. France also remains a serious competitor in this area.
The main trump card of Russian weapons is the campaign in Syria, where Russia has tested more than 200 types of new weapons. After Russia began participating in the war in Syria, interest in Russian weapons increased sharply.
On the other hand, the United States is beginning to influence potential buyers; Washington is ready to make either competitive offers or dumping, and openly intimidate partners for connections with Russian companies. So far, this tactic has not worked in Indonesia, Turkey, Vietnam, Egypt, but the activity and determination of the United States to disrupt deals with Russia cannot be discounted.
These two factors have a neutralizing effect on the market balance and growth prospects for Russian arms exports.
Also an uncertain factor is the lack of reliable information on the operation of Russian air defense systems. When the United States fired cruise missiles at a Syrian air force base a year ago, Russian funds Air defenses were not officially activated. Israel regularly and effectively carries out air strikes on Syria without incurring significant losses. The air defense market is a tasty piece of the pie and all potential buyers pay special attention to it.
But here it should be noted that the same American-made Patriot systems have ambiguously proven themselves in Saudi Arabia, when they do not work properly when intercepting missiles launched by the Houthis in Yemen, or are not at all able to “cover” protected objects.
Last year, Chatham House made the following conclusions regarding the prospects for Russian arms exports in general:
- Russia is seeking to strengthen its position as an arms exporter in new markets.
- Russia, the world's second largest arms exporter with a wide range of products and a diverse order portfolio, will continue to occupy an important niche in the market in the near future and will remain a reliable supplier of weapons to those countries that do not have the warmest relations with the United States.
- 70% of Russia's arms exports go to Asian countries, where the main buyers are India, China and Vietnam. Middle East market and North Africa is important, but there is a lot of competition there. The markets of Latin America and Africa are of moderate importance for Russia.
- Internal procurement supports military-industrial complex Russia, but the peak of 2011 has passed, and now the industry is unlikely to receive as much attention, which may also affect its ability to export.
- It is also still unclear what role Western sanctions against Russia played, whether Russia was able to carry out real import substitution of Western military technologies and high-tech products, or whether Russia will begin to lose due to sanctions technological level and, accordingly, export orders.
- There are also a number of more general internal factors, which may affect exports: these are the aging material and production base of the Russian military-industrial complex, the aging layer of highly qualified specialists capable of advanced R&D (research and development work), and weak connections between the highest educational institutions and military-industrial companies of Russia.
An analysis of the prospects for Russian arms exports by foreigners is interesting, but, be that as it may, Russia will strive to actively develop this area. Based on the results of the operation in Syria, the emphasis will be on air defense systems, aviation and high-tech equipment of the army and navy.
The Asia-Pacific market will continue to be a priority for Russia, given the arms race fueled by fears among China's neighbors that China will dictate terms to them. Also, Donald Trump's foreign policy in the Middle East is forcing some countries in the region to diversify their arms suppliers, not relying only on the United States.
Most likely, localization of production of Russian equipment in other countries (India, Egypt) will develop.
Sanctions against the military-industrial complex by the United States and Western countries and pressure on potential buyers of Russian weapons, the growth of exports of Chinese products (ground equipment, drones) will be the main limiting factors in the development of Russian arms exports.
Ilya Plekhanov
TRENDS
In 2015, the share of arms exports in total volume Russian exports reached a historical maximum. In absolute numbers, the dynamics are not so favorable, but the volume of contracts already concluded suggests that Russia will remain among the leaders in the global arms market for a long time.
The tank on the Armata platform was developed taking into account the export potential of Russian armored vehicles (Photo: Ilya Pitalev / RIA Novosti)
From statements by Russian officials it follows that in 2015 Russia sold weapons and military equipment worth over $15 billion. Thus, the share of foreign sales of military products reached a record value of 4.4% of total exports. The Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (ACT Center) gives a similar estimate - 4.22%. Five years earlier, in 2011, the share of military exports barely exceeded 2.5%. However, this achievement was achieved not so much due to the growth of the segment, which increased by no more than 10% compared to 2011, but rather due to the fall in civilian exports, which decreased by a third during this time, and mostly just last year, due to falling oil prices. Therefore, to understand the real state of affairs with the export of Russian weapons, its absolute volumes and the country’s share in the world market are much more important. However, it is not so easy to objectively assess these indicators.
Statistical deviations
For obvious reasons world trade weapons is not the most transparent sphere of the economy; complete and reliable data on it in the public field is rare. Experts make assessments based on direct (statements by authorities, company reports, contract data) and indirect (assumptions about the volume of illegal supplies) data. The share of illegal supplies increases when the number of armed conflicts increases, and now is such a time.
It is not surprising that published data differ, sometimes significantly. For example, according to estimates by the American Congress, published by The New York Times, US revenues from arms sales in 2014 amounted to $36.2 billion, and Russia - $10.2 billion. The assessment of the Center for Analysis of the Global Arms Trade (TSAMTO) was different - $31.541 billion from the USA and $13.092 billion from Russia. OJSC Rosoboronexport, which controls more than 85% of Russian military exports, indicated in its annual report for 2014 the volume of external supplies of military products (MP) in the amount of $13.189 billion. And according to the AST Center, Russia in 2014 supplied weapons and military equipment worth $15 billion, including $13 billion through Rosoboronexport.
Rosoboronexport has not yet published a report for 2015; The AST Center estimated Russian arms exports over the past year at $14.5 billion (a decrease of 4% year-on-year), TsAMTO - at $13.944 billion (an increase of 6.5%), and taking into account the “unaccounted volume” - more than $15 billion, that is, approximately the same amount that appeared in the statements of officials.
When analyzing the arms market, assessment methods vary quite a lot. TsAMTO estimates the value of exports at current prices for the current year and averages the data over a four-year period. The AST Center calculates in current prices and, for comparison, in prices five years ago.
The Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) is not at all interested in current prices, which, in the opinion of this organization, distort the real picture. Its calculations are carried out in 1990 prices, and exports count not only real sales, but also production licenses and even gratuitous transfers of weapons. For example, Russian exports in 2014 included estimates from the “military traders of Novorossiya.”
As a result of all this controversy, there is a strong discrepancy in the assessment of the shares and rankings of exporting countries. The only thing that all experts agree on is the definition of leaders: the United States is in first place, Russia is in second, and the rest follow with a wide margin. But the leaders’ shares are distributed differently. According to TsAMTO estimates (at current prices), the United States in 2015 controlled 44.77% of the global volume of defense exports, and over the last four-year period - 41% of the world market. Russia accounted for 15% of global supplies, and in general over the last four-year period - 18.3% of the world market. According to SIPRI (in 1990 prices), the United States accounted for 36.62% of the arms market in 2015 and 32.83% over the last five years, while Russia accounted for 19.15 and 25.36%, respectively.
First things first - airplanes
The dominant share in the structure of Russian arms and military equipment exports is military aviation- more than 56% in 2015 and almost 44% over the five-year period (according to SIPRI estimates). The Russian Federation's report submitted to the UN Register of Conventional Arms indicates the supply of 28 aircraft - apparently, 14 Yak-130 units sold to Bangladesh, six MiG-29 for India and four Su-30 each delivered to Kazakhstan and Vietnam, and also 62 combat helicopters, most of which were in India (24 units) and Peru (16 units), presumably these are Mi-17s of various modifications.
In second place in sales over the five years are naval equipment (14%), followed by missiles (13%), as well as armored vehicles and air defense systems (10% each). At the same time, against the background of the growing share of aviation equipment, other types of weapons are losing their positions.
According to SIPRI estimates, in 2011-2015, Russia accounted for every fourth military aircraft exported in the world and every second air defense system. And also every fifth armored vehicle, every fourth warship, every fourth missile and every fourth engine. In fact, this is not so - SIPRI’s assessments are not entirely quantitative and not entirely monetary, since they calculate the equipment supplied for export in certain general conditional prices of 1990. So it’s difficult to judge the actual supply volumes based on SIPRI data, but the existing database allows us to see the dynamics. And she says that, despite the price advantage, Russia over the past two years has been reducing not only the total volume of arms exports, but also its share of the market both overall and in its main types.
For almost all main types of military equipment that have weight in the export structure, Russia’s share in 2015 was below the five-year average. For comparison, the US shares in all major types, with the exception of naval ones, showed positive dynamics.
Foundation for the future
Exporting countries have so far managed to retain regular consumers of military products and not overlap too much, since in order to change suppliers, it is sometimes necessary to completely re-equip combat units, and this is quite expensive.
The majority of Russian arms exports over the five years fell to Asian countries (68%), followed by Africa (11%), the Middle East (8.2%), Europe (mainly countries former USSR- 6.4%). Over the five-year period 2011-2015, 39% of exports went to India, China and Vietnam (11% each), and Algeria received 7.28% of Russian military supplies. In 2015, the ratio shifted towards China and Vietnam: their shares increased to 15%, while supplies to India decreased to 35%. Also, the share of Algeria decreased to 5%, but the shares of Iraq and Kazakhstan increased to 7.5%. All this does not take into account Syria, data for which is not available in all sources. If we talk about less large markets sales, in lately Deliveries to Pakistan, Belarus and Bangladesh increased, and Nepal, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Peru, Rwanda, Thailand and Zambia appeared among buyers. At the same time, supplies to the UAE, Sudan, Uganda and Malaysia stopped.
Despite the emerging decline in volumes, Russian defense exports have prospects for maintaining and even expanding market share. Firstly, in 2015 there was a significant increase in the number of new contracts signed. The most important of them is the agreement for the supply of 48 Mi-17V-5 helicopters to India for $1.1 billion, half of which can be shipped this year. Also last year, we agreed to sell 46 Ka-52 helicopters (amount unknown) to Egypt and 24 Su-35 fighter jets for $2.5 billion to China over three years (data from the AST Center). In addition, supplies will continue under previously concluded contracts. In particular, these will be Mi-28NE helicopters for Algeria, frigates and diesel-electric submarines for Vietnam.
Support to domestic producers The rearmament program should also provide military and military equipment Russian army; With the funds allocated for it, manufacturers will be able to maintain the competitiveness of their products in the foreign market. Therefore, given the significant gap between the market leaders and the group of countries fighting for third place, at least Russia is not yet in danger of losing second place in the arms market.
In August, the main event related to the arms market was the military-technical forum “Army-2018”, at which new products from the domestic defense-industrial complex were demonstrated. At the same time, there was very little information on arms exports in the public domain. The main one concerns Algeria's interest in acquiring a squadron of MiG-29M/M2 fighters. Also in August, it became known that the first BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles purchased in Russia had appeared in Iraq and that Rosoboronexport was introducing two new products to the international arms market: the Tor-E2 air defense system and the Sprut-SDM1 self-propelled anti-tank gun.
Algeria plans to acquire a squadron of MiG-29M/M2 fighters
As journalists from the publication “Algeria” learned, Algeria, which is one of the largest buyers of Russian-made military aircraft, is showing interest in purchasing 14 MiG-29M/M2 fighters. As part of the Algerian Air Force, new fighters can replace used Soviet MiG-29S from Belarus and Ukraine. This contract will not only allow MiG Corporation to receive several hundred million dollars in profit, but will also ensure production capacity for several years to come. At the same time, the last Russian attempt to enter the Algerian market with the MiG-29SMT fighter was made in 2006, but then the customer, having received the first 15 aircraft, returned them back due to the presence of substandard parts.
Two sources in the military-technical cooperation sphere told Kommersant journalists that representatives of Algeria and Russia are holding closed negotiations on the acquisition of a squadron of MiG-29M/M2 aircraft, and the publication’s interlocutor in the leadership of the Russian military department clarified that the countries are discussing the purchase of 14 new fighters . The cost of a potential contract (taking into account the airborne weapons included in the kit) could be up to 700-800 million dollars. At Rosoboronexport (conducting negotiations on the Russian side), Federal service VTS and the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) refrained from commenting on this matter. At the same time, the Algerian military delegation visited the international military-technical forum “Army-2018” in Kubinka near Moscow at the end of August, where the head of the supply department of the Algerian Ministry of Defense, Major General Mustapha Debbie, and the Deputy Minister of Defense Russian Federation Colonel General Alexander Fomin discussed issues, including those related to the supply of Russian.
It is worth noting that today Algeria is one of the largest buyers of Russian-made weapons, including Russian aircraft. Only in the last 10 years, the fleet of the Algerian Air Force has been replenished with heavy two-seat multirole fighters Su-30MKA (44 aircraft were received under a contract from 2006, 14 under an agreement from 2015), heavy transport helicopters Mi-26T2 (14 units), jet trainers Yak-130 combat aircraft (16 aircraft). In addition, the Algerian army began to receive Mi-28NE attack helicopters (42 helicopters were contracted in 2013). According to Konstantin Makienko, an expert at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, the intensification of Algerian purchases is related to the “NATO intervention in Libya.” If before 2011 Algeria was still looking closely at the products of Western countries, then after these events the country realized that there were simply no more reliable partners than Russia and China in such sensitive issues as arms exports, Makienko noted.
Currently, the Algerian Air Force is armed with several dozen MiG-29S and MiG-29UB fighters. Soviet made, which were supplied from Belarus and Ukraine. In 2006, Algeria was going to update its fleet of these aircraft by contracting from Russia 28 new single-seat MiG-29SMT fighters and 6 double-seat MiG-29UB fighters. But then the deal fell through. Having received the first 15 fighters, the customer accused Russia of using used parts on the aircraft and insisted on the return of the machines. Subsequently, 28 MiG-29SMT fighters from that order entered service with the Russian Air Force, and in 2014, the Russian military received another 16 such aircraft.
The expected Algerian order for 14 MiG-29M/M2 fighters, together with the ongoing deliveries of 46 such aircraft to Egypt, will allow RSK MiG to load its production capacity for several years to come, reports Kommersant’s source in the aviation industry. Against the background of the Russian military’s plans to purchase MiG-35 fighters (6 aircraft will be delivered in 2018-2023), the Algerian order will be a good help for the corporation.
The first batch of BMP-3 was delivered to Iraq
Appeared online and social networks photographs indicate that the first batch of Russian BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles has finally reached Iraq. Earlier in February 2018, it was already reported that the Iraqi ground forces began to receive the first BMP-3s, but this information turned out to be erroneous and was not confirmed.
The contract for the purchase of BMP-3 by Iraq was signed back in 2014, the blog reports, but its implementation was delayed due to various kinds of problems. According to some reports, Iraq purchased about 500 infantry fighting vehicles of this type from Russia. In addition to the BMP-3, the Iraqi military acquired the main combat T-90S/SK from Russia. It is known that Iraq has ordered at least 73 of these tanks; we are talking only about the first batch of deliveries. In June 2018, Russian media, in particular “ Russian newspaper", wrote that the Iraqi military met in Russia and with one of the latest modifications BMP-3M. The reason was a photograph showing a representative of the Iraqi armed forces on one of the infantry fighting vehicles produced in Kurgan.
Tekhmash plans to develop tank shells jointly with India
The Russian concern Tekhmash, part of the Rostec state corporation, held negotiations with the Indian side at the Army-2018 forum on the joint development of a promising 125-mm round with an armor-piercing sabot projectile, intended for T-72 and T-90 tanks . Vladimir Lepin, General Director of the Tekhmash concern, said that at the forum it is planned to discuss the issue of jointly creating such ammunition that would have improved characteristics relative to the Mango shot, the official website reports.
Let us recall that back in March 2014, the Indian Ministry of Defense and Rosoboronexport entered into a contract to organize the licensed production of 125-mm rounds with the Mango armor-piercing sub-caliber projectile for the D-81 tank gun (GRAU index 2A26) in India. This ammunition was developed by specialists from the Research Machine-Building Institute named after V.V. Bakhirev (NIMI) of the Tekhmash concern.
At the beginning of 2017, Russian specialists from NIMI carried out installation and commissioning of the supplied equipment, assisted the Indian side in launching own production on the basis of existing artillery factories of the Indian Ministry of Defense. The set of measures to organize the production of tank ammunition also included training personnel in the production of Mango rounds in India, certification of employees and a comprehensive audit of the readiness and equipment of production. Rostec reports that the first batches of shots that were produced at Indian factories have already passed control tests with positive results. Now the Indian manufacturer supplies the army with Mango tank rounds under its own brand.
Rosoboronexport introduces the Sprut-SDM1 light amphibious tank and the Tor-E2 air defense system to the international market
JSC Rosoboronexport, part of the Rostec State Corporation, is introducing the Sprut-SDM1 light amphibious tank (self-propelled anti-tank gun) produced by the Tractor Plants concern to the international arms market. According to Rosoboronexport General Director Alexander Mikheev, this is a unique domestic development that has no analogues. "Sprut-SDM1" is the only light amphibious combat vehicle that has the firepower of a main battle tank. "Octopus" can be parachuted from a ship and used at any time of the day, including on terrain that is impassable for other similar military equipment. Rosoboronexport believes that this development will be in demand on the market, primarily from countries with complex geographical conditions, combining the presence mountainous area, numerous water barriers and swamps. In particular, the countries of Southeast Asia are showing great interest in this combat vehicle.
"Sprut-SDM1" is intended for fire support of units, including airborne units, combating enemy armored vehicles, including tanks, destroying defensive structures and strong points, conducting military reconnaissance and organizing combat security. According to Rostec, the vehicle can be offered to foreign customers to equip marine units and tank units of the ground forces. The Sprut's armament corresponds to that of the main battle tank - it is a full-fledged 125-mm tank gun, coaxial with a 7.62-mm machine gun and a 7.62-mm remote-controlled machine gun mount. Like the Russian main battle tanks, the Sprut-SDM1 is equipped with a controlled missile weapons, which is designed to destroy armored targets, including those equipped with dynamic protection, at a distance of up to 5 kilometers.
A unique feature is that the combat vehicle is amphibious, while possessing a fairly high level of protection (for its class). Light weight and the ability to easily overcome various water obstacles while afloat provide the Sprut with a high level of maneuverability. Moreover, it can fire from a gun while afloat, and it can also be used in combat in hot tropical climates and high mountains.
In addition to Sprut, Rosoboronexport is beginning to advance to international market weapons of the newest Russian air defense system "Tor-E2". This vehicle is designed to cover units and formations in all types of combat, as well as columns on the march and to protect military and important infrastructure facilities from attacks by manned and unmanned enemy air attacks. Given anti-aircraft missile system capable of hitting airplanes, helicopters, cruise, anti-radar and other types of guided missiles. In addition, it can effectively combat attack elements of modern precision weapons, such as glide and guided bombs, as well as drones within the affected area. The complex is able to operate in any weather conditions, around the clock, as well as in conditions of active fire and electronic countermeasures from the enemy.
Unlike most foreign analogues The Russian Tor-E2 air defense system is an autonomous mobile combat unit with high maneuverability. The complex is able to detect air targets and fire at them not only while stationary, but also while moving. The battery of the four-channel Tor-E2 air defense system, consisting of four combat vehicles, is capable of simultaneously hitting 16 air targets flying from any direction at an altitude of up to 12 km and a range of up to 15 km. The ammunition load of one combat vehicle of the complex has been doubled and amounts to 16 missiles.
According to the General Director of Rosoboronexport, Alexander Mikheev, the Tor-E2 air defense system is one of the long-awaited new products in the segment of short-range air defense systems. It is for this reason that many foreign customers from different regions are showing interest in this complex. According to him, the new version of the complex has retained its best qualities, at the same time becoming an even more formidable weapon, and in terms of survivability and mobility the complex today simply has no equal. For example, in order to disable the battery of the Tor air defense system, it is necessary to destroy all combat vehicles. At the same time, in most analogues, it is enough to destroy the battery radar or command post. Also, Tor-E2 combat vehicles are able to operate in “link” mode, exchanging information about the air situation and coordinating joint combat work. In this mode, one of the combat vehicles, acting from an ambush, can receive the necessary information from the second vehicle, remaining undetected by the enemy until the missile is launched, Mikheev noted. The export potential of the complex is significantly increased by the fact that the Tor-E2 air defense system can be integrated into any existing system Customer's air defense, including those developed according to NATO standards.
10. Netherlands
The Netherlands closes the top ten with a market share of 2%.
The main buyers of weapons from the Netherlands are countries such as Egypt, India, and Pakistan.
It is worth noting that in recent years the Netherlands has been losing its position in the arms market. If in 2008 the country was among the top 5 largest arms exporters in the world, now it has dropped to 10th place.
9. Ukraine
Market share: 2.6%
The main recipients of Ukrainian weapons are countries such as Nigeria, Thailand, Croatia, China and Algeria.
Among the weapons are T-72 battle tanks, armored personnel carriers BTR-4EN, BTR-3E1 and others.
As a result, Ukraine became ninth largest supplier weapons in the world.
8. Italy
Market share: 2.7%
Italy is one of the world and European leaders in arms exports.
7. Spain
Market share: 3.5%
The main recipients of Spanish weapons also became the countries of the Middle East - Oman, Bahrain, the UAE, as well as Australia.
6. UK
Market share: 4.5%
Great Britain took sixth place in the ranking, becoming one of the largest arms exporters to Europe. The main direction of British arms exports has become the Middle East - a region in which military operations are constantly taking place and, accordingly, there is a constant need for arms supplies.
5. Germany
Market share: 4.7%
Germany dropped to fifth place with a market share of 4.7%.
For the period from 2011 to 2015. Germany's arms exports have halved.
In Europe as a whole, imports fell by 41% between 2006 and 2010 and between 2011 and 2015.
4. France
Market share: 5.6%
France, having moved into fourth place, reduced arms supplies by 9.8%.
During 2015, France signed several major arms contracts, including the first two contracts for the supply of the Rafale military aircraft.
3. China
Market share: 5.9%
Chinese arms exports grew by 88% and took third place in the market.
“China continues to expand its military capabilities through both arms imports and domestic production,” said Simon Wezeman, senior researcher at the SIPRI Arms and Military Expenditure Programme.
At the same time, China also entered the top 5 leaders among arms importing countries. The country ranks third in this ranking, behind only India and Saudi Arabia.
2. Russia
Market share: 25%
Russia took second place among arms exporting countries.
Compared to 2006-2010 supplies of Russian military equipment increased by 28%.
However, SIPRI points out that in 2014 and 2015. exports were significantly lower than in 2011-2013 and were at the levels of the previous five-year period.
In 2011-2015 Moscow supplied weapons to 50 countries, as well as to insurgents in Ukraine, notes the Stockholm Peace Research Institute.
The largest buyer of Russian weapons was India with 39% of the volume of weapons sold by Russia, second and third places are shared by China and Vietnam - 11% each, Vedomosti notes.
1. USA
Market share: 33%
The United States, with a 33% share of the arms market, remains the main arms exporter based on the results of 2011-2015, having increased its share during this period by 27%.
“As tensions rise and regional conflicts escalate, the US maintains its leading position as an arms exporter, far outpacing its competitors,” says Aude Fleurant, director of the Military Expenditure Program at SIPRI (Arms and Military Expenditure Programme).
“Over the past five years, the United States has sold or transferred weapons to at least 96 countries, and the US defense industry has numerous export orders, including the delivery of 611 F-35 military aircraft to nine countries,” he notes.
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