How to find the value of the planned task. Methods for developing plan targets

Relative value planned target (plan target indicator) is the ratio of the planned level of the indicator to its level achieved in the previous period (or in the period considered as the base one).

The relative value of the plan target characterizes the prospects for the development of the phenomenon
VPZ = planned level for the future (next) period / actual level of the current (previous) period

Example: in 2007 the number of personnel was 120 people. in 2008 it was planned to reduce production and increase the number of employees to 100 people.
Solution:
OVPP = (100/120) *100% = 83.3% - 100% = -16.7%.
The company planned to reduce the number of personnel by 16.7%.

Relative level of plan implementation

Relative level of plan implementation(plan implementation indicator) characterizes the degree of implementation of the plan.
OVVP = actual level of the current period / plan for the current period

Example: in 2007 the number of personnel was 120 people. in 2008 it was planned to reduce production and increase the number of employees to 100 people. But the number of employees increased over the year to 130 people.
Solution:
OVVP = (130 / 100)*100% = 130% - 100% = 30%.
The actual number of employees exceeded the planned level by 30%.

There is a relationship between the relative value of the plan target and the relative value of the plan implementation expressed in the formula: OVVP = OVD / OVPZ

Example: the company planned to reduce costs by 6%. The actual decrease compared to last year was 4%. How was the cost reduction plan implemented?
Solution:
ATS = (96 / 100) * 100% = 96% - 100% = - 4%
GPZ = (94 / 100)*100% = 94% - 100% = - 6%
OVVP = 96% / 94% = 102.1% - 100% = -2.1% the cost reduction plan was not fulfilled because the actual level exceeded the planned one by 2.1%.

Example: insurance company in 1997, it entered into contracts worth 500 thousand rubles. In 1998, she intends to conclude contracts in the amount of 510 thousand rubles. The relative value of the planned target will be equal to 102% (510 / 500).

Suppose the influence various factors led to the fact that the insurance company actually concluded insurance contracts in 1998 for the amount of 400 thousand rubles. In this case, the relative value of the payment will be equal to 78.4% (400/510).

The relative values ​​of dynamics, plan target and plan completion are related by the following relationship:

In our example: 1.02*0.784=0.8

Development of plan targets is the process of justifying approved indicators based on calculations and logical analysis of factors that have a significant impact on their value.

This process is creative in nature, since formalized procedures constitute only a certain part, and final decisions are made on the basis of an expert analysis of the results of calculations and a combination of various factors that can only be determined qualitative assessment. Strictly speaking, in accordance with the previously given classification, this kind of solutions belongs to the category of semi-creative ones. Moreover, there is a tendency to improve that part of the planning decision-making process that lends itself to formalized calculations.

One of the main formalized methods for justifying plan targets is direct calculation. This method involves a scrupulous calculation of each quantifiable factor in accordance with the scheme of their relationship (technological, cost estimates, etc.). At first glance, it seems that this method gives the most reliable results. However, this impression is deceptive, since direct calculations (such as costing) provide reliable data only regarding accomplished events. As for planned calculations for the future, then the uncertainty inherent in future events significantly depreciates the value of direct calculations.

An alternative to direct calculations is the normative method, which allows you to predict future values key indicators planning based on significantly simpler calculations than when using direct accounting. This method is based on multiplying the standard indicator (always relative) by the value determined by the basic reference indicator. The standard indicator is determined based on an analysis of the current situation and adjustments for the future using expert assessments. The basic indicator is determined on the basis of statistical data or a forecast of their expected value for the planning period.

The balance sheet method occupies a special place in the system of formalized planned calculations. Its meaning is to compare the results of two calculations performed using different methods and for different purposes. The first is the calculation of the need for any resource (material or financial) necessary to complete the planned task. The second is the calculation of the possibility of providing required type resource to complete the same task. This calculation is made on the basis of an analysis of planned tasks for the production of relevant products or for the formation of the revenue side of the budget. Next, a comparison of needs and opportunities is carried out (as an option - a comparison of the expenditure and revenue parts of the budget).

If capacity equals or exceeds demand, then the plan is considered balanced. In this case, the excess of capabilities compared to needs is called a surplus. In those cases when needs exceed capabilities, the plan is considered deficient.

If the deficit (the difference between need and opportunity) is comparable to errors caused by inaccurate prediction of future events (usually no more than 3-4%), then such a plan can be considered balanced. A plan with a significantly larger deficit is obviously impossible to implement. If such a plan is approved, then as it is implemented, adjustments are inevitable depending on the actual situation. Such a plan cannot be considered scientifically sound. Therefore, its adoption usually has the character of a kind of compromise in the hope that life itself will tell you what will need to be cut and what will have to be abandoned as the plan is implemented, since a priori it is not always possible to predict this with sufficient accuracy.

The most complex method of formalizing planning calculations is the use of economic and mathematical models to optimize planning decisions. This method has many various options depending on the use of different mathematical models. They are united by the fact that during the calculations a large number of options are calculated and the best one is determined from the perspective of a given criterion. Moreover, the volume of calculations is such that they can only be performed using electronic computers. The effectiveness of such calculations directly depends on the compliance mathematical model assigned tasks.

A formalized planning method also includes “network planning”. In this case, planned calculations are combined with decision-making on operational management. All the work and events that must take place to achieve ultimate goal, are depicted as a network graph in accordance with their natural sequence. The duration in time and the amount of funding for each activity are usually estimated using the previously described method of expert assessment. As a result, using a network graph, a “critical path” is identified that requires increased attention in terms of operational regulation and ensuring the established deadline for completing the entire volume of planned work.

Relative dynamics are also called “growth rates,” denoted as “Tr” or indices. The period in which a phenomenon is taken as a basis for comparison in statistics is usually called “basic” and denoted as “x0”. The period in which the compared phenomenon occurs is called “reporting”, “current” and is designated as “x1”. The relative magnitude of the dynamics is calculated using the following formula:

The level of the phenomenon being compared can also be called the “actual level”, that is, the level actually achieved in the reporting period; it is designated “xf”. Then, the relative magnitude of the dynamics will take the following form:

Relative value of the planned target. In statistics, the values ​​of the characteristics of the phenomenon under study, which must be achieved in the upcoming period, are called planned values.

The relative value of the planned target (OVp.z.) is calculated as the correlation of the planned level of the phenomenon (xpl) with the level of the same phenomenon, which is taken as the basis for comparison (x0). The basis for comparison is the actually achieved value of the characteristic of the phenomenon under study in the period that precedes the planned one, and not necessarily the immediate predecessor; any previous period can be taken as the basis for comparison. Thus, the relative value of the plan target has the form:

That is, this relative value determines, in percentage terms, how many times the planned level of the phenomenon differs from the level of the phenomenon achieved in the previous period.

Relative amount of plan implementation. The concept of “plan implementation” implies a comparison of the planned task and the actual result obtained. Consequently, the relative value of plan implementation (OVv.p.) is the correlation of the actually achieved level of the phenomenon in the period under study (xf, x1) with the planned level of this phenomenon (xpl): That is, this relative value shows how many times the actual level of the phenomenon under study in the reporting period differs from the planned level of the phenomenon for this period.

The relationship between the relative values ​​of the dynamics, the plan target, and the implementation of the plan. If there is a planned level in the construction of relative values ​​that reflect changes in a phenomenon over time, three levels are analyzed: basic, planned and actual. Consistent calculation of the change first in the planned value relative to the base value, then in the actual value relative to the planned one, makes it possible to judge the change in the phenomenon over the period under study as a whole, i.e. change in the actual level relative to the base one or characterizes the relative magnitude of the dynamics.

The product of the relative values ​​of the planned task and the implementation of the plan is equal to the relative value of the dynamics. Really:

This expression displays the relationship between the relative values ​​of the plan target, plan execution and dynamics.

Relative indicators characterizing the structure of an object. In statistics, structure is understood as information about dividing the population under study into separate groups, about the size of each of the groups and their significance for the population as a whole. Therefore, the relative value of structure (d) in statistics is a correlation between a part of a phenomenon (f) and the phenomenon as a whole (the sum of all parts, f):

That is, the relative size of the structure shows what proportion (or what percentage) is part of the population in total volume totality. A synonym for the concept of “relative magnitude of structure” is also the concept of “ specific gravity", "share".

It is necessary to note a feature of the data for which the relative value of the structure can be calculated: the data must be grouped, that is, undergo primary processing after observation.

Calculation of changes in the relative magnitude of a structure over time. For a full analysis, it is not enough to study only the structure of the phenomenon; it is necessary to compare the distribution of the phenomenon among groups in the period under study with the distribution that existed in previous periods. Constructing relative values ​​of the structure of a phenomenon for several periods allows us to identify changes in the structure of the phenomenon that occur over time. Such changes in statistics are called “structural shifts”. The calculation of structural changes in a phenomenon over time () is determined by the ratio of the change in part of the phenomenon over time () with the change in time of the phenomenon as a whole ():

Relative magnitude of coordination. The relative magnitude of coordination characterizes the relationship between the parts of the whole. That is, in addition to determining the specific gravity of various parts in comparison with the entire aggregate, relative values ​​are also used, reflecting the comparison of various parts with each other.

The relative value of coordination (RCV) has a form based on its essence - a comparison of one part of the population under study (fx) with another part of the same population (fу):

The value shows how many units of the part being compared are per 1, 10, 100 or 1000 units of the part taken as the basis for comparison. For example, how many women are there per 1000 men.

Relative magnitude comparison. The relative value of comparison reflects the correlation of indicators that have the same content, units of measurement, period or point in time, but calculated for different objects. That is, this relative value is allocated to separate species, because it allows you to compare different objects according to the characteristics being studied. The form of the relative value of comparison (RCV) is determined by its content: the correlation of a certain characteristic of object A (XA) with the same characteristic of object B for the same period (XV):

As an example of calculating relative comparison values, the following indicators can be cited:

1) the ratio of oil production volumes for 1999 in the USA with oil production volumes for 1999 in the Russian Federation,

2) comparison of the average annual gross domestic product per capita in Germany for the period from 1995 to 2000 with the average annual gross domestic product per capita in Russian Federation for the same period; etc.

2.4.1. Known data on the production of garments

Table 2.4

Planned task for the production of garments
and its implementation

2.4.2. During the reporting period, the district canning enterprise produced

Table 2.5

Determine the total volume of production in conventional natural units.

Note. A conventional jar is taken to be a jar with a product weight of 400.0 and a volume (V) of 353.4 cm 3 .

2.4.3. Fuel consumption at heating plants in the reporting period is characterized by the following data

Table 2.6

Average caloric equivalents (coefficients) of conversion into standard fuel: Luchegorsky coal - 0.85 tons, Shakhtinsky coal - 0.8 tons, fuel oil - 1.35 tons.

Determine: 1) total consumption of standard fuel according to plan and actual;

2) percentage of plan completion for total fuel consumption;

3) the share of actually consumed fuel by type.

2.4.4. The following data (conditional) are available on the sale of fish products, thousand rubles.

Table 2.7

Define:

1) the structure of sales of fish products by quarter and per year;

2) sales dynamics for each type and for all products, along with a constant and variable comparison base. Draw conclusions.

2.4.5. Trade turnover joint stock company“Vladkhleb” for 2000 amounted to 20,260 million rubles. The trade turnover was planned for 2001 in the amount of 27,730 million rubles. Determine the relative value of the company’s target for turnover for 2001.

2.4.6. By construction company The plan for 2001 provides for an increase in labor productivity of construction workers by 3%. In fact, during the reporting period it increased by 5% compared to 2000. Determine the relative amount of implementation of the plan for increasing the productivity of the company's workers.

2.4.7. The plan of JSC Vladkhleb for 2001 compared to 2001 provided for a reduction in production costs by 3%. In fact, it was reduced by 2%.

Calculate the relative amount of implementation of the plan to reduce the cost of production of the company in 2001.

2.4.8. By industrial enterprise Monthly data available:

Table 2.8

2.4.9. The following data is known for the city of Nakhodka:

Table 2.9

Number of cars owned personally

End of table. 2.9

Determine the growth rate using the chain method, the share of each type of car by year, the coefficient of coordination between trucks and buses.

2.4.10. By travel agency There are data on revenue for the reporting period:

Determine the percentage of fulfillment of the revenue plan as a whole for the travel company.

2.4.11. Food consumption based on a survey of households in Nakhodka per capita per year is presented in Table. 2.10.

Table 2.10

Determine the dynamics of food consumption using the basic and chain method, the structure of food consumption by year. compare the indicators and draw conclusions.

The concept of relative magnitude for statistical and economic science very important. Or rather, not even the concept itself, but the process of calculating the relative value. How many times is one phenomenon greater or less than another, by what percentage did the increase occur, how the target indicator changed or how the plan was fulfilled; relative values ​​help to find out all this. We have already discussed the general essence of relative quantities. This part of the topic will introduce the concept of a specific relative quantity and examples of its calculation.

In the first of three blocks, we will analyze the relative value of the planned target.
Relative value of the planned target (hereinafter we will call it OVPP for short) - allows it to determine the planned task of the organization for the next year in comparison with what we have already done in the past period.
Simply put, the relative value of the planned target shows how the production plan will change next year compared to actually achieved results this year.
In different textbooks this relative value has a little different name. Sometimes she is called Relative target indicator . But this does not change the essence of the quantity.
The basis for calculating the GPZ is the levels of the phenomenon being studied. In this situation it is:
Upl – planned level for the current period;
Ufact - actually achieved level last year.

Calculation of the relative value of the planned target

1. Form for calculating the growth rate – shows how many times the planned indicator exceeds the actual indicator of the previous year.

2. Growth rate calculation form – shows what percentage of the planned target for the next year will be in comparison with the actual value of the past year.

3. Form for calculating the growth rate – shows by what percentage they would like to increase output compared to the previous year; if the indicator turns out to be negative, then by how many percent they would like to reduce the target target.

Three forms of calculating indicators are necessary, since on the basis of them it is much easier to draw a conclusion about what should happen to the plan in the current year compared to the achieved indicators of the past year.

Example . Product output in value terms in 2014 amounted to 143 million rubles. In 2015, it is planned to increase the cost of production to 150 million rubles. determine the relative value of the planned target, the percentage of the planned target and by what percentage it is planned to increase the cost of production.

Given Solution
Uf.p.g. – 143 million rubles. 1. OVPP = Upl2015 / Uf.p.g.2014 - 150 / 143 - 1.049

For pl - 150 million rubles. 2. %PV = OVPP x 100% = 1.049 x 100% = 104.9%

Define 3.Δ%PZ = OVPP x 100% - 100% = 1.049 x 100 - 100 = +4.9%

OVPP, %PZ, Δ%PZ Answer: OVPP=1.049, %PV=104.9%, Δ%PV=+4.9%

Thus, it has a GPZ of 1.049, or it is planned to increase the cost of issue by 1.049 times.
The percentage of the planned target (%PZ) for 2015 will be 104.9% or it is planned to increase the cost of production (Δ%PZ) by 4.9% in 2015 compared to 2014.

The relative value of the plan target in combination with two other relative values ​​forms an interconnected unity. You can read more about the essence of the relationship in the article about. What is the relative magnitude of plan implementation?
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