Forecasting the economic state of an enterprise. Diagnostics and forecasting of the financial condition of the enterprise

Conclusion

1.3 Methods for forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise

1.3 Basic methods of forecast analysis of the financial condition of an organization

2 . Financial and economic characteristics of Oliris LLC

2.1 Organizational and economic characteristics

2.2 General assessment of the financial condition of Oliris LLC

Main goals of forecasting

Financial positioning in the enterprise management system

Forecasting methods

Forecasting period, forecast options

Submitting your good work to the knowledge base is easy. Use the form below

Students, graduate students, young scientists who use the knowledge base in their studies and work will be very grateful to you.

Posted on http://www.allbest.ru/

Introduction

Determining the future state of an enterprise and its environment based on existing trends is forecasting. Whether we realize it or not, when making any planned or unplanned decisions. assessment of their possible consequences is a mandatory management action. And it is better that this action is carried out systematically and correctly as much as the available information allows.

Assessing the consequences of decisions and actions for an enterprise, taking into account current trends in changes in the external environment and the state of the enterprise, or forecasting differs from planning these actions and decisions only in that when planning we are guided primarily by the goal that must be realized, that is, based on the goal, we plan the sequence actions and the required resources for their implementation.

When forecasting, the result or the possible degree of achievement of goals is the probable consequences of decisions made or planned. In this sense, forecasting is a necessary component of planning and management. And the success of planning and. Consequently, the management of the enterprise's activities will be completely determined by the quality of forecast estimates of the consequences of decisions made.

Purpose of the work: to conduct a forecast analysis of the financial condition of the organization.

explore theoretical issues of predictive analysis of the financial condition of an organization;

carry out the financial and economic characteristics of Oliris LLC;

conduct a forecast analysis of the financial condition of Oliris LLC.

The object of the study is Oliris LLC.

The subject of the study is a forecast analysis of the financial condition of the organization.

Depending on the nature of the problems being solved, various research methods were used: dialectical, economic-statistical, vertical, horizontal, coefficient, balance, etc.

The information base for the study was the publications of various scientists on this issue, such as V.V. Kovalev, G.V. Savitskaya, M.I. Bakanov, A.D. Sheremet, etc.

1. Theoretical issues of forecast analysis of financial condition

1.1 Goals, objectives and sources of financial analysis

Analysis is called one or another way of understanding objects and phenomena in the environment, which is based on dividing a whole object or subject into a number of parts with the subsequent study of their dependencies and connections 1.

Economic analysis is a structured process of studying phenomena in the economy and assessing their sensitivity to changes in internal and external environmental factors, including managerial interaction 2.

Among all types of analysis, financial analysis occupies a special place, and it is used during the study of the financial mechanism of functioning of all business entities 3.

The purpose of the analysis is timely diagnosis and elimination of shortcomings in the field of financial activities with a further search for methods to improve the financial condition of the enterprise.

The main tasks of financial analysis:

Developing ways to strengthen the current financial position, collecting the necessary information and developing financial statements;

Analysis of the composition, sources of formation of the organization’s property and their structure;

Solvency and liquidity analysis;

Analysis of overall financial stability.

Business entities cannot deal with the problem of independently searching for financial sources, choosing a strategy for individual development, expanding production, and are also faced with business risks of various levels (financial, commercial), which happened against the backdrop of gaining broad economic freedom.

The most significant is internal information, which includes the following:

Absolutely all types of business accounting (financial, operational, production, management and current);

All legal documentation that characterizes contractual official relations with buyers and suppliers, investors and issuers;

Design and other technical documentation, which reflects the range of manufactured elements;

Level of automation of management of all available aspects of the activity of a business entity;

Accounting and static reporting;

The actual level of technology and production technology;

Constituent documentation;

Acts of audits and inspections.

Data from intra-business accounting is collected through various types of analysis carried out by trusted persons within the organization. Regarding external users, the main source of information for them is financial reporting indicators, which can be used by any employee of the organization 4.

In the general situation, the annual financial statements of commercial organizations include:

Appendixes to the balance sheet;

Balance Sheet;

The entire financial transaction report.

Specialists use the following forms of attachments to the accounting report and balance sheet for all financial results:

Financial flow statement form;

Form of statement of changes in capital;

Form of a report on the intended use of the money received.

The presented reporting forms are the information base for analyzing the financial condition.

1.2 Indicators used in predictive analysis

The defining indicators of forecast analysis are the expected change in production and sales volumes, as well as prices for manufactured products and purchased resources.

Forecast analysis indicators:

growth rate of production volume and sales of products;

rate of increase in prices for manufactured products;

rate of increase in prices for raw materials;

growth rate of material intensity of products;

wage growth rate;

the rate of increase in labor intensity of products;

average depreciation rate (the ratio of annual depreciation to the value of non-current assets);

standard of other costs to revenue;

capital investments, thousand rubles;

average rate of contributions to social funds;

average tax rate of accounting profit before tax;

average value added tax rate;

share of retained earnings in net profit;

duration of inventory turnover with VAT on purchased values, days;

average collection period for receivables, days;

average repayment period of accounts payable, days.

The calculation of indicators for the forecast income statement is preceded by auxiliary calculations, which include forecast calculations of revenue, costs by their elements, as well as the value of non-current assets.

When forecasting revenue, the influence of two factors is taken into account - growth in sales volumes and changes in prices for manufactured products.

Material costs are predicted using a formula that assumes the possibility of taking into account changes in material costs in the future relative to the existing level due to an increase in production volume, rising prices for material resources and changes in material intensity.

Projected labor costs are calculated using an algorithm similar to the previous one.

The amount of projected contributions for social needs depends on labor costs.

The amount of depreciation is predicted based on the value of non-current assets (depreciable property assessed at historical cost) at the end of the reporting period and the average depreciation rate.

The initial cost of non-current assets at the end of the first forecast year is calculated taking into account the assumption that their disposal is equal to depreciation, and their input corresponds to the original forecast values
The forecast balance sheet in aggregate form contains four positions in assets: non-current assets (the calculation algorithm is shown above), inventories with VAT, accounts receivable and cash with short-term financial investments (this element is calculated at the final stage after calculating liability items).

Inventories with VAT are calculated based on the turnover specified in the initial data and projected expenses for ordinary activities.

The algorithm for calculating projected accounts receivable is similar to the previous one

Balance sheet liability items in their aggregated form are forecast in the following detail. Capital invested - in the base case remains unchanged at the level of the value at the end of the reporting year; If information is available about possible deposits and withdrawals of participants, appropriate calculations are possible.

Long-term liabilities and short-term loans and borrowings in the considered version of forecast calculations are accepted at the level of the reporting year; if there are forecasts for changes in debt, then the calculation becomes slightly more complicated, that is, the balance of debt is adjusted taking into account the funds raised and repaid.

Accounts payable are forecast taking into account its turnover.

The balance sheet liability total is the sum of the calculated aggregated items.

Cash flow indicators are projected last, since the process of calculating these indicators uses the indicators of the forecast income statement and the forecast balance sheet.

First of all, cash flows for current activities are forecast.

To check the correctness of the forecast calculations made, it is necessary to compare the indicator of accumulated funds (cash flow statement) with the indicator of the cash balance (balance sheet); if the calculations are performed correctly, these two values will be equal.

A continuation of forecast analysis is the calculation of standard indicators of economic analysis based on forecast documents and the formation of a conclusion about changes in the economic situation of the organization in the future.

The results of forecast analysis largely depend on the initial data that is included in the calculation of forecast documents, in particular, such indicators as the growth rate of product sales, the rate of price growth (the ratio of the growth rate of prices for products and purchased raw materials), significantly influence the results of calculations. the amount of capital investment.

There are several methods for predictive analysis of the financial condition of an organization, the main ones are:

method of expert assessments;

deterministic methods;

method of proportional dependencies;

stochastic method;

simple dynamic analysis method;

multivariate regression analysis;

Let us consider in more detail deterministic methods, which are the most common type of analysis in business practice.

Deterministic factor analysis is a technique for studying the influence of factors whose connection with the performance indicator is functional in nature, i.e. when the resultant indicator is presented in the form of a product, quotient or algebraic sum of factors.

The main result of deterministic factor analysis is the decomposition of the increase in an effective indicator, due to the joint influence or change of factor characteristics, into the sum of partial increases in the effective indicator, any of which is due to a change in only one factor.

The fundamental disadvantage of deterministic factor analysis is that when conducting analysis it is impossible to separate the results of the influence of simultaneously acting factors that cannot be combined in one model. Therefore, any factor decomposition is very conditional.

In deterministic factor analysis, the following types of the most common factor models are distinguished.

Additive models:

Y = xi = x1+x2+x3+xn (1)

Y - performance indicator;

Xi is the sum of factor indicators.

Multiplicative models

T- performance indicator;

a, b, c are factor indicators.

Multiple models are used when the effective indicator is obtained by dividing factor indicators.

Mixed (combined) models:

To identify the influence of factors in deterministic factor analysis, the most universal method is to use chain substitutions and arithmetic differences. It is based on the elimination method.

Eliminate means to eliminate, exclude the influence of all factors on the performance indicator, except one. First one changes, and all the others remain unchanged, then two, three, etc. change. This technique makes it possible to determine the influence of each factor on the values of the indicator under study separately.

Using the chain substitution method, it is recommended to adhere to a certain sequence of calculations: first of all, you need to take into account changes in quantitative and then qualitative indicators. The result of decomposition will depend on the sequence in which the replacement occurs. The significance of factor analysis using strictly deterministic models lies in the accuracy of the estimates.

We also use the basic turnover method for forecast analysis, which is based on calculating the turnover of individual elements of assets and liabilities of the balance sheet. Its application is based on the assumption that the calculated level of turnover of a particular element of the balance sheet suits the economist and this level of turnover will remain the same in the forecast period.

The forecast value of reserves is determined by the formula:

where _ the amount of reserves in the forecast period;

Вп - the amount of revenue in the forecast period;

Inventory turnover ratio in the reporting period (basic turnover).

Oliris LLC is a successfully developing company whose main activity is the wholesale and retail trade of work footwear and personal protective equipment in the Southern Federal District.

The organization was created in 2009. The authorized capital of the enterprise was contributed by one founder in the form of cash.

The Oliris enterprise has been providing the consumer market in the Krasnodar Territory for many years, having for this:

Specialized trade equipment;

Warehouse equipment;

Trained personnel;

Retail and warehouse space;

Established supplier markets;

Buyers' markets.

Oliris LLC has two stores located in different areas of the city of Krasnodar.

Today Oliris LLC is a modern, profitable, automated and promisingly developing trading enterprise. Such results were achieved thanks to an proactive, professionally trained management team.

And, of course, this is the merit of the entire team. Since the company is constantly developing, retail and warehouse space and sales volumes are increasing, so the company is increasing the number of personnel.

Oliris LLC offers only high-quality products from well-known, reputable and time-tested manufacturers.

The main buyers of goods are enterprises in the city of Krasnodar, as well as nearby areas.

The organizational structure of the Oliris LLC enterprise is presented in Figure 2.

Posted on http://www.allbest.ru/

Figure 2 - Organizational structure of Oliris LLC

The organizational management structure of Oliris LLC is a linear-functional structure, which is determined by the small size of the enterprise, and has the following advantages: minimal bureaucracy, broad and flexible job responsibilities, well-established means of transmitting information and visibility of employees’ contribution to meeting consumer needs.

Main economic indicators of the activities of Oliris LLC for 2013 - 2015. are presented in table 2.1.

From the data in Table 2.1 it follows that sales revenue from Oliris LLC during the analyzed period increased by 41.5% and amounted to 244,832 thousand rubles in 2015.

Table 2.1 - Main economic indicators of the activities of Oliris LLC for 2013 - 2015.

Indicators	Absolute deviation	Growth rate, %
	2015 from 2013	2015 from 2014	2015 to 2013	2015 to 2014

Total cost of products sold, thousand rubles.
Profit from sales, thousand rubles.
Profit before tax, thousand rubles.
Net profit, thousand rubles.

Average working capital balances, thousand rubles.
Return on sales, %
Production profitability, %
Return on equity, %
Costs per 1 rub. products sold, kopecks
Capital productivity
Working capital turnover ratio, turnover
Turnover period of working capital, days

The total cost of products sold in the period from 2013 to 2015 increased by 62,218 thousand rubles. and in 2015 amounted to 228,004 thousand rubles. The positive point is that the cost is growing at a lower rate than revenue, this led to an increase in sales profit in 2015 compared to 2014 by 34.2% or by 4285 thousand rubles.

Profit before tax in 2013 amounted to 7,088 thousand rubles, and in 2015 it was already 19,959 thousand rubles, which is 81.6% more. Net profit increased during the analyzed period by 3096 thousand rubles. or by 126.3% and amounted to 11,141 thousand rubles in 2015.

The organization is growing as the average annual cost of fixed assets, which in 2013 amounted to 1,464 thousand rubles. which is 7244.5 thousand rubles. less than in 2015, and the average balances of current assets, which during the period from 2013 to 2015 increased by 134.3% or by 27,926 thousand rubles. The volume of the organization's activities is growing, which requires fixed and working capital.

Costs per 1 rub. products decreased in the analyzed period by 0.03 rubles, cost accounts for 90% of revenue, this is a fairly high percentage even for organizing a trade sector.

Return on sales increased by 1.7% compared to 2013 and by 1.4% compared to 2014. Profitability indicators are quite low for a trading company.

Production profitability also increased between 2013 and 2015 by 3% and amounted to 7.4%.

Return on equity has decreased, however, it is very high, 1 rub. equity capital brings the organization 1.5 rubles. net profit.

The capital productivity indicator in 2014 was 58.4, which is 51.9% more than in 2105. A decrease in this indicator indicates a decrease in the efficiency of use of fixed assets.

The working capital turnover ratio also decreased. There is a decrease of 30.6% or 3.3 revolutions, and in 2015 this figure was 5 revolutions. A decrease in the coefficient indicates a decrease in the rate of return of money invested in production. Due to the decrease in the turnover ratio, the turnover period increased by 29.1 days.

Thus, a general analysis of economic indicators indicates that, despite a decrease in some performance indicators of Oliris LLC, the overall financial condition of the organization improved for the period from 2013 to 2015.

For a general assessment of the financial condition of an organization, it is necessary to analyze the dynamics and structure of its property and the sources of its formation.

An analysis of the dynamics and structure of the property of Oliris LLC is presented in Table 2.2.

For the period from 2013 to 2015. the cost of property increased 3.2 times or by 50,829 thousand rubles. The assets of Oliris LLC as of the end of 2015 mainly consist of current assets (81.42%).

The largest share in the structure of assets at the end of 2015 is made up of mobile assets, their growth by 2.8 times is ensured by an increase in accounts receivable (by 2.5 times or by 15,292 thousand rubles) and inventories (by 52.08% or by 2,556 thousand . rub.) This is explained by the specifics of the organization’s activities, which are primarily engaged in wholesale trade, and its main buyers are commercial organizations. Due to the crisis in the economy, some buyers delayed payments for work performed, which is why the organization in 2014 - 2015. accounts receivable increased. It makes up the largest share in the structure of assets (34.21% at the end of 2015).

Among working capital, a significant share is also occupied by inventories (22.64% at the end of 2015), the cost of which for the period from 2013 to 2015. grew up. Due to the increase in sales volume, Oliris LLC increased the volume of purchases.

Table 2.2 - Analysis of the dynamics and structure of the property of Oliris LLC for 2013 - 2015

Indicators	Deviation of 2015 from 2013	Growth rate 2015 by 2013

1. Non-current assets
Fixed assets
Unfinished construction
Deferred tax assets
2. Current assets


Accounts receivable
Short-term financial investments
Cash

In 2015, the organization acquired short-term financial investments. During this period, the organization began to more actively resort to such a means of sale as the provision of a commercial loan. This was done in order to somehow reduce the growth rate of accounts receivable.

The organization's non-current assets are mainly represented by fixed assets, the value of which for the period from 2013 to 2015 was. increased by 7.5 times or by 10,198 thousand rubles. As noted, this was due to increased sales volumes, which caused the organization to increase its assets.

In general, the structure of the balance sheet asset cannot be considered satisfactory, however, it meets the specifics of the activity of the analyzed organization. The negative point is the growth of accounts receivable and its high value.

The dynamics and structure of sources of financing the organization's property for 2013 - 2015 are presented in Table 2.3.

Table 2.3 - Dynamics and structure of sources of formation of property of Oliris LLC for 2013 - 2015

Indicators	Deviation of 2015 from 2013	Growth rate 2015 by 2013

Capital and reserves
Authorized capital
Retained earnings of the reporting year
Long-term liabilities

Current liabilities
Loans and credits
Accounts payable

An analysis of the dynamics and structure of sources of property formation showed that financing of assets is carried out at the expense of own and borrowed funds, while in the structure of liabilities of Oliris LLC at the end of 2015, borrowed capital occupied the largest share.

In 2013 - 2014 the organization did not attract loans and borrowings as sources of financing, and in 2015 took out a short-term loan, the amount of which at the end of the year amounted to 23,250 thousand rubles. Due to this, the structure of sources of property has changed significantly. If at the end of 2014 the predominant share was occupied by accounts payable (88.43%), then at the end of 2015 its share decreased and amounted to 54.41%. However, accounts payable increased over the period from 2013 to 2015. 2 times or 20,602 thousand rubles.

Own capital for the period from 2013 to 2015. increased by 2.6 riz or by 5938 thousand rubles. The main growth was due to an increase in retained earnings (2.07 times). The organization allocates part of its net profit to accumulation.

Thus, the organization has a very dangerous situation; it finances its current activities mostly through accounts payable. Such a policy may result in loss of business relationships with creditors and bankruptcy. A positive aspect is attracting a loan, however, this can negatively affect liquidity.

2.3 Assessment of solvency and financial stability of the enterprise

An analysis of financial condition must necessarily include an analysis of liquidity and financial stability. The assessment of the liquidity of the balance sheet of the organization under study is presented in Table 2.4.

An analysis of the liquidity of the balance sheet of Oliris LLC showed that at the end of 2015 the organization’s balance sheet was illiquid. The first condition of liquidity is violated, that is, the most liquid assets do not provide the most urgent obligations. This is due to the low value of cash in the structure of the organization’s property and the high value of accounts payable in the structure of sources of property. Due to the growth of accounts receivable, the organization is forced to delay payments to its counterparties. It is worth noting that a dangerous situation has developed in the organization, since if creditors demand immediate repayment of obligations, Oliris LLC will not be able to do this due to lack of funds. The organization’s activities are also negatively affected by the fact that there is an increase in the payment shortfall in the first group in 2015, due to an increase in accounts payable.

The emergence of short-term borrowed funds at the end of 2015 influenced the fact that the organization’s payment surplus in the second liquidity group decreased. The practical absence of long-term borrowed funds leads to the presence of a payment surplus in the third group. At the same time, slowly selling assets increased over the period from 2013 to 2015, which was due to an increase in inventories. In this regard, there is an increase in the payment surplus in the third group.

The low share of equity capital in the structure of sources of property influenced the fact that the organization does not meet the fourth condition of liquidity. There is an increase in the payment deficiency in the fourth group, which is associated with an increase in non-current assets.

Table 2.4 - Balance of payments of Oliris LLC for 2013 - 2015.

		Payment surplus or deficiency

Most liquid assets (A1)	Most urgent obligations (P1)
Quickly realizable assets (A2)	Short-term liabilities (P2)
Slowly selling assets (A3)	Long-term liabilities (P3)
Hard to sell assets (A3)	Constant liabilities (P4)

To assess solvency in the short term, the following indicators are calculated: current liquidity ratio, quick liquidity ratio, absolute liquidity ratio, total liquidity ratio, and solvency ratio.

Liquidity indicators of Oliris LLC for 2013 - 2015. are presented in table 2.5.

Table 2.5 - Liquidity ratios of Oliris LLC for 2013 - 2015

An analysis of the organization's liquidity showed that in 2013 - 2015 the value of the current liquidity ratio decreased by 0.155 points and at the end of 2015 the ratio did not correspond to the recommended value. The decrease in the ratio is due to an increase in short-term liabilities. The quick liquidity ratio for 2013 - 2015 increased by 0.132 points due to an increase in accounts receivable. However, at the end of 2015 its value does not reach the recommended value. As for the absolute liquidity ratio, its value is completely consistent with the recommended one, and its dynamics are growing. This is due to the emergence of short-term financial investments. The value of the total liquidity ratio for the period from 2013 to 2015 increased by 0.219, which is due to an increase in current assets.

Thus, we can conclude that Oliris LLC has low liquidity. However, for the period from 2013 to 2015. it's improving a little. At the same time, the solvency restoration coefficient is less than one, which means that the organization will not be able to restore its solvency within 6 months. Oliris LLC needs to reduce accounts payable, as well as increase the amount of equity capital.

The financial stability of an organization is its financial independence and the compliance of the state of the company’s assets and liabilities with the tasks of financial and economic activities.

The financial stability indicators of Oliris LLC for 2014 - 2015 are shown in Table 2.6.

Table 2.6 - Indicators of financial stability of Oliris LLC for 2013 - 2015, thousand rubles.

Indicator				Change 2015 / 2013 (+; -)
1. Own capital
2. Non-current assets
3. Long-term liabilities
4. Current liabilities
5. Own working capital (page 1 - page 2)
6. Availability of own and long-term borrowed sources of funds (line 5 + line 3)
7. The total value of the main sources of reserves and costs (p. 6 + p. 4)

9. Providing the organization’s reserves and expenses with the amount of its own working capital (page 5-page 8)
10. Providing the organization’s reserves and costs with the amount of its own working capital and long-term liabilities (page 6-page 8)
11. Providing the organization’s reserves and expenses with the amount of its own working capital, long-term liabilities and short-term loans and credits (page 7-page 8)
12. Type of financial stability	crisis	crisis	unstable

The assessment of the type of financial stability indicates that Oliris LLC had an unstable financial condition in 2015.

The organization's reserves are not provided with its own working capital, the cost of which is negative. At the same time, at the end of 2013, the cost of own working capital was positive, but it was not enough to cover inventories and costs, and the organization did not attract borrowed funds. Due to this, at that time she was in a financial crisis.

At the end of 2015, the organization had a negative value of its own working capital, which was due to the growth of non-current assets. However, financial stability has improved due to the attraction of short-term loans.

The analysis of the financial condition of the organization is complemented by the calculation of the relative coefficients of financial stability of Oliris LLC for 2013 - 2015 (Table 2.7).

In general, for the period from 2013 to 2015. The relative indicators of financial stability of Oliris LLC, defined in the table, characterize the organization as financially unstable.

The autonomy coefficient in 2015 does not correspond to the recommended value and is 0.129, thus, equity capital accounts for 12.9% of all sources of financing the organization’s assets. It is worth noting that this coefficient shows the share of owners in the total amount of funds invested in the organization. The larger it is, the more stable and independent the organization is.

During the analyzed period, the value of the autonomy coefficient decreased by 0.026, which is due to a greater increase in the value of liabilities than an increase in the value of equity capital.

This decrease negatively affects the activities of the organization, as its stability and independence decreases.

Table 2.7 - Relative indicators of financial stability of Oliris LLC for 2013 - 2015

		Change 2015/2013 (+,-)
1. Autonomy coefficient
2. Financial dependency ratio
3. Financial stability ratio	in the zone 0.5-0.75
4. Equity capital agility ratio
5. Equity ratio
6. Ratio of provision of inventories with own funds

Financial dependency ratio for the period from 2013 to 2015. increased by 1,307 points. In 2015, the amount of liabilities exceeded own funds by 6.8 times. The growth of the ratio is due to an increase in accounts payable and borrowing. The organization's dependence on borrowed capital is very high, which negatively affects its financial activities.

The financial stability ratio does not reach the recommended value. The coefficient of maneuverability of equity capital is negative, which is due to the negative value of own working capital. The situation is the same with the ratios of the provision of own funds and the provision of inventories with own funds.

Thus, we can conclude that at present Oliris LLC is a financially unstable organization, its financial condition is assessed as unstable.

solvency financial forecast reserve

3. Forecast analysis of the financial condition of the organization

3.1 Analysis of the financial results of the enterprise

It is necessary to conduct a horizontal and vertical analysis of financial results, which is presented in table 3.1.

From the data in Table 3.1 it follows that revenue at Oliris LLC is increasing every year (Figure 3). In 2014, it increased by 21.92% or by 37,928 thousand rubles, in 2015 - by 16.05% or by 33,862 thousand rubles. In general, for the period from 2013 to 2015. revenue grew by 41.49%. As already noted, the growth in the organization’s sales volumes is due to an increase in wholesale and retail customers. On the negative side, it is necessary to include a decrease in the revenue growth rate in 2015.

For the period from 2013 to 2015. the cost also increased (by 35.95%), which was due to an increase in product purchases. The positive thing is that costs are growing at a slower rate than revenue. Its share in the revenue structure is decreasing, and in 2015, cost accounted for 90.44% of revenue.

Figure 3 - Dynamics of revenue and cost of sales of Oliris LLC for 2013 - 2015, thousand rubles.

Table 3.1 - Analysis of financial results of Oliris LLC for 2013 - 2015

Indicator

Change 2014/2013

Change 2015/2014

Change 2015/2013

amount, etc.

specific gravity, %

amount, etc.

specific gravity, %

amount, etc.

specific gravity, %

absolute

relative, %

absolute

relative, %

absolute

relative, %

Cost price

Gross profit (loss)

Administrative expenses

Profit (loss) from sales

Interest receivable

Other income

Other expenses

Profit (loss) before tax

Current income tax

Change in deferred tax assets

Change in deferred tax liabilities

Net profit (loss)

Due to the fact that production costs are growing at a lower rate than revenue, the organization’s gross profit for the period from 2013 to 2015 increased by 2.3 times or by 13,241 thousand rubles. (Figure 4).

Figure 4 - Dynamics of the main profit indicators of Oliris LLC for 2013 - 2015, thousand rubles.

For the period from 2013 to 2015. administrative expenses increased 2.3 times or by 3,669 thousand rubles. The increase in management costs is due to the fact that in 2014 - 2015. The organization increased the cost of maintaining management personnel.

The organization for the period from 2013 to 2015. sales profit increased 2.3 times or by 9572 thousand rubles.

In 2014 - 2015 The organization now has interest receivable, and in 2015 it increased by 3.3 times or by 2,392 thousand rubles. In 2015, Oliris LLC increased the volume of commercial loans provided, as evidenced by the increase in short-term financial investments. Other income decreased over the period from 2013 to 2015. by 71.9% or by 1126 thousand rubles. The decrease in other income is associated with a decrease in income in the form of fines and penalties, income from sublease of property, as well as from positive exchange rate differences. Other expenses decreased over the period from 2013 to 2015 by 57.96% or by 1005 thousand rubles. This decrease was caused by a decrease in other non-operating expenses.

For the period from 2013 to 2015. The organization's profit before tax increased by 2.8 times or by 12,871 thousand rubles, and net profit increased by 2.3 times or by 6,217 thousand rubles. (Figure 5).

Figure 5 - Dynamics of profit (loss) before tax and net profit (loss) of Oliris LLC for 2013 - 2015, thousand rubles.

Thus, we can conclude that the financial results of Oliris LLC are improving every year, and the organization’s activities are becoming more and more profitable.

3.2 Forecast analysis of the financial condition of the organization

Let's draw up a forecast balance sheet for Oliris LLC for 2016. The balance is forecast based on the balance sheet method. The forecast balance of Oliris LLC for 2016 is presented in table 3.2

Table 3.2 - Forecast balance of Oliris LLC for 2016

Indicators	As of December 31, 2015	As of December 31, 2016	Change
1. Total non-current assets
2. Current assets

Value added tax on purchased assets
Accounts receivable
Financial investments
Cash
Total for the section

3. Capital and reserves
Authorized capital
Retained earnings (uncovered loss)
Total for the section
4. Long-term liabilities
Deferred tax liabilities
Total for the section
5. Current liabilities
Loans and credits
Accounts payable
Total for the section

The value of non-current assets will increase in proportion to revenue, since this growth must be ensured by fixed assets. Inventory is forecast based on base turnover.

As a result of improving the credit policy, applying a system of discounts, and selling part of the receivables to a factor company, it will be possible to reduce it to 21,499 thousand rubles in the forecast period.

Financial investments will grow in proportion to revenue, as the organization plans to continue selling goods on credit.

Cash will also grow in proportion to revenue.

All net profit will go to replenish retained earnings.

Deferred tax liabilities are projected in proportion to revenue.

Accounts payable will be reduced to 30,332 thousand rubles. The balancing line is the line - “short-term loans and credits”. As a result of the proposed recommendations, the organization will reduce its dependence on borrowed capital.

As a result, in the forecast period, equity capital will increase, receivables and payables will decrease.

3.3 Assessing the influence of factors on the projected financial condition of the organization

For the purpose of predictive analysis of the financial condition of the organization, we use the method of deterministic factor analysis through chain substitutions.

For analysis, we take the cost formula for 1 ruble of products and analyze the impact on the amount of revenue of the total cost and the cost indicator for 1 ruble of products using the method of chain substitutions. The data required for factor analysis is shown in Table 3.3

Table 3.3 - Dynamics of costs per 1 ruble of products sold by OJSC Confectionery Plant "Kuban" 2013 - 2015

The calculations and results obtained are reflected in Table 3.4.

Based on the analysis, we can conclude that revenue for the period from 2013 to 2015 increased by 41.5% due to a decrease in costs by 1 ruble. products sold.

Table 3.4. - Factor analysis of revenue by costs per 1 ruble of products sold

The increase in revenue was due to a decrease in costs per 1 ruble of commercial products by 3.1%.

And although the total cost for the period from 2013 to 2015 also increased, the increase was 37.5%, however, this also had a positive effect on revenue, most likely due to an increase in production volumes.

We will also analyze the impact of capital productivity and the average annual cost of fixed assets on revenue; for this we use the capital productivity formula.

The data required for factor analysis is shown in Table 3.5.

Table 3.5 - Dynamics of capital productivity of OJSC Confectionery Plant "Kuban" 2013 - 2015

Calculations and results obtained are reflected in table 3.6

Table 3.6 - Factor analysis of revenue

Indicators		Result
Revenue 1	B1 = OSb? FOB B1 = 1464 ? 118.2
Revenue 2	B2 = OCo? FOB B2 = 8708.5? 118.2
Revenue 3	Q3 = Foo? Oso B3 = 8708.5? 28.1
Impact of the average annual cost of fixed assets on revenue	In OS = B2B1 In OS = 1029344.7173044.8
Impact of capital productivity on revenue	B Fo = B3B2 V Fo = 244708.91029344.7
	Total = V OS + R Fo Rototal = 856299.9+(- 784635.8)

Based on the conducted factor analysis, we conclude that the increase in revenue in the reporting period by 71,790 thousand rubles. occurred as a result of an increase in the average annual cost of fixed assets in the period from 2013 to 2015 by 7244.5 thousand rubles.

A decrease in capital productivity by 76.2% had a negative impact on revenue. However, since the growth rate of the average annual cost of fixed assets exceeds the rate of decline in capital productivity, revenue increased in the analyzed period.

As a result of the forecast analysis carried out using chain formulations, it can be concluded that such a trend in the development of the enterprise will lead to a further increase in revenue.

Reduce accounts payable, which will lead to increased liquidity and financial stability. Oliris LLC needs to abandon the policy of financing its activities with accounts payable;

Increase equity capital, which will lead to increased liquidity and financial condition.

To reduce accounts receivable, it is necessary to implement an effective credit policy. The analysis showed that Oliris LLC has already begun to provide commercial loans in order not to accumulate receivables. However, this is not enough.

Currently, Oliris LLC conducts its credit policy in such a way that the same conditions apply to all buyers and customers.

It is proposed to change this policy, tighten the conditions for some buyers, and make them more profitable for others by applying a system of discounts.

That part of the debtors that has a debt period of more than 120 days should be classified as unscrupulous buyers, from whom it is practically impossible to wait for payment of the debt. It is proposed to apply factoring to this part of buyers.

For new customers of the organization, as well as regular customers, it is proposed to apply the system of discounts presented in Table 3.7.

This system of discounts obviously encourages Oliris LLC customers to pay for work performed on time or earlier.

Table 3.7 - Discount system for customers of Oliris LLC for 2016

By paying off accounts receivable, Oliris LLC will be able to pay off its accounts payable. It is better for an organization to restructure part of its accounts payable by distributing its repayment evenly across months. The organization may begin to purchase some materials on credit.

By directing a significant part, or even all, of net profit to accumulation, the organization will be able to increase its own capital.

Thus, by improving its credit policy, introducing new tools to stimulate buyers, and rationally distributing net profit, Oliris LLC will be able to significantly increase the level of its financial condition.

The financial condition of an enterprise refers to the ability of an enterprise to finance its activities. It is characterized by the availability of financial resources necessary for the normal functioning of the enterprise, the appropriateness of their placement and efficiency of use, financial relationships with other legal entities and individuals, solvency and financial stability.

There are different methods for assessing financial condition, which mainly differ in the set of indicators for such assessment. The choice of a particular technique depends on the specific situation, on the specifics of a particular organization.

The work assessed the financial condition of the organization Oliris LLC.

The analysis carried out in the work allowed us to identify the following main shortcomings in managing the financial condition of Oliris LLC:

The organization has an ineffective structure of current assets and a very large share of receivables. In addition, accounts receivable are constantly growing, which leads to a significant diversion of funds from circulation;

The organization's activities are financed primarily only through accounts payable, which is completely unacceptable. The organization, due to shortfalls in funds from debtors, delays payments to its creditors, and due to the lack of its own working capital, uses accounts payable as a source of financing. This is a very dangerous policy; it can lead to the loss of long-term and strong ties with creditors, as well as to the bankruptcy of the organization;

Low share of equity capital in the structure of property sources. The organization has a very high degree of dependence on debt capital, which negatively affects its liquidity and financial stability.

To improve the financial condition of Oliris LLC, it is necessary to:

Reduce accounts receivable. The organization urgently needs funds to finance its activities, and significant funds are concentrated in accounts receivable (25.5 million rubles). Reducing accounts receivable will not only free up additional funds, but will also help improve the entire operating activity of the organization;

financial property profitability solvency

There are usually four methods for predicting the financial stability of a business entity:

Extrapolation;

Turnover timing method;

Budgeting method;

Method of preliminary (forecast) balances.

Extrapolation

When using the first method, it is assumed that there is a direct relationship between working capital and sales volume, which can be expressed using a simple ratio (the ratio of net working capital to sales volume). Or using the coupling equation:

where a is the constant value of net working capital;

b is a regression coefficient reflecting the degree of dependence of working capital on sales volume.

Knowing the value of these coefficients and the projected sales volumes, it is possible to determine the need for net working capital (financial and operational need for working capital).

However, this method is quite simplified, since it takes into account a single factor - sales volume, while the level of need for short-term financing largely depends on the turnover period of inventories, accounts receivable and payable, etc. .

Turnover period method

The second method for determining net working capital is based on studying the duration of the production and commercial cycle: the inventory turnover period plus the accounts receivable turnover period minus the accounts payable turnover period multiplied by one-day sales turnover.

However, this method has its drawbacks, since turnover periods are not normative, but change under the influence of various factors and therefore, in turn, require forecasting and clarification.

The budgeting method is based on planning the receipt and expenditure of funds, including from core, investment and financial activities, described in detail by O.F. Efimova “Financial Analysis”. The calculation of deviations between receipts and payments shows the planned change in funds and creates the basis for making appropriate management decisions. Forecasting cash flows allows you to determine the size of the excess and shortage of cash in the turnover of the enterprise. The reality of forecasts for the receipt and expenditure of funds depends on the degree of their uncertainty.

Method of preliminary forecast balances

One of the methods of financial forecasting is the preparation of a forecast income statement and a forecast balance sheet, most fully covered by D.A. Pankov “Accounting and Analysis in Foreign Countries”. Forecast reporting can be prepared at the end of each month, quarter, or year. It will allow you to establish and evaluate the changes that will occur in the assets of the enterprise and the sources of their formation as a result of business operations for the planned period of time.

The forecast balance can be drawn up on the basis of a system of planned calculations of all indicators of production and financial activity, as well as on the basis of the dynamics of individual balance sheet items and their relationships. Computer programs for financial modeling can provide great assistance in developing forecast financial statements and models of the financial condition of an enterprise.

A comparison of the forecast values of balance sheet items with the actual ones at the end of the reporting period will make it possible to determine what changes will occur in the financial condition of the enterprise, which will make it possible to make adjustments to its production and financial strategy.

Analysis and forecast of the financial condition of an enterprise in a market economy

Analysis of the financial condition of an enterprise using the example of the Ardo mini-hotel

The term "method" is used in Russian in the broad and narrow sense of the word and, translated from Greek, has two meanings: a way of knowing, studying natural phenomena and social life - in the broad sense of the word; reception...

Analysis of the financial condition of an enterprise using the example of Prom-West OJSC

The repertoire of methods for analyzing the financial condition of an organization contains a huge number of different techniques, tools and techniques. However, the following are most often used: 1 method of absolute...

Study of the insolvency (bankruptcy) of an enterprise using statistical and mathematical methods of analysis

The upcoming threat of bankruptcy is assessed using financial stability indicators. The financial position of an enterprise is stable if its financial resources are covered by its own funds by at least 50%.

Comprehensive economic analysis of financial activities

Methods for financial forecasting of enterprise development and possible bankruptcy

Financial forecasts are a complex multi-stage and integrative process, during which a wide range of various socio-economic, scientific and technical problems must be solved...

Basic technical and economic indicators of the organization’s (enterprise’s) activity and methods of their calculation

The following main methods or standards of financial analysis are distinguished: 1. Analysis of absolute indicators; 2. Horizontal (time) analysis - comparison of each reporting item with the previous period; 3...

Assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise and the mechanism for its recovery

2. Show an assessment of financial stability and solvency. 3. Show an assessment of the probability of bankruptcy. 4. Give a brief technical and economic description of the activities of SK Forma LLC. 5...

Assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise LLC SK "Forma"

Financial condition refers to the ability of an enterprise to finance its activities. The financial condition of an enterprise is an economic category that reflects the ability of an enterprise to finance its activities...

Solvency restoration strategy

All economic entities, regardless of their form of ownership, enter into relations with government agencies and banks, supplier enterprises and consumers, etc. at a certain period...

The essence and role of financial planning in an enterprise

It is known...

Theoretical foundations for conducting financial analysis and assessing the financial stability of an enterprise

The method of financial analysis is understood as a way of approaching the study of economic processes in their formation and development. The main goal of financial analysis is to obtain the maximum number of the most informative parameters...

Managing the financial condition of an enterprise (using the example of Sverdlovenergoremont OJSC)

Different authors offer different methods that reflect financial condition. At this time, all literature can be divided into two groups: books by foreign authors and books written on the basis of Russian experience...

It is obvious that entrepreneurship is an activity related to investing funds and generating income. Funds are invested today, and income will be extracted tomorrow. To assess the possible amount of income and the effectiveness of investments, it is necessary to determine not only the sequence of actions and calculate their expected result, but also the future state of the enterprise and the external environment, including the conditions for selling products, and the behavior of competitors. possible structure of assets and sources of their financing, etc. And without these assessments, calculations of the effectiveness of investments are unlikely to satisfy the minimum reliability requirements. Determining the future state of an enterprise and its environment based on existing trends is forecasting. Whether we realize it or not. but when making any planned or unplanned decisions. assessment of their possible consequences is a mandatory management action. And it is better that this action is carried out systematically and correctly as much as the available information allows. Assessing the consequences of decisions and actions for an enterprise, taking into account current trends in changes in the external environment and the state of the enterprise, or forecasting differs from planning these actions and decisions only in that when planning we are guided primarily by the goal that must be realized, that is, based on the goal, we plan the sequence actions and the required resources for their implementation. When forecasting, the result or the possible degree of achievement of goals is the probable consequences of decisions made or planned. In this sense, forecasting is a necessary component of planning and management. And the success of planning and. Consequently, the management of the enterprise's activities will be completely determined by the quality of forecast estimates of the consequences of decisions made.

Forecasting the results of an enterprise’s activities and its financial condition is carried out with the aim of:

assessment of economic and financial prospects and the expected financial condition of the enterprise for the planned period, depending on the main possible options for its production and sales activities and its financing,
on this basis, forming well-founded conclusions and recommendations regarding the choice of a rational strategy and tactics of action for the top management of the enterprise.

Strategic and tactical decisions may include the production and sales program of the enterprise for the planned period, the planned structure of assets, including current assets, a fundamental scheme for financing the assets and activities of the enterprise for the planned period, the opportunity to implement one or another investment project, etc. That is, any decision on the use of financial resources and the consequences of the implementation of this decision for the financial condition of the enterprise can be subjected to a predictive assessment.

Taking into account the extremely unstable financial condition of a significant part of Russian enterprises. One of the tasks of financial forecasting may be opportunity assessment. basic conditions and terms for normalizing the state of the enterprise. that is, the possibilities and conditions for its financial recovery. In this sense, financial forecasting is a necessary element of crisis management.

Forecasting, as noted above. is a necessary component of management and one of the main conditions (according to R. Braley and S. Myers - Principles of Corporate Finance) of effective planning and this determines its importance in the enterprise management system. Any decision must be preceded by an analysis of the current situation and a forecast of the possible consequences of its adoption or non-acceptance.

To make analysis and forecasting procedures concrete, eliminate abstract assumptions like “What if...” and bring the decision-making process within the boundaries of accepted strategic priorities, it seems advisable to determine the normal parameters of the enterprise’s activity within each planning (forecast) period, that is, the main indicators of its performance , considered the norm. In this case, the analysis and forecasting processes will have the main content of comparing the actual (predicted) values of the enterprise’s operating parameters with normal ones, and the planning process will be the development of measures to bring the real state of the enterprise to normal.

The financial condition of an enterprise can be quite correctly described using three classical models: the balance of income and expenses, the balance of assets and liabilities, and the balance of receipts and payments. These same models make it possible to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the enterprise. Therefore, the methodological basis for forecasting the financial condition and performance of enterprises should be these three balances. The balance of income and expenses, which describes the results of the enterprise’s activities for the period, the balance of assets and liabilities, which creates the financial image of the enterprise and characterizes the structure of its assets and liabilities, and the balance of receipts and payments, which represents the movement of funds between the enterprise and its counterparties and gives a complete picture of the dynamics collection of receivables and financing of all operations of the enterprise for the period, together form the financial model of the enterprise. Therefore, forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise and the results of its activities is the process of creating options for the financial model of the enterprise. taking into account any possible decisions on the formation of a production and sales program, on the implementation of investment projects, on the acquisition of materials and raw materials, on determining the timing of commercial loans to consumers, on the formation of a wage fund, on the purchase of three brooms, etc. etc.

The process of forming a financial model of an enterprise (and forecasting its condition) has the following sequence. The first is to develop a balance of income and expenses. The projected (planned) results of the enterprise's activities for the period and the initial state of assets and liabilities are the basis for designing the balance sheet of assets and liabilities. The contents of the two previous balance sheets allow you to calculate (precisely calculate!) the flow of receipts and payments for the period.

Since the formation of three balance sheets is an absolutely formalized procedure, the rules of which are determined by accounting standards, and the relationships between balance sheets are equally formalized, the process of financial forecasting can be easily computerized. This allows you to quickly, in real time, make assessments of the consequences of any possible financial decisions.

The procedure for predicting the financial condition and performance of an enterprise includes, firstly. preparation of initial information about the state of the enterprise and preparation of planning decisions, divided into six blocks. Block one – the initial state of the enterprise’s assets and liabilities, financial reporting data. Block two – planned (predicted) sales volume and conditions for product sales. This is information from the sales (marketing) service. Block three – planned investments and disinvestments in non-current assets. This information is prepared by the financial department on the basis of preliminary (project) planning decisions on the technical development of the enterprise. Block four - forecasted warehouse stocks of finished products and materials at the end of the period, balances of work in progress, the amount of accounts receivable and other elements of current assets. Forecast estimates should be made by the financial department after consultation with the relevant services of the enterprise. Block five - decisions on changing the authorized capital and paying dividends. Block six - project decisions on financing the activities of the enterprise for the forecast period, including obtaining and repaying long-term and short-term loans, changes in the amount of commercial accounts payable, balances of arrears of wages and payments to the budget and extra-budgetary funds. In addition, for modeling it is necessary to use a computerized tax calculation unit or enter information about the amount of payments calculated by other methods to be paid to the budget and extra-budgetary funds during the forecast period. The second step is to structure the initial information in a certain way, that is, enter it into appropriate formats (tables). Further, based on this structured information, a financial model of the enterprise and forecast balances of income and expenses, assets and liabilities, receipts and payments are created. The resulting balances are the basis for making decisions.

Indicators

Deviation of 2015 from 2013

Growth rate 2015 to 2013

Revenue from product sales, thousand rubles.

Average annual cost of fixed assets, thousand rubles.

Capital productivity

The forecasting period can be fundamentally anything: from a month to fifty years. His choice is determined. firstly, the purposes of forecasting. that is, the nature of the decisions. to be accepted using forecast estimates, and secondly, the reliability of the initial information. Obviously, it makes no sense to make forecast calculations when there is an error in some data, for example, sales volume. exceeds 15 – 20%. Such a forecast makes little sense, since decisions whose consequences have a probability of implementation of + 20% can be made without laborious forecast calculations. In the current conditions of Russia, forecast calculations can give quite correct results when choosing a forecast period from several days to 2 – 2.5 years. This choice is due to the fact. What. on the one hand, to assess the immediate prospects, a short-term forecast is necessary: on the other hand, in order to rationalize the choice and evaluate the strategy and tactics of action, the top management of the enterprise should evaluate its prospects for at least 2 years. since during this period investments in more or less effective investment projects pay off.

To assess the impact on the financial condition and performance of the enterprise of probable changes in the main factors (sales, costs, etc.), it is advisable to carry out forecast calculations using several options with different initial data (production program, production cost structure, investments, etc.). In practice, it is customary to most often evaluate the future in three options: pessimistic. optimistic and realistic. This allows managers! the enterprise should be prepared for unexpected troubles. and luckily for the occasion.

On the procedure for generating initial data for forecasting, the main assumptions that are appropriate when carrying out forecast calculations. We plan to cover the technique of calculations and methods for interpreting the results in the following articles of this series.

Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………………………….3

Classification of forecasting methods………………………………………………………..5

Review of basic forecasting methods…………………………………………………….10

Simple dynamic analysis…………………………………………………………………………………10

Multivariate regression analysis………………………………………………………12

Forecasting based on proportional relationships………………….13

Balance model for forecasting the economic potential of an enterprise…….15

Analytical reporting forms……………………………………………………………….16

Combined method……………………………………………………………………………….19

Forecast accuracy…………………………………………………………………………………25

Literature…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..28

Introduction

The purpose of analyzing the financial and economic activities of an enterprise is to assess its current financial condition, as well as to determine in which areas work needs to be done to improve this condition. At the same time, it is desirable to have such a state of financial resources in which the enterprise, freely maneuvering funds, is able, through their effective use, to ensure the uninterrupted process of production and sales of products, as well as the costs of its expansion and renewal. Thus, the internal users of financial information in relation to a given enterprise are the enterprise management employees, on whom its future financial condition depends.

At the same time, financial condition is the most important characteristic of the economic activity of an enterprise in the external environment. It determines the competitiveness of the enterprise, its potential in business cooperation, assesses the extent to which the economic interests of the enterprise itself and its partners in financial and other relations are guaranteed. Therefore, we can assume that the second main task of the analysis is to show the state of the enterprise for external consumers, the number of which increases significantly with the development of market relations. External users of financial information can be divided into two large groups: persons and organizations that have a direct financial interest - founders, shareholders, potential investors, suppliers and buyers of products (services), various creditors, employees of the enterprise, as well as the state, primarily represented by tax authorities. So, in particular, the financial condition of an enterprise is the main criterion for banks when deciding the feasibility or inexpediency of issuing a loan to it, and if this issue is resolved positively, at what interest and for what period; users who have an indirect (mediated) financial interest are auditing and consulting firms, government bodies, various financial institutions (exchanges, associations, etc.), legislative bodies and statistical bodies, the press and news agencies.

All these users of financial statements set themselves the task of analyzing the state of the enterprise and, on its basis, drawing conclusions about the directions of their activities in relation to the enterprise in the short or long term. Thus, in the vast majority of cases, these will be conclusions about their actions in relation to this enterprise in the future, and therefore for all these persons the future (forecast) financial condition of the enterprise will be of greatest interest. This explains the extreme importance of the task of determining the forecast financial condition of an enterprise and the relevance of issues related to the development of new and improvement of existing methods for such forecasting.

The relevance of tasks associated with forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise is reflected in one of the definitions of financial analysis used, according to which financial analysis is a process based on the study of data on the financial condition of an enterprise and the results of its activities in the past in order to assess future conditions and performance results. Thus, the main task of financial analysis is to reduce the inevitable uncertainty associated with making future-oriented economic decisions. With this approach, financial analysis can be used as a tool for justifying short- and long-term economic decisions and the feasibility of investments; as a means of assessing the skill and quality of management; as a way to predict future financial results. Financial forecasting can significantly improve enterprise management by ensuring the coordination of all production and sales factors, the interconnection of the activities of all departments, and the distribution of responsibilities.

The degree of correspondence of the conclusions made during the analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise with reality is largely determined by the quality of the information support of the analysis. Despite a lot of criticism of accounting reporting in our country, entities external to the enterprise, as a rule, do not have any other information. These persons use published information and do not have access to the internal information base of the enterprise.

Classification of forecasting methods

In economically developed countries, the use of formalized financial management models is becoming increasingly widespread. The degree of formalization is directly dependent on the size of the enterprise: the larger the company, the more its management can and should use formalized approaches in financial policy. Western scientific literature notes that about 50% of large firms and about 18% of small and medium-sized firms prefer to focus on formalized quantitative methods in managing financial resources and analyzing the financial condition of an enterprise. Below is a classification of quantitative methods for forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise.

The starting point of any of the methods is the recognition of the fact of some continuity (or certain stability) of changes in indicators of financial and economic activity from one reporting period to another. Therefore, in general, a long-term analysis of the financial condition of an enterprise is a study of its financial and economic activities in order to determine the financial condition of this enterprise in the future. The list of predicted indicators can vary significantly. This set of values can be taken as the first criterion for classifying methods. So, according to the set of predicted indicators, forecasting methods can be divided into:

Methods in which one or more individual indicators are forecast that are of greatest interest and significance to the analyst, for example, sales revenue, profit, cost of production, etc.

Methods in which forecast reporting forms are constructed entirely in a standard or enlarged nomenclature of articles. Based on the analysis of data from past periods, each item (enlarged item) of the balance sheet and report and financial results is predicted. The huge advantage of the methods of this group is that the resulting reports allow a comprehensive analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise. The analyst receives a maximum of information that he can use for various purposes, for example, to determine the acceptable rate of increase in production activities, to calculate the required amount of additional financial resources from external sources, to calculate any financial ratios, etc.

Methods for forecasting reporting, in turn, are divided into methods in which each item is predicted separately based on its individual dynamics, and methods that take into account the existing relationship between individual items, both within one reporting form and from different forms. Indeed, various reporting lines should change dynamically in a consistent manner, since they characterize the same economic system.

Depending on the type of model used, all forecasting methods can be divided into three large groups (see Figure 1):

Expert assessment methods, which involve a multi-stage survey of experts according to special schemes and processing of the results obtained using economic statistics tools. These are the simplest and most popular methods, the history of which goes back more than one millennium. The application of these methods in practice usually involves using the experience and knowledge of trade, financial, and production managers of the enterprise. This usually ensures that the decision is made in the easiest and fastest way. The disadvantage is the reduction or complete absence of personal responsibility for the forecast made. Expert assessments are used not only to predict the values of indicators, but also in analytical work, for example, to develop weighting coefficients, threshold values of controlled indicators, etc.

Stochastic methods, suggesting the probabilistic nature of both the forecast and the relationship between the studied indicators. The likelihood of obtaining an accurate forecast increases with the number of empirical data. These methods occupy a leading position in terms of formalized forecasting and vary significantly in the complexity of the algorithms used. The simplest example is to study trends in sales volumes by analyzing the growth rates of sales indicators. Forecasting results obtained by statistical methods are subject to the influence of random fluctuations in data, which can sometimes lead to serious miscalculations.

Rice. 1. Classification of methods for forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise

Stochastic methods can be divided into three typical groups, which will be named below. The choice of a method for forecasting a particular group depends on many factors, including the available source data.

The first situation - the presence of a time series - occurs most often in practice: a financial manager or analyst has at his disposal data on the dynamics of an indicator, on the basis of which it is necessary to build an acceptable forecast. In other words, we are talking about identifying a trend. This can be done in various ways, the main ones being simple dynamic analysis and analysis using autoregressive dependencies.

The second situation - the presence of a spatial aggregate - occurs if for some reason there is no statistical data on the indicator or there is reason to believe that its value is determined by the influence of certain factors. In this case, multivariate regression analysis can be used, which is an extension of simple dynamic analysis to a multivariate case.

The third situation - the presence of a spatio-temporal set - occurs in the case when: a) the time series are not long enough to construct statistically significant forecasts; b) the analyst intends to take into account in the forecast the influence of factors that differ in economic nature and their dynamics. The initial data are matrixes of indicators, each of which represents the values of the same indicators for different periods or for different consecutive dates.

Deterministic methods that assume the presence of functional or strictly determined connections, when each value of a factor characteristic corresponds to a well-defined non-random value of the resultant characteristic. As an example, we can cite the dependencies implemented within the framework of the well-known factor analysis model of the DuPont company. Using this model and substituting into it the forecast values of various factors, such as sales revenue, asset turnover, degree of financial dependence and others, you can calculate the forecast value of one of the main performance indicators - the return on equity ratio.

Another very clear example is the form of a profit and loss statement, which is a tabular implementation of a strictly determined factor model that connects the resulting attribute (profit) with factors (sales income, level of costs, level of tax rates, etc.).

Here we cannot fail to mention another group of methods based on the construction of dynamic enterprise simulation models. Such models include data on planned purchases of materials and components, production and sales volumes, cost structure, investment activity of the enterprise, tax environment, etc. Processing this information within the framework of a unified financial model allows us to assess the projected financial condition of the company with a very high degree of accuracy. In reality, this kind of model can only be built using personal computers, which allow one to quickly perform a huge amount of necessary calculations. However, these methods are not the subject of this work, since they must be based on much broader information support than the financial statements of the enterprise, which makes it impossible for them to be used by external analysts.

Formal models for forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise are criticized on two main points: (a) during the modeling, several forecast options can, and in fact should, be developed, and it is impossible to determine which one is better using formalized criteria; (b) any financial model only simplifies the relationship between economic indicators. In fact, both theses hardly have a negative connotation; they merely point out to the analyst the limitations of any forecasting method that must be kept in mind when using the forecast results.

« A message or notification (notification) is a type of document that the management of an LLC or individual entrepreneur must send to the relevant authorities. This... »

What benefits can entrepreneurs in the Moscow region receive? Tax benefits for small businesses

« In every region of our country there are programs that provide various subsidies, compensation, benefits and other types of assistance.... »

Year of the Volunteer in Russia Year of the Volunteer in the Russian Federation

« 2018 has been declared the Year of the Volunteer in Russia. The corresponding decree was signed by the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin. Chapter about this decision... »