Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of April 9, 2016 No. 291 “On approval of the Rules for establishing by subjects Russian Federation area standards shopping facilities and methods for calculating the standards for the minimum provision of the population with the area of retail facilities, as well as on the invalidation of the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of September 24, 2010 No. 754”
In accordance with paragraph 2 of part 1 of article 5 Federal Law"About the basics government regulation trading activities in the Russian Federation" The Government of the Russian Federation decides:
1. Approve the attached:
the standard for the minimum provision of the population with the area of shopping facilities of local importance - according to;
standards for the minimum provision of the population with the area of non-stationary retail facilities - in accordance with.
Appendix No. 1
to calculating standards
minimum provision for the population
area of retail facilities
Calculation
standards for the minimum provision of population with the area of stationary retail facilities
1. Minimum population standard municipality the area of stationary retail facilities () is calculated using the formula:
Standard for the minimum provision of the population of a municipality with the area of stationary retail facilities where sales are carried out food products(sq. m per 1000 people);
Standard for the minimum provision of the population of a municipality with the area of stationary retail facilities where non-food products are sold (sq. m per 1000 people).
2. The standard for the minimum provision of the population of a municipality with the area of stationary retail facilities where food products are sold (), is calculated using the formula:
The basic indicator of the minimum provision of the population with the area of stationary retail facilities where food products are sold, taken equal to 202 sq. m per 1000 people;
Regional correction coefficient for the minimum provision of the population with the area of stationary retail facilities where food products are sold.
3. The standard for the minimum provision of the population of a municipality with the area of stationary retail facilities where non-food products are sold (), is calculated using the formula:
The basic indicator of the minimum provision of the population with the area of stationary retail facilities where non-food products are sold, taken equal to 387 sq. m per 1000 people;
Regional correction coefficient for the minimum provision of the population with the area of stationary retail facilities where non-food products are sold.
4. The regional correction coefficient for the minimum provision of the population with the area of stationary retail facilities where food products are sold () is calculated using the formula:
t - the year preceding the year in which the standard for the minimum provision of the population with the area of stationary retail facilities is recalculated;
Expenditures of the population on the purchase of goods in the constituent entity of the Russian Federation in year t (rubles) (according to the balance sheets of monetary income and expenditure of the population published by statistical bodies);
Expenditures of the population on the purchase of goods in a constituent entity of the Russian Federation in 2015 (rubles) (according to the balance sheets of monetary income and expenditure of the population published by statistical bodies);
Growth rate index consumer prices for goods in a constituent entity of the Russian Federation for the period from 2015 to year t (according to statistical authorities);
The volume of all food products sold to the population within the boundaries of the municipality (per capita) in year t (rubles);
The volume of all food products sold to the population in the Russian Federation (per capita) in year t (rubles);
Fixed set cost consumer goods and services in the Russian Federation in December of the year t (rubles) (according to statistical authorities);
The cost of a fixed set of consumer goods and services for the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, which includes a municipal entity, in December of the year t (rubles) (according to statistical authorities);
Share of retail markets and fairs in turnover retail subject of the Russian Federation, which includes a municipal entity, in year t (according to statistical authorities);
Share of retail markets and fairs in the retail trade turnover of the Russian Federation in year t (according to statistical authorities).
5. The regional correction coefficient for the minimum provision of the population with the area of stationary retail facilities where non-food products are sold () is calculated using the formula:
The volume of all non-food products sold to the population within the boundaries of the municipality (per capita) in year t (rubles);
The volume of all non-food products sold to the population in the Russian Federation (per capita) in year t (rubles).
6. The volume of all food products sold to the population within the boundaries of the municipality (per capita) in year t () is calculated using the formula:
,
The volume of all food products sold to the population within the boundaries of the municipality (in in monetary terms) for the financial year t (rubles) (according to statistical authorities);
Population of the municipality in year t (persons) (according to statistical authorities).
7. The volume of all food products sold to the population in the Russian Federation (per capita) in year t () is calculated using the formula:
,
The volume of all food products sold to the population in the Russian Federation (in monetary terms) for the financial year t (rubles) (according to statistical authorities);
Population of the Russian Federation in year t (persons) (according to statistical authorities).
8. The volume of all non-food products sold to the population within the boundaries of the municipality (per capita) in year t () is calculated using the formula:
Specific gravity food products including drinks, and tobacco products in the structure of retail trade turnover in a constituent entity of the Russian Federation in year t (according to statistical authorities);
The share of non-food products in the structure of retail trade turnover in the constituent entity of the Russian Federation in year t (according to statistical authorities).
9. The volume of all non-food products sold to the population in the Russian Federation (per capita) in year t () is calculated using the formula:
The share of food products, including drinks, and tobacco products in the structure of retail trade turnover in the Russian Federation in year t (according to statistical authorities);
The share of non-food products in the structure of retail trade turnover in the Russian Federation in year t (according to statistical authorities).
10. The standard for the minimum provision of the population of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation with the area of stationary retail facilities () is calculated using the formula:
Standard for the minimum provision of the population of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation with the area of stationary retail facilities where food products are sold (sq. m per 1000 people);
Standard for the minimum provision of the population of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation with the area of stationary retail facilities where non-food products are sold (sq. m per 1000 people).
11. The standard for the minimum provision of the population of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation with the area of stationary retail facilities where food products are sold () is calculated using the formula:
,
where is the average annual resident population of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation in year t (persons) (according to statistical authorities).
12. The standard for the minimum provision of the population of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation with the area of stationary retail facilities where non-food products are sold (), is calculated using the formula:
.
Appendix No. 2
to calculating standards
minimum provision for the population
area of retail facilities
Calculation
standard for the minimum provision of the population with the area of local shopping facilities
1. The standard for the minimum provision of the population of a municipality with the area of local shopping facilities () is calculated using the formula:
Area of land plots classified as residential and public-business zones located on the territory of urban settlements of the municipality (sq. km);
The radius of the trade service zone for urban settlements, taken equal to 0.25 km;
The minimum number of retail facilities of local importance located within the trade service area for urban settlements of the municipality (units);
Area of land plots classified as residential and public-business zones located on the territory of rural settlements of the municipality (sq. km);
The radius of the trade service zone for rural settlements, taken equal to 0.5 km;
The minimum number of retail facilities of local importance located within the trade service area for rural settlements of the municipality (units).
2. The minimum number of retail facilities of local importance located within the trade service area for urban (rural) settlements of the municipality ( () is:
when the density of the population living in the territory of residential and public and business buildings in urban (rural) settlements of the municipality is up to 5,000 people per square meter. km - 2 shopping facilities of local importance;
when the density of the population living in the territory of residential and public and business buildings in urban (rural) settlements of the municipality is from 5,000 to 10,000 people per square meter. km - 4 shopping facilities of local importance;
when the density of the population living in the territory of residential and public and business buildings in urban (rural) settlements of the municipality is from 10,000 to 15,000 people per square meter. km - 6 shopping facilities of local importance;
when the density of the population living in the territory of residential and public and business buildings in urban (rural) settlements of the municipality is over 15,000 people per square meter. km - 8 shopping facilities of local importance.
3. The density of the population living in the territory of residential and public and business buildings of urban settlements of the municipality (), is calculated by the formula:
where is the average annual number of permanent population living in urban settlements of the municipality (people).
4. The density of the population living in the territory of residential and public and business buildings of rural settlements of the municipality (), is calculated by the formula:
where is the average annual number of permanent population living in rural settlements of the municipality (people).
5. In this document:
a) under shopping facilities of local importance means shops and trade pavilions selling food products and mixed assortment goods with a retail area of up to 300 square meters. m inclusive, except for shops and trade pavilions located in large shopping centers (complexes);
b) large shopping centers (complexes) mean shopping centers (complexes) with retail space:
more than 5000 sq. m - in municipalities with a population of more than 500,000 people and in intra-city municipalities of federal cities;
more than 3000 sq. m - in municipalities with a population of 100,000 to 500,000 people;
more than 1500 sq. m - in municipalities with a population of up to 100,000 people.
Appendix No. 3
to calculating standards
minimum provision for the population
area of retail facilities
Calculation
standards for the minimum provision of population with the area of non-stationary retail facilities
1. Minimum provision standard for the population of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation (municipal entity) shopping pavilions and kiosks selling food and agricultural products () is calculated using the formula:
,
The basic indicator of the minimum provision of the population with trade pavilions and kiosks selling food products and agricultural products (the number of retail facilities per 10,000 people), taken equal to 9;
The standard for the minimum provision of the population of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation with the area of stationary retail facilities (calculated according to the standard provided by Appendix No. 1 to the methodology for calculating the standards for the minimum provision of the population with the area of retail facilities);
The actual provision of the population of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation with the area of stationary retail facilities;
Regional correction coefficient established by authorities state power subject of the Russian Federation, taking into account the fact that (for cities of federal significance).
2. Standard for the minimum provision of the population of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation (municipal entity) with trade pavilions and kiosks selling products Catering() is calculated using the formula:
,
where is the basic indicator of the minimum provision of the population with trade pavilions and kiosks selling public catering products (the number of retail facilities per 1000 people), taken equal to 1.
3. The standard for the minimum provision of the population of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation (municipal entity) with trade pavilions and kiosks for the sale of printed materials () is calculated using the formula:
,
where is the basic indicator of the minimum provision of the population with trade pavilions and kiosks selling printed materials (the number of retail facilities per 1000 people), which is taken equal to 1.7.
4. Standards for the minimum provision of the population with non-stationary retail facilities are not established for the regions of the Far North and equivalent areas.
Document overview
The Rules for establishing by regions the standards for the minimum provision of the population with the area of retail facilities and the methodology for calculating such standards have been re-approved.
According to the new rules, standards are established in relation to stationary retail facilities, local retail facilities, and non-stationary retail facilities (previously the standard was uniform).
For stationary and non-stationary objects they are determined in relation to each region and its constituent municipal districts and urban districts, with the exception of cities of federal significance, for which standards are established in general.
For objects of local significance, standards are determined in relation to each urban district, settlement, as well as in relation to the intra-city municipal formation included in the city of federal significance.
The previous rules and methodology were declared invalid.
Rationale for calculating standards for the provision of population with area of retail facilities
When developing a methodology for calculating the standards for providing the population with retail space, the current regulatory legal framework in Russia and abroad was studied, an analysis of the trade infrastructure of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation was carried out, and the influence of economic, demographic and social factors on the population's need for retail space.
Foreign experience in planning the development of retail trade is based on certain standards. In France, the design of new residential buildings involves the construction of 2 square meters. m of shop space per apartment. In the UK, the standards determine required amount stores per 1000 inhabitants and population per store. In the USA, regulations determine the amount trading enterprises per 1000 inhabitants or the required length of street frontage allocated for shops, calculated in linear meters per conditional population.
In Hungary, turnover per square meter is taken as the calculation indicator. m of retail space, which is extrapolated for a period of 3-5 years. In the Czech Republic, the calculation is based on determining the volume of retail turnover through long-term forecasting of the need for retail space and the number of sales employees. In Poland, when planning a retail network, a productivity indicator is used, expressed in the amount of turnover realized per 1 square. m of retail space. In Romania, a similar methodology for planning the need for retail space is used. Additionally, to check the need, a control calculation is made - they determine the standard retail space per 1000 residents for the future for a given city by dividing the entire retail space by the population of the city in the future.
In the Republic of Ukraine the standards are expressed minimum size retail space per 1000 population. It is 423 sq. m for all types of retail trade enterprises, including 169 sq. m for everyday goods and 254 sq. m - for non-food products. In Belarus, standards for providing the population with retail space of 260 square meters have been approved. m per 1000 inhabitants in regional centers, in rural areas - 220 sq. m.
The all-Union security standard previously in force in the USSR retail space per 1000 inhabitants was 230 sq. m (90 sq. m for food and 140 sq. m for non-food products). However, this figure is significantly lower than the average European and North American level (650 sq. m) and the US level (1200 sq. m).
One of the last documents adopted in the USSR - Building codes and rules (SNiP) 2.07.01-89 “Urban planning. Planning and development of urban and rural settlements”, approved by Decree of the USSR State Construction Committee dated January 1, 2001 No. 78. It provides for the norms for the retail space of stores in urban settlements - 280 square meters. m per 1000 people (including food - 100 sq. m, non-food - 180 sq. m), in rural settlements- 300 sq. m (including food – 100 sq. m, non-food – 200 sq. m)
The USSR standards developed during the period of centralized economic management cannot meet the changed socio-economic living conditions of the population. modern Russia. USSR standards were established based on the economic capabilities of the country at a particular stage, and not on the real need to provide the population with a retail trading network.
In order to develop a methodology for calculating standards for the provision of population with the area of retail facilities, the Russian State University of Trade and Economics conducted a study in the cities of Kemerovo, Ivanovo, Orenburg, Chelyabinsk, Samara, South Sakhalinsk. Data settlements were selected in order to analyze the standards for the maximum permissible time that buyers agree to spend on making purchases of various categories of goods, to identify regional specifics and the degree of satisfaction of residents of these cities with the provision of retail space.
The total sample size was four thousand people; citizens with different levels income in the age range from 18 to 70 years.
The sociological survey questionnaire made it possible to identify the financial situation of the respondents; average purchase frequency; acceptable amount of time that the respondent agrees to spend on purchasing goods; identifying the level of aspirations during the purchase process; purchasing activity of the population in the process of purchasing durable goods, as well as preference for places of their sale.
As part of the study, the average frequency of purchases of the proposed categories of food products was determined. When purchasing food products, pedestrian accessibility of the store is important for the population - over 12% of respondents prefer to buy without spending a long time searching, choosing and queuing in the store. For example, the choice of bread and bakery products respondents are willing to spend up to 5 minutes, and 15 minutes or longer on choosing meat and meat products.
After studying economic, socio-demographic, organizational, administrative and other factors, quantitative and qualitative assessment needs of the population for retail space, and an empirical formula was derived for calculating the standard for providing the population with the space of retail facilities, which depends on the average number of visits to places of sale of a certain product group per day, the standard of the sales area required to serve one customer, as well as the maximum allowable time that the buyer agree to spend on purchasing a certain product:
|
standard for the provision of retail space (sq. m per 1000 people); |
||
|
average number of visits to points of sale of the i-product group per day (times); |
||
|
the norm of the sales floor area required to serve one customer (for comfortable customer service, the area required for the free movement of the trolley is taken into account trading floor and installations commercial equipment– 16 sq. m); |
||
|
the maximum allowable time that the buyer agrees to spend on purchasing goods of i-group (hour); |
||
|
number of product groups under consideration (i=1,2,….N). |
In the course of calculating the basic indicators, an analysis of 23 product groups was carried out. Calculations of the general standard Ro and composite standards Roprod And Ronon-food are shown in Table 1.
Table 1. Calculation of the general standard for the provision of area of retail facilities for the Russian Federation and its component values for food and non-food products
|
Name of product groups |
The maximum allowable time that the buyer agrees to spend on purchasing the goods i-groups (h) |
Average number of visits to points of sale i-product group per day (times) |
Standard requirements for retail space for i-product group (sq. m per 1000 people) |
|
Bread and bakery products | |||
|
Groceries | |||
|
Confectionery | |||
|
Meat and meat products | |||
|
Fish and fish products | |||
|
Milk and dairy products | |||
|
Gastronomic goods | |||
|
Wine and vodka products, soft drinks, beer and ice cream | |||
|
Vegetables and fruits | |||
|
Other food products | |||
|
Total for food products: |
795,47 |
||
|
Household goods and household chemicals | |||
|
Haberdashery and perfumery | |||
|
Appliances | |||
|
Computer equipment, televisions and radio products | |||
|
Stationery and toys | |||
|
Printed products | |||
| 0,001 | |||
|
Other non-food products | |||
|
Total by non-food products: |
542,51 |
||
|
Total: |
The data for calculating the minimum standards for the need for retail space are adjusted to the maximum possible purchase complexity coefficient, which is the average number of items purchased during one store visit.
In food trade, the maximum possible value of the coefficient is taken to be 5.0, in non-food trade - 1.5. Taking into account these amendments, comfortable standards for the provision of population with the area of retail facilities, averaged for the Russian Federation, have the following values:
Roprod= 795.47/5 = 159 sq. m per 1000 people;
Ronon-food=542.51/1.5 = 362 sq. m per 1000 people.
General standard:
Ro= Roprod+ Ronon-food= 521 sq. m per 1000 people.
Experts from the MAGAZIN MAGAZINOV company assessed the situation in all market segments shopping centers Moscow, and also outlined key trends and forecasts in the market retail real estate.
New offer in a shopping center in Moscow
In the second half of 2016, one of the largest commissions of retail space in the last ten years is expected - 466,000 sq. m. m. If in the first half of the year only one shopping center was opened in Moscow - “Riviera” (100,000 sq. m), then in the second half 12 new shopping centers are expected to be commissioned. In terms of the volume of commissioned retail space, this is comparable only to 2014, when 415,000 sq. m. were commissioned. m. of retail space. The dynamics of the opening of new shopping centers in Moscow reflects the cyclical nature of the retail real estate market: the last 2 cycles - from 2008 to 2012, and from 2013 to 2016.
Observations show that the maximum volume of new supply occurs during years of economic instability. During periods of economic growth, many new projects are launched, but due to the long investment phase, the opening of new shopping centers often occurs during periods of economic downturn. Now you can observe the described situation.
In 2017-2018, 3 times less retail space will be brought to market than in 2015-2016. The volume of new supply will be comparable to the level of 2010-2011.
It is worth noting that if over the past two years the new offer was formed mainly due to several large objects (Aviapark and Vegas Crocus City in 2014, Columbus in 2015), then in 2016 it is planned to open many smaller format shopping centers . There will be almost the same number of them as were introduced over the past 2 years. At the same time, the GLA of the largest of them will be 80,000 sq. m. m, which is approximately 3 times less than the area of the Aviapark.
It is expected that the supply of new shopping centers will exceed demand at the beginning of 2017. The market will be put under pressure by a significant amount of vacant space.
By the end of 2016, vacancy may reach its highest level in the last 7 years.
Now there is the lowest vacancy rate (6.5%) over the past 2.5 years. However, this phenomenon is temporary: according to forecasts, in the future, vacancy may increase by 3.5% and reach the level of 2015 (10%).
The reason is that in 2016 a record number of retail spaces will be introduced. For comparison, the average vacancy rate for Moscow shopping centers introduced in 2015 was 19% in the first half of 2015.
Based on the results of the first half of the year, Moscow ranks fourth in terms of the provision of retail space per capita (437 sq.m./thousand inhabitants).
However, if all the declared facilities are commissioned on time, the balance of power will change by the end of the year. Krasnodar will remain in first place, Samara will move into second place due to the commissioning of the Good’Ok shopping center with a GLA of 115,000 sq. m. m (536 sq.m/thousand inhabitants). This will be followed by Ekaterinburg (499 sq.m./thousand inhabitants) and Moscow (475 sq.m./thousand inhabitants), which will retain its 4th place in the ranking.
Compared to the end of 2015, most of the tenants have resumed their development. If at the beginning of the year many chains did not have clear plans for development and retailers continued to optimize, then closer to the middle of the year many players began selecting objects and negotiating. This is due to the positive dynamics of shopping center attendance and signs of stabilization of the macroeconomic situation.
Tenants have been taking a wait-and-see approach for a long time, primarily considering offers in existing shopping centers. However, due to the reduction in supply in existing shopping centers and the corresponding increase in landlords’ expectations, all large quantity networks are ready to consider facilities under construction. Shopping centers under construction are also becoming attractive because their landlords are ready to offer more comfortable conditions, for example, CAP for the first year of the lease. also in Lately A payment scheme in which the rate for the second year of lease is fixed based on the average turnover for the first is becoming increasingly common.
Shopping center supply in Moscow districts
The most a large number of facilities will be introduced in those Moscow districts that already make up a fairly high share of the city’s total supply. Four more shopping centers will be opened in the Southern Administrative District, whose share, taking into account commissioning, will be 19% of the total supply.
2 shopping centers will open in the Northern Administrative District (14%) and 4 shopping centers in the Closed Administrative District (10%). These three districts will account for about 70% of the total supply in Moscow.
At the same time, VAO will remain the lowest supply of retail space in the district: not a single retail facility will open there until the end of the year.
Distribution of Moscow districts in the share of supply of retail space
| District name | Availability of retail space (sq.m/thousand inhabitants) |
The district's share of the total supply of shopping centers in Moscow in 2016 |
|
|
2015 |
2016 |
||
| Southern Administrative District | 557 | 647 | 19% |
| SAO | 655 | 727 | 14% |
| NEAD | 500 | 497 | 12% |
| Company | 359 | 454 | 10% |
| SEAD | 420 | 415 | 10% |
| SZAO | 488 | 564 | 9% |
| Central Administrative District | 684 | 677 | 9% |
| South-Western Administrative District | 296 | 294 | 7% |
| TiNAO | 624 | 754 | 4% |
| VAO | 110 | 136 | 4% |
| ZelAO | 516 | 504 | 2% |
Commercial conditions for renting retail space in Moscow shopping centers
In most objects, rates were not indexed, so they remained at the 2015 level. It is worth noting that in a number of shopping centers there was a rotation of tenants, as a result of which landlords sought to find more solvent retailers and replace brands with unique or more popular ones.
Analyzing average level rental rates, it is worth noting that until 2014, rent was calculated, as a rule, on the basis of a fixed rate, and since 2015 - as a percentage of turnover.
Rental rates* in rubles in shopping centers opened before 2014
| Tenant profile/type | Average area (sq.m) |
Rental rates for the first half of 2016 (thousand rubles) |
|
|
IBASIC TENANTS |
FMCG hypermarket | > 8000 | 8-12 |
| 4000-8000 | 10-15 | ||
| DIY hypermarket | > 10000 | 8-12 | |
| Supermarket FMCG | 1000-4000 | 19-35 | |
| BT&E | 1200-2200 | 7-11 | |
| Sporting goods | 4000-6000 | 4-5 | |
| 1200-2200 | 6-9 | ||
| Goods for children | 1000-2000 | 9-13 | |
| Cloth | 1500-3000 | 7-12 | |
| Multiplex cinema | 3000-5000 | 7-11 | |
| Tenant shopping gallery | 700-1500 | 10-13 | |
| 500-700 | 12-17 | ||
| 250-500 | 15-30 | ||
| 100-250 | 30-50 | ||
| 50-100 | 55-80 | ||
| < 50 | 100-150 | ||
| Restaurant | 300-600 | 18-25 | |
| coffee house | 80-170 | 40-60 | |
| Food court | 50-100 | 60-100 | |
* The table shows the ranges of average rental rates for premises in shopping centers modern level in Moscow (put into operation before 2014), per sq. m per year, excluding VAT and operating payments, as of the end of June 2016
Commercial conditions for shopping centers commissioned since 2015
| Tenant profile/type | Average square (sq.m) |
Average CAP range* in the fourth quarter 2015 |
Average CAP range* in the first half of the year 2016 |
|
| ANCHOR TENANTS | FMCG hypermarket | > 8000 | 1,8-4% | 1,8-4% |
| Hypermarket FMCG (city format) | 4000-8000 | 1,8-4% | 1,8-4% | |
| DIY hypermarket | > 10000 | 2-4% | 2-4% | |
| Supermarket FMCG | 1000-4000 | 5-8% | 5-8% | |
| BT&E | 1200-2200 | 3-5% | 4-6% | |
| Sporting goods | 4000-6000 | 8-10% | 4-8% | |
| 1200-2200 | 7-10% | 7-10% | ||
| Goods for children | 1000-2000 | 8-13% | 8-13% | |
| Cloth | 1500-3000 | 8-13% | 8-13% | |
| Multiplex cinema | 3000-5000 | 8-13% | 8-13% | |
| Tenant of a shopping gallery | 700-1500 | 9-14% | 9-14% | |
| 500-700 | 10-15% | 10-15% | ||
| 250-500 | 12-15% | 12-15% | ||
| 100-250 | 10-20% | 10-20% | ||
| 50-100 | 15-25% | 15-25% | ||
| Restaurant | < 50 | 10-15% | 10-15% | |
| coffee house | 300-600 | 18-25% | 18-25% | |
| Food court | 80-170 | 10-18% | 10-18% | |
* CAP - the maximum share of rental payments in the total turnover of the tenant, including operating costs, excluding utility bills.
The change in the economic situation inevitably led to a decrease in the business margins of large network players in the sporting goods market. In this regard, one can observe a decrease in ATS in this segment from 8-10% to 4-8%.
As for retailers in the “ Appliances and electronics”, then the format is 4000-6000 sq. m, where CAP was traditionally lower, almost completely left the market. Instead, only the 1200-2200 sq.m. format remained. m, where CAP is 4-6%.
According to Alexandra Romashina, leading consultant at MAGAZIN STORES, retailers are increasingly opening stores in shopping centers under conditions that oblige developers to bear the costs of finishing the premises, or offer conditions associated with opening brands as a franchise.
Anchor tenants such as cinemas and entertainment centers, significantly increased the requirements for the condition of the transferred premises and their finishing, which also led to an increase in construction costs for developers. Shopping center owners often have to meet retailers halfway in order to maintain the concept of the facility, increase the occupancy rate of the shopping center and ensure acceptable traffic.
Some retailers in the fashion segment are seeking to rent larger premises.
This group of tenants often manages to negotiate attractive commercial terms with the owners, such as a percentage of turnover without a fixed rate, finishing work carried out by the landlords, etc. Thus, such international brands as H&M, brands of the Inditex group, as well as a number of federal brands - Befree, Familia - have already increased their format.
Over the past year, a number of stores have opened that have changed the vector of development towards large shopping centers. Thus, quite a lot of new stores have appeared in the Aviapark shopping center and Columbus shopping center, such as Factory Kalyaev, Porta 9, Claustraphobia, Ogogo Obstanovochka, etc. In addition, there is an influx individual entrepreneurs to large shopping centers, which were previously inaccessible to them due to high rates and high requirements on the part of the lessor.
Forecast for the commissioning of shopping centers by the end of 2016
12 facilities with a total GLA of 466,000 sq. m. are announced for opening by the end of 2016. m.
Shopping centers planned to open in the Moscow region by the end of 2016
|
name of the property |
Address |
GBA (sq.m) |
GLA (sq.m) |
Developer |
|
Moscow |
||||
| Oceania (Kutuzovsky Gallery) | Kutuzovsky Prospekt, 57 | 137 000 | 60 000 | TPS Real Estate |
| Butovo Mall | Voskresenskoye village, village Yazovo | 143 000 | 54 400 | MD Group |
| Fine! | Khoroshevskoye sh., 33/1 | 114 000 | 50 000 | TPS Real Estate |
| Kosino Park | Svyatoozerskaya st., 5 | 79 510 | 39 000 | GK TEN |
| Metropolis (II stage) |
Leningradskoe highway, vl. 18 | 65 800 | 38 000 | Capital Partners |
| Multifunctional complex on Kievskaya | Kyiv st., 2 | 30 000 | 20 000 | PATERO Development |
| Ashan Proletarsky | Proletarsky Prospekt, 30, building 15 | 23 667 | 15 500 | Immochan |
| Selectics | Varshavskoe highway, vl. 148 | 42 500 | 7 000 | GC Elvicom |
|
Moscow region |
||||
| Riga Mall | Novorizhskoe highway, 5 km from MKAD | 142 000 | 80 000 | Riga Mall |
| Mozhaisk yard | Novoivanovskoe village, Western street, building 100 | 65 000 | 45 500 | PATERO Development |
| Vidnoe Park | M-4 "Don", 3 km from MKAD | 105 000 | 45 000 | Trinity Russian Retail |
| Solntsevo Park | Borovskoe highway | 17 000 | 11 600 | GK Morton |
Thus, the following trends can be identified in the Moscow shopping center market:
- Large-scale commissioning of facilities is expected before the end of the year. About 70% of the new supply falls on the leading districts in terms of supply of retail space.
- After vacancy fell to 6.5% in the first half of the year, it is expected to rise to 10% by the beginning of 2017.
- Rental rates and CAP have remained unchanged over the past six months, with the exception of the sporting goods and home appliances segments.
- By the end of the year, Moscow will retain its current 4th place in the provision of retail space among Russian cities. Krasnodar will take first place, Samara will take second place, and Yekaterinburg will take third place.
- The Eastern District of Moscow is still the most unsaturated part of the city with retail facilities and has great potential for the implementation of development projects.
- According to forecasts, the new supply of shopping centers will put pressure on the market and will not allow rental rates to rise. In some segments, it will create more profitable terms rent.
The review was prepared by specialists from the company MAGAZIN MAGAZINOV
November 10, 2016Malls.Ru publishes material dedicated to the most shopping-centered cities in Russia.
Over the past five years Russian market high-quality shopping centers were replenished by more than 7 million square meters of space. More than a third of new construction in the last three years has been provided by the Moscow market. At the same time, the bulk of new supply in 2017-2018 will be generated by growing regional markets.
Many major projects shopping centers will be located on regional markets until the end of 2016, and record growth rates are predicted over the next years, especially in cities with a population of 300 thousand or more, which were not yet sufficiently saturated with quality objects during the first wave of development of regional centers by developers.
Today Moscow ranks fourth in terms of the provision of high-quality retail space with an indicator of about 450 thousand sq.m per 1000 residents. This is the 10th indicator in Europe, although in terms of total supply the Russian capital has long surpassed all European megacities - London by 2.5 times, Berlin by 5 times, Barcelona by 7 times. Today, 11 Russian cities are in the top 20 most populated European cities with shopping centers (with a population of 1 million or more inhabitants).
At the same time, security in cities with a population of over a million is today estimated at an average of 366 sq.m per thousand inhabitants, and in cities with a population of less than a thousand people - at 261 sq.m per thousand inhabitants.
Where do retail real estate developers direct their main investments and which Russian cities remain the most in demand in recent years? Malls.Ru has identified the top 10 main directions.
Top 10 most popular cities for shopping center developers
The largest shopping center in southern Russia is often not included in Russian and European rankings as a city with a population of less than 1 million inhabitants. At the same time, Krasnodar has for more than 6 years held the title of the city with the most abundant shopping centers, with an indicator of more than 950 sq.m per thousand inhabitants - this is significantly higher than in Warsaw, the leader among European million-population cities. The selection of shopping centers in Krasnodar also remains one of the best in Russia - SBS Megamall, OZ Mall, Red Square, Gallery Krasnodar. Retail share Krasnodar region of the total turnover in the Southern Federal District is estimated at 46%. According to expert forecasts, Krasnodar will remain a leader in the level of saturation of retail space for at least another 5-7 years.
Samara
Over the past few years, thanks to new discoveries, Samara has become one of the three most developed largest Russian cities (from 1 million inhabitants). And after the opening of the new shopping center Good "Ok (GLA = 115,000 sq.m.), which will become the largest in the Volga region, Samara will secure its status as the most abundant city with a million population in Russia with 560 sq.m. per 1000 inhabitants. Most of The entire supply of high-quality retail real estate in the city is under the control of the largest developer in the region. The portfolio of Victor & Co includes the Moskovsky, Cosmoport, Megacity shopping centers and the new Good Ok.Ekaterinburg
The capital of the Urals and the fourth largest city in Russia, Ekaterinburg was particularly active in the development of shopping centers in 2009 and 2012. But in the last few years, the dynamics of development have slowed down, and the market itself has reached the stage of primary saturation. As a result, Ekaterinburg again lost the first place to Samara as the city with the most shopping centers. Neighborhood-type shopping centers have recently become popular among local developers. Analysts note good prospects for discounter shopping centers. In the first half of the year, the Academichesky shopping center opened in Yekaterinburg (GLA - 30,000 sq.m), two more openings are planned before the end of the year, and the fifth phase of the Greenwich shopping center will be launched at the beginning of 2017.Nizhny Novgorod
Thanks to the active opening of new shopping centers in 2015, Nizhny Novgorod rose to the top three of the most well-endowed millionaires with retail space. The overall increase in supply for 2015-2016 in the city was 26.2%. To date, analysts have identified 29 quality properties with a total area of 1.19 million sq.m GBA and 785 thousand sq.m GLA. The largest objects are “Mega”, “Sky”, “Fantastika”, “Rio”. Nizhny Novgorod developers are developing retail complexes in the lifestyle and edutainment formats, relying on tenants of non-standard formats, which are poorly represented in the city.
Included in the top 20 largest cities in Russia, Saratov maintains the status of the second most saturated city with retail space with a population of less than 1 million inhabitants, although three years ago there was a shortage of quality shopping centers in the city. In the fall of 2015, the opening of the Tau Gallery shopping center with an area of 102,000 sq.m GBA took place. Another large shopping complex, Happy Mall, is preparing for the commissioning of the fourth phase and is designing the fifth, which will launch in 2018. The largest shopping centers in Saratov also include the shopping center “My New” and “Triumph Mall”.
Rostov-on-Don
The largest in the south of Russia and the ninth largest population in the country, Rostov-on-Don has become one of the points of attraction federal networks and construction of large shopping centers at the first stage of development of retail real estate in the regions - in 2004-2009. Today, more than 140 international brands operate in the city, and the total supply of quality retail space exceeds 400 thousand sq.m. The largest shopping centers in Rostov-on-Don are “Horizon”, “Mega”, “Golden Babylon”, “Rio” and “Megamag”, which is preparing to open its second phase. In recent years, against the background of market saturation, the interest of developers has begun to shift towards the region.Saint Petersburg
In 2016, a large shopping center was opened in St. Petersburg for the first time in the last two years (Okhta Mall - 78,000 sq.m). Today, the city has 58 high-quality shopping centers with a total area of 2.25 million sq.m (capacity - 430 sq.m. per 1,000 residents). The market situation is stabilizing after several consecutive difficult quarters for shopping centers. Many retail chains view St. Petersburg as promising direction for development in 2017. However, there are no plans to open new shopping centers next year. “Zero” commissioning of new shopping centers in the city will be noted for the first time since 2003, since the birth of the quality market in St. Petersburg shopping complexes.Moscow
2016 will be the best year in the last 10 years in terms of the number of new retail spaces commissioned in the Moscow region. Analysts expect a total addition of 638,000 sq.m of GLA. Since the beginning of the year, Oceania, Kosino Park, Horosho!, Riga Mall, Solntsevo Park and the 2nd stage of Metropolis have already opened. Another 6 shopping complexes will receive their first customers by the end of the year. IN total volume Of all newly built shopping centers in Russia, Moscow will account for 37% in 2016! High commissioning rates will continue until the end of 2018. Today, Moscow leads in terms of the total volume of retail space in Europe with an indicator of 5.5 million sq.m. Analysts note an improvement in consumer demand in Moscow. In the first half of 2016, shopping center attendance increased by 10%. New international brands are entering the market - since the beginning of the year, 26 new brands have been noted in Russia, 23 of which have chosen Moscow for their debut.
Voronezh
Being largest city In the Black Earth Region, with a population of about 1 million inhabitants, Voronezh has long been one of the most attractive cities for the construction of large shopping centers. The bulk of construction in the city occurred in 2009-2010, when several regional shopping centers were opened at once - City Park Grad (GLA - 141,000 sq.m), Chizhova Gallery (47,000 sq.m), Maksimir (62,000 sq.m.), "Arena" (47,100 sq.m.). Today, regional properties account for 39% of the total supply of high-quality retail real estate in the city. As of 2016, 18 modern shopping centers with a total area of about 820,000 sq.m GBA and 525,000 sq.m GLA were opened in Voronezh. New projects include the 3rd stage of the Chizhov Gallery and the Maisky shopping center. Besides, in Voronezh region Construction of the Mega shopping center is expected.Tyumen
The unofficial capital of the oil and gas region, Tyumen is traditionally one of the most popular shopping center cities with a population of more than 500 thousand residents. According to data for 2016, the total volume of supply is 365,000 sq.m., but by 2018 it is expected to grow to 480,000 sq.m. In particular, in December 2016, one of the largest shopping and entertainment centers in the city, Tyumen City Mall, will open (GLA - 53,000 sq.m). By the way, regional and super-regional facilities in Tyumen account for 55% of all shopping centers. The largest mall in the region is the Crystal shopping center. At the same time, experts note that the market has almost reached saturation. The volume of commissioning of new shopping centers in 2017 will be the minimum over the past five years.When preparing the material, data from the following companies was used: Knight Frank, JLL, Magazin Magazin, ekbpromo, IDEM, Cushman & Wakefield.
24.08.2017Company expertsRRG calculated the future supply of retail space in Moscow for 2019. Also, during the analysis, the most promising territories for the development of shopping centers were identified, and the volume of areas that can be effectively built in each of the megaclusters was calculated.
Main conclusions of the study:
The provision of retail space in the Central Megacluster by 2019 will be about 765 sq. m. m. per 1 thousand people. The retail supply of clusters within the boundaries of the Central Megacluster is the highest: Lubyanka - 1230 sq. m, Arbat – 1117 sq. m, Moscow City – 1101 sq. m, Tverskoy – 825 sq. m, Tagansky – 820 sq. m. But taking into account the specifics of the location, powerful “daytime” traffic, and the demand for retail in the central part of the city, it is possible to increase the supply in the megacluster to 1,500 sq. m. m per thousand inhabitants. The central megacluster should be considered separately from other megaclusters, since it is characterized by a very high concentration of the “daytime” population, most of them office employees and tourist traffic.
In second place after the Central megacluster comes Kutuzovsky with an indicator of 661 sq. m. The level of its provision will increase due to the opening of the Vegas Kuntsevo shopping center of the Crocus Group company. Next in the ranking are the Volokolamsk, Leningrad and Warsaw megaclusters. Relatively low retail saturation will be recorded in such megaclusters as Shosse Entuziastov, Shchelkovsky, Volgogradsky, Dmitrovsky, Leninsky.
If we predict the provision of megaclusters with the largest super-regional format (shopping centers with a GLA of 80 thousand sq. m), then Zelenogradsky will be in the top leaders - 300 sq. m. m per 1 thousand people, Leningradsky - 294 sq. m, Volokolamsky - 208.5 sq. m, Yaroslavsky - 207.5 sq. m, Warsaw megaclusters – 164.5 sq. m.
If we evaluate the future retail supply of clusters (with the exception of those included in the Central Megacluster), then the maximum indicators will be demonstrated by the Yaroslavl, Yuzhny Port, Matushkino-Savelki, Krylatskoye, Davydkovo, Mozhaisky, Kuntsevo, Khodynka, Matveevskoye, and Fili clusters.
RRG specialists adopted the 600 sq. mark as a conditional saturation point for retail real estate for Moscow and nearby cities in the region. meters per 1 thousand people. In a number of clusters, especially in the East and South-East, South-West of the city, the retail supply is below the level of 300 sq. m. m per thousand people. Thus, retail saturation in Novogireevo is 167 sq. m per thousand people, Ivanovskoye cluster – 178 sq. m, Preobrazhensky – 179 sq. m.
The most promising for development are 4 megaclusters: in the Volgogradsky megacluster, about 360 thousand sq. m can be realized. m of retail real estate, in Shchelkovsky - 280 thousand, Leninsky - 255 thousand sq. m. m, Shosse_Entuziastov – 215 thousand sq. m. At the same time, developers have already begun to actively develop the Leninsky megacluster: the Horus group has begun construction of the Salaris shopping center with a rental area of 105 thousand sq. m. m, Crocus Group plans to build the Vegas shopping center on Kievskoe Highway.
Table 3. Prospective supply of retail space to the population of Moscow MEGACLUsters by 2019, sq. m per 1 thousand inhabitants
|
Megacluster |
|||
|
Central |
|||
|
Kutuzovsky |
|||
|
Volokolamsky |
|||
|
Leningradsky |
|||
|
Varshavsky |
|||
|
Zelenogradsky |
|||
|
Kashirsky |
1 million 136 thousand |
||
|
Yaroslavsky |
|||
|
Leninist |
1 million 700 thousand |
||
|
Dmitrovsky |
1 million 156 thousand |
||
|
Volgogradsky |
1 million 409 thousand |
||
|
Shchelkovsky |
|||
|
Highway Enthusiasts |
Source: company dataRRG
Table 4. TOP-20 Prospective provision of retail space for the population of Moscow CLUSTERS by 2019, sq. m per 1 thousand inhabitants
|
Cluster |
Megacluster |
Population by 2019 |
Availability of retail space, sq. m / 1 thousand inhabitants |
|
|
Yaroslavsky |
Yaroslavsky |
|||
|
South Port |
Kashirsky |
|||
|
Matushkino-Savelki |
Zelenogradsky |
|||
|
Krylatskoe |
Kutuzovsky |
|||
|
Davydkovo |
Kutuzovsky |
|||
|
Mozhaisky |
Kutuzovsky |
|||
|
Kutuzovsky |
||||
|
Leningradsky |
||||
|
Matveevskoe |
Kutuzovsky |
|||
|
Kutuzovsky |
||||
|
Volokolamsky |
||||
|
Tushino Yuzhnoye |
Volokolamsky |
|||
|
Academic |
Leninist |
|||
|
Marina Grove |
Dmitrovsky |
|||
|
Troparevo |
Leninist |
|||
|
Northern Chertanovo |
Varshavsky |
|||
|
Sokolniki |
Shchelkovsky |
|||
|
Volokolamsky |
||||
|
Teply Stan |
Leninist |
|||
|
Leningradsky |
Source: company dataRRG
Table 5. Top 20: Moscow Clusters Promising for Retail Real Estate Development
|
Cluster |
Megacluster |
Population by 2019 |
Availability of retail space, sq. m / 1 thousand inhabitants |
|
|
Novogireevo |
Highway Enthusiasts |
|||
|
Ivanovskoe |
Highway Enthusiasts |
|||
|
Preobrazhensky |
Shchelkovsky |
|||
|
Printers |
Volgogradsky |
|||
|
Lyubertsy Fields |
Volgogradsky |
|||
|
Novo-Peredelkino |
Leninist |
|||
|
Izmailovsky |
Shchelkovsky |
|||
|
Zelenogradsky |
||||
|
Golyanovo |
Shchelkovsky |
|||
|
Kuzminki |
Volgogradsky |
|||
|
Volgogradsky |
||||
|
Northern Veshnyaki |
Highway Enthusiasts |
|||
|
Volgogradsky |
||||
|
Western Maryino |
Volgogradsky |
|||
|
Alekseevsky |
Yaroslavsky |
|||
|
Western Biryulyovo |
Varshavsky |
|||
|
Zhulebino |
Volgogradsky |
|||
|
Tsaritsyno |
Kashirsky |
|||
|
Volzhsky |
Volgogradsky |
|||
|
Medvedkovo |
Yaroslavsky |
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