Russian name- Black Swan
Latin name- Cygnus atratus
English name
- Black Swan
Class- Birds (Aves)
Detachment- Anseriformes
Family- Ducks (Anatidae)
Genus- swans (Cygnus)
The status of the species in nature
The black swan is quite widespread in its natural habitats and is among the species that are under the least threat.
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Before the Europeans settled Australia, it was believed that swans had only white plumage, but the discovery in 1697 by an expedition led by Willem Vlaminck in the west of the continent of a huge population of black swans changed this idea. True, you can still hear the oldest winged expression of the ancient Roman poet Juvenal - “ good man as rare as a black swan." In Europe, for many years, because of the mourning plumage, the black swan was a frightening bird and was considered a harbinger of trouble. But since the middle of the 19th century, this unusual bird began to be actively imported to Europe and North America to decorate parks and reservoirs.
At home in Australia, the species has undergone active extermination. During molting, the swan (like other anseriformes) loses its ability to fly for a while and becomes easy prey. The number of swans quickly decreased. However, after the adoption of a number of environmental measures. Now, in some areas of Australia and New Zealand, they have again begun to allow minor shooting of swans: their number has increased many times over, and they can sometimes cause great damage. agriculture by raiding the fields.
Spreading
The black swan lives everywhere in Australia and the island of Tasmania, it is well acclimatized in New Zealand, where it was introduced in the century. This bird is an excellent flier, and has managed to adapt to life in the dry climate of Australia, making flights in search of freshwater, sometimes across the entire continent. Unlike other swans, the black swan is not a migratory bird.
Appearance
The black swan is medium in size among swans. Birds can weigh from 5 to 9 kg, growth can reach one and a half meters, wingspan - up to 2 meters, males are usually larger than females. The main color of the plumage is black with a moire tint, the feathers on the edges of the wings are slightly curled. When taking off, white feathers appear in the wing area. The neck is the longest among all swans, the beak is bright red with a white ring at the end. The webbed paws are black, the iris of the eyes is colored in shades of brown.
Diet and feeding behavior
The long neck helps the swan to get food from the bottom of the reservoir. It does not know how to dive, so it feeds in shallow water or on the shore. It feeds mainly on aquatic plants and their rhizomes, as well as plants growing along the banks of water bodies with grass, leaves and young shoots of shrubs and trees. Flocks of swans often feed on the fields of cultivated plants, for which farmers do not like the bird. Moving from one reservoir to another, swans can cover distances of several tens of kilometers.
social behavior
The legend of swan fidelity fully reflects the interaction in a pair of black swans: pairs of these birds form for life.
Within the group of swans, very close, in the literal sense of the word, relationships are also built. And they all fly together to feed, and they build nests, and the chicks are brought out very close to each other. During the nesting period, black swans gather in colonies consisting of several hundred pairs of birds (swans are usually considered pairs). However, adult males may occasionally chase away young to defend their territory while nesting. The male and female build the nest together, they also share the incubation time with each other.
reproduction
Sexual maturity occurs in black swans between the third and fourth years of life. Birds start nesting from February to August, depending on the rainy season. To build a nest, they choose, as a rule, a shallow pond with fresh water, where they make a high and wide nest, up to 1 meter in diameter, from branches and other plant material. From the outside, it looks like a small island, which can sometimes drift across a pond. Immediately after the completion of the construction of the nest, the female lays the first egg, then at intervals of about a day - another 3 to 8 eggs. Incubation of masonry begins with the first egg and lasts a little over a month. The chicks hatch in turns within 2-3 days. For some time they remain in the nest, and then leave it, flopping into the water to one of the parents, the other remains in the nest until the last chick hatches. This is followed by a full family reunion. Parents will take care of the younger generation for the next 3-4 months. Small chicks are covered with dark gray fluff, by the age of six months they fledge and begin to fly confidently, and a year later they reach the size of their parents and already outwardly do not differ from them.
Vocalization
The black swan has a slightly noisy, harsh voice, it can be heard when the birds exchange greetings with each other or warn of danger. During flights, they can make powerful and deep trumpet sounds, well audible over long distances. With such sounds, they can call on relatives or show irritation.
Lifespan
The life expectancy of black swans in nature is about 20 years, in captivity - much longer.
The history of life in the zoo
On the Big Pond, black swans can be seen all year round, but black swans endure frosts worse than their white counterparts, so ornithologists closely monitor the condition of these birds. If the swans are covered with icicles, they are transferred to a warm room. Black swans have a looser plumage than other species, and in severe frosts spray freezes on it.
In our zoo, swans have access to a reservoir with a good gentle slope on which grass grows. In addition, swans at the zoo eat cabbage, grated carrots, millet, corn, wheat and special chicken feed. Thanks to good care and nutrition, chicks appear in the zoo every year, and our visitors are very happy to watch them grow up.
Black, but at the same time the most beautiful of the known varieties of swans, can often be seen in parks. The article presents detailed description birds and colorful pictures.
The black "king of the pond", which stands out not only for the color of feathers, but also for the longest neck among relatives, according to the classification, belongs to the family of ducks and the order of swans. A species native to Australia. The bird looks like this:
- Slightly smaller in size than their white relatives - mute. The length from the neck to the tail is 110-140 cm, and the weight is from 5 to 8 kg.
- The neck consists of 32 vertebrae. Due to this length, representatives of the species get food from the deeper parts of the lakes. At the time when the individual is flying, it is clearly seen that the neck is longer than half of the body.
- Almost all feathers are dark. Some white is found on the underside of the wings. A light feather is noticeable during takeoff.
- Along the edge of the wing, the plumage is slightly twisted upwards. This gives the silhouette splendor.
- The skin on the paws is black, and on the beak is red.
- The little swan is covered with gray down. Beak and legs are black.
- The iris is orange or brown.
Attention! Waterfowl were brought to Europe in the middle of the 18th century. At first, they were disliked and believed that they bring trouble. The reason for this was the dark plumage.
Where does it live and how does it live
In nature, the black-feathered swan is found in Australia and New Zealand. The bird lives near stagnant reservoirs with fresh water. The habitat does not change seasonally.
The mating season for swans begins in time depending on the region of habitat. In our latitudes, this most often occurs in late autumn or winter. A pair of birds form for life. Both parents build a nest, which they subsequently use for more than one year. Together they take care of the offspring. In laying from 4 to 8 eggs covered with a pale green shell.
The chicks hatch after 6 weeks of incubation. For 3 days they are in the nest, then they go to the pond with their mother. The offspring are covered with a gray edge. The beak and legs of the chicks are black. At 5 months from birth, they adapt to fly. Sexual maturity is reached at the age of 2.5-3 years. In nature, the life span of a bird is up to 10 years.
The swan feeds mainly on aquatic vegetation. The diet also includes a small percentage of insects and mollusks. To get food, the bird stands almost vertically in the water and takes out the right one from the very bottom. Sometimes the swan goes in search of food to the meadows and fields adjacent to the reservoir. Here feathered beauties seek out young sprouts.
Attention! Swans quickly adapt to new habitat conditions. Thanks to this, they are successfully bred in zoos around the world.
Nowadays, the swan is considered a symbol Western Australia. The image of a dark bird is on the coats of arms and stamps of several cities on the mainland.
The black swan is a truly majestic bird. Unfortunately, due to the once active hunting, not so many individuals remained in nature, and in some areas of Australia it was completely exterminated.
Black swans: video
Swans are such sophisticated and graceful birds. Our nature has created an amazing variety of these birds, the black swan is one of them.
These birds live on the Australian continent, today the population of black swans is about 500 thousand individuals, and the threat of extinction does not threaten the black swan. For the first time, Europeans met with these beautiful birds in 1697. What does a black swan look like, how does it differ from other types of swans?
The appearance of the black swan bird
The black swan reaches a length of 1.1-1.42 meters, and the weight ranges from 3.7-9 kilograms. The wingspan is 1.6-2 meters. Representatives of this species have the longest neck, curved in the shape of the letter S.
The plumage is black with white flight feathers on the wings. Red beak with white trim. The iris of the eyes is orange or brown.
Females are smaller in size than males. In birds that have not reached puberty, the plumage is light gray, the beak is dark without edging, and the edges of the wings are light. Black swans make musical sounds in the water and in the air.
Black swans are a masterpiece of nature's creation. Habitats of black swans on the planet
The black swan of the duck family is a native of Australia and the islands adjacent to it. Black swans live on almost the entire mainland, with the exception of the northern and central regions. The greatest number of these birds is concentrated in the southwestern and eastern parts of the continent, since these places abound in wetlands.
Nutrition and lifestyle of the black swan
Black swans inhabit the banks of lakes and rivers with rich vegetation. They can swim in the open sea, being hundreds of meters from the shore.
These birds do not make large migrations, but at the same time they easily change their habitat, moving tens of kilometers. The reason for such flights is drought, or, conversely, high humidity.
During the molting period, the black swan loses all plumage and cannot fly for a whole month. At the time of molting, birds do not leave the water surface, thereby protecting themselves from predators.
Basically, black swans feed on plant foods: aquatic plants and small algae. In addition, the diet includes cereals. Also, black swans nibble grass and eat leaves.
Birds, floating on the surface of the water, lower their necks deep into the water and take out vegetation from the bottom. During such dives, the body remains in a horizontal position.
Breeding
Black swans form pairs for life, but 6% of them break up. Nesting time lasts several months between February and September. Birds nest in large colonies.
Pairs build nests in shallow water. The nest made of grass and branches reaches a diameter of 1.5 meters and a height of 1 meter. The couple's nests are used annually, repaired and updated.
The clutch consists of 4-8 eggs. Incubation lasts 35-40 days, while both parents participate in the process. Black swans take care of the chicks for 9 months, until the young are on the wing. Toddlers often climb on the back of their parents and move around like that. These birds are fully formed by the 3rd year of life.
Lifestyle
Unlike many water birds and other species of swans, the black swan is not migratory bird. However, it is very mobile and even relatively small disturbances such as continuous noise can cause it to change location. The new site, however, is usually located no further than 100 km from the old one. Black swans in most cases spend their entire lives in approximately the same region where they were born and raised, reacting to changes in water levels. Young males try to prevent other males from settling in their range. In dry years, many swans gather on the coasts of Australia, in protected lagoons and bays.
Nutrition
Black swans feed mainly on aquatic plants and small algae, they also do not disdain grains, such as wheat or corn. Sometimes they pluck leaves from branches of weeping willows hanging to the water, or coastal grasses.
reproduction
Mating periods vary depending on the region and its typical annual cycles of high water levels. However, black swans brought to Europe sometimes retain their old Australian rhythm and hatch their chicks often in winter. As a rule, black swans nest in colonies, building a large hilly nest in some shallow water. From year to year, they can reuse the same nest, adjusting it as necessary. Like other swans, the black swan is an extremely loyal bird and does not change its partners. Both parents are involved in building the nest and taking care of the offspring.
The female lays four to eight greenish, foul-smelling eggs, which are subsequently incubated alternately by both parents for six weeks. Males do not cope well with this task, as they often forget to turn the eggs over with their beaks or sit down past the eggs. Males and females jointly take care of the chicks, who learn to fly five months after birth. Sexual maturity comes at the age of two and a half to three years, after which the males become quite aggressive, especially in captivity.
Cultural aspects
The first European black swans in Australia are mentioned in 1697 by the traveler Willem de Vlaminck, who named the river where they were seen, the river of swans, or Swan. Reports of black swans were confirmed in 1726, when two individuals caught on the island of Derk Hartog were delivered to Batavia.
The black swan is now considered a symbol of Western Australia, it is depicted on the flag and coat of arms of this state. The image of a black swan can also be found on the stamps and coats of arms of four cities in eastern Australia.
The protagonist of G. Gazdanov's story "Black Swans" (1930) draws an image of Australia as a country of antipodes - an inaccessible paradise of graceful black swans, where life is completely different than in Europe: "And he spoke of the sky covered with mighty black wings - this some other history of the world, this is the possibility of a different understanding of everything that exists.
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Notes
An excerpt characterizing the Black Swan
“The place is convenient,” said the esaul.“We’ll send infantry from below—by swamps,” Denisov continued, “they’ll crawl up to the garden; you will call with the Cossacks from there, ”Denisov pointed to the forest outside the village,“ and I’m from here, with my gusags.
“It won’t be possible in a hollow - it’s a quagmire,” said the esaul. - You will bog down the horses, you have to go around to the left ...
While they were talking in an undertone in this way, below, in the hollow from the pond, one shot clicked, smoke began to turn white, another, and a friendly, as if cheerful, cry of hundreds of voices of the French who were on the half-mountain was heard. In the first minute, both Denisov and the esaul leaned back. They were so close that it seemed to them that they were the cause of these shots and screams. But the shots and screams did not belong to them. Below, through the swamps, a man in something red was running. Obviously, the French were shooting at him and shouting at him.
- After all, this is our Tikhon, - said the esaul.
- He! they are!
“Eka rogue,” said Denisov.
- Leave! - screwing up his eyes, said the esaul.
The man whom they called Tikhon, running up to the river, flopped into it so that the spray flew, and, hiding for a moment, all black from the water, got out on all fours and ran on. The French, who were running after him, stopped.
- Well, clever, - said the esaul.
- What a beast! Denisov said with the same expression of annoyance. And what has he done so far?
- Who is this? Petya asked.
- This is our plast. I sent him to pick up the language.
“Ah, yes,” said Petya from Denisov’s first word, nodding his head as if he understood everything, although he decidedly did not understand a single word.
Tikhon Shcherbaty was one of the most the right people in the party. He was a peasant from Pokrovsky near Gzhatya. When, at the beginning of his actions, Denisov came to Pokrovskoye and, as always, calling the headman, asked what they knew about the French, the headman answered, as all the headmen answered, as if defending themselves, that they did not know anything, know they don't know. But when Denisov explained to them that his goal was to beat the French, and when he asked if the French had wandered into them, the headman said that there had been marauders for sure, but that in their village only Tishka Shcherbaty was engaged in these matters. Denisov ordered Tikhon to be called to him and, praising him for his activities, said a few words in front of the headman about the loyalty to the tsar and the fatherland and hatred for the French, which the sons of the fatherland should observe.
“We do no harm to the French,” said Tikhon, apparently timid at these words of Denisov. - We only so, means, on hunting dabbled with the guys. It’s like two dozen Miroderov were beaten, otherwise we didn’t do anything bad ... - The next day, when Denisov, completely forgetting about this peasant, left Pokrovsky, he was informed that Tikhon had stuck to the party and asked to be left with it. Denisov ordered to leave him.
Tikhon, who at first corrected the menial work of laying fires, delivering water, skinning horses, etc., soon showed a great desire and ability for guerrilla warfare. He went out at night to plunder and each time brought with him a dress and French weapons, and when he was ordered, he brought prisoners. Denisov put Tikhon away from work, began to take him on trips with him and enrolled him in the Cossacks.
Tikhon did not like to ride and always walked, never falling behind the cavalry. His weapons were a blunderbuss, which he wore more for laughter, a lance and an ax, which he owned like a wolf owns teeth, equally easily picking fleas out of wool and biting thick bones with them. Tikhon equally faithfully, with all his might, split logs with an ax and, taking the ax by the butt, cut out thin pegs with it and cut out spoons. In the party of Denisov, Tikhon occupied his own special, exceptional place. When it was necessary to do something especially difficult and ugly - to turn a wagon in the mud with his shoulder, to pull a horse out of the swamp by the tail, skin it, climb into the very middle of the French, walk fifty miles a day - everyone pointed, chuckling, at Tikhon.
“What the hell is he doing, hefty merenina,” they said about him.
Once a Frenchman, whom Tikhon was taking, shot him with a pistol and hit him in the flesh of his back. This wound, from which Tikhon was treated only with vodka, internally and externally, was the subject of the most cheerful jokes in the whole detachment and jokes that Tikhon willingly succumbed to.
"What, brother, won't you?" Ali cringed? the Cossacks laughed at him, and Tikhon, deliberately crouching and making faces, pretending to be angry, scolded the French with the most ridiculous curses. This incident had only the effect on Tikhon that, after his wound, he rarely brought prisoners.
Tikhon was the most helpful and brave man in the party. No one more than him discovered cases of attacks, no one else took him and beat the French; and as a result, he was the jester of all Cossacks, hussars, and he himself willingly succumbed to this rank. Now Tikhon was sent by Denisov, that night, to Shamshevo in order to take language. But, either because he was not satisfied with one Frenchman, or because he slept through the night, he climbed into the bushes during the day, into the very middle of the Frenchmen and, as he saw from Mount Denisov, was discovered by them.
And now we will talk about a more serious well-established concept.
The term "Black Swan" refers to certain critical events that cannot be predicted, but which, nevertheless, fundamentally change the course of history. Black swans can represent both positive phenomena (for example, the advent of the Internet) and negative ones (the rise to power of Adolf Hitler).
Also, the "Black Swan" is known as a Latin expression - the oldest known quote comes from the pen of the ancient Roman satirist Juvenal, - " rare bird on earth like a black swan" (lat. rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno)
The term “black swan” has become firmly entrenched in the minds of our society after the publication of the book by Nassim Taleb “The Black Swan. Under the sign of unpredictability. Although this metaphor has been known in philosophy for a long time, it was Taleb who began to use it to refer to rare and unexpected events with significant consequences. At the same time, “black swans” can be not only negative events, but also represent unpredictable “good luck”
Let's find out more about all this...
In the Middle Ages, the very assumption of the existence of a black swan in nature looked so absurd that it became a metaphor for something absolutely impossible. Until 1697, it was believed that swans were only white, but a Dutch expedition led by Willem de Vlaminck discovered a population of black swans in Western Australia. The black swan is now featured on the flag of Northern Australia. The discovery of the first black swan was a big surprise for ornithologists.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (born 1960) is a Lebanese mathematician, trader, businessman and philosopher who now lives in the United States. The Orthodox family of Nassim Taleb was deported from the Lebanese city of Amiun in 1975, after the start of the civil war. Taleb's ancestors in the past held high positions in the Lebanese government, his father was an oncologist, engaged in anthropological research.
The Black Swan book, published in 2007, has sold more than 300,000 copies. It spent seventeen weeks on the New York Times bestseller list and has been translated into 27 languages. In October 2009, according to The Secret of the Firm magazine, the book topped the list of Top 5 business bestsellers.
In recent years, humanity has experienced a series of severe upheavals. such as September 11, 2001, the global financial crisis, war in Ossetia, Ukraine. All of them, which seemed absolutely impossible until they happened, now seem natural to us. It is precisely such unpredictable events that Taleb proposes to call Black Swans. According to his authoritative conviction, it is precisely such events that leave a mark, both in history as a whole and in the life of each individual person.
Within the framework of one individual's life, Taleb proposes to conduct an imaginary experiment: to consider one's own life and study the role of such unpredictable events in it with great consequences. It is worth remembering the moment of choosing a profession, meeting a life partner, betrayal, expulsion from the homeland, sudden enrichment or ruin. Could you have planned these things? How often do you look forward to such moments in your life? There is a saying: “If you want to make God laugh, tell God about your plans”, which is just about that.
The essence of the question is this: this is not an expected event that is impossible to predict. In contrast to this concept, there is a term White Swan An event that is more or less predictable. For example, experts predict what will happen to oil in 20 years - this is the White Swan, but it is impossible to predict how much it will cost in a year. Or the prediction that Medvedev or Putin, or even Prokhorov, will become the president of the country - these are predictable situations, with varying degrees of error. Was it possible to predict Yeltsin's announcement on the eve of 2000 about resigning from the powers of the president? This is not a predictable situation.
Yes, after, she quite fit into the logic, but, before - it simply could not come to mind. The meaning of the Black Swan is that, as a rule, it is not subject to a person, despite the fact that it, like a different format of events on earth (together with the white swan), is completely a real thing. The black swan has its place. Human life has always been determined by the degree of predictability. The more unpredictable it is, the more interesting it is. Of course, to a certain extent, because a completely unpredictable life is terrible.
But the more it becomes predictable, the more boring. And so in a circle. This means that our life is formed under the influence of two currents: white and black swans. The white swan makes it possible for a person not to fall into despondency from hopelessness, and therefore he is proud of himself from his ability to predict. The black swan does not leave a person any chance to feel omnipotent. And, if one of these supports is removed, our life, which we live, will turn into nothing. We will turn into either animals or gods. And the earth, as you know, was created for people.
So, the Black Swan cannot be predicted, it must be understood and expected. Expect the unexpected to always happen.
Financial experts time and again find themselves defenseless against black swans. The mortgage crisis has destroyed thousands of businesses and brought entire countries to their knees. Companies must have a back-up plan to be less fragile. Disasters, no matter how incredible they may seem, must be planned. Not in a specific way, but only asking right question"what if?".
By their very nature, black swans cannot be predicted, as such events have never happened before by definition. However, it is possible to study how organizations, peoples or survivors of disasters coped with their consequences. Such analysis can help prepare companies to build strategies to get back on their feet as quickly and with as little damage as possible after disasters.
The theory of expectation of the unexpected is not prophetic, but it has had the broadest resonance in history and philosophy. Taleb made many small bets on incredible events and became rich, because. some of them, however, happened. The basic principles of his Black Swan theory include three main criteria.
Let's list them and rate them:
1. The event is unexpected.
Before bitcoin, there was no history of a currency that was not backed by any nation and whose transfer was not based on trust. Before the advent of the Internet, this was not possible at all. For some time, outside the narrow community of cryptologists, this idea was meaningless and did not find understanding on the part of the government and banking institutions. It never occurred to anyone to control or try to stop Bitcoin - it was simply not taken seriously. And then it was already too late.
First criterion: Yes.
2. The event has a big impact.
So far, the currency has reached a peak total value of around $12 billion. This is only about 2.5% of the value of the company search engine Google. However, the vast majority of countries now know about bitcoin, and in many of them warnings or bans on its use have been issued by local banking systems. Bitcoin has acquired an army of global supporters, and a close-knit community has formed around it. It includes politicians, bankers, regulators, investors and scientists trying to understand it, control it, profit from it and use it as a catalyst to change the world.
Second criterion: Yes.
3. After the event has already happened, retrospectively it is given a rational explanation - as if it was expected.
If we consider the two widely known Black Swans, we can retroactively explain them from a rational point of view. If we talk about the Internet, then, given how much personal computers was purchased in the 80s and early 90s, it becomes obvious that they would eventually end up being linked together for delivery Email and news sharing.
In the case of the 9/11 events, retrospectively, the "experts" linked the growth points of anti-Americanism in the radical parts of the Muslim world and suddenly "remembered" the failed attempt to blow up the building of the World shopping center with a car bomb in an underground parking lot a few years earlier, and it became "obvious" to them that the same sort of thing was about to happen again.
Has bitcoin ever been analyzed from a rationalization point of view through the prism of history? But are we already at the point where we have enough data for such an analysis? Probably, there is still no jury that could evaluate it. Bitcoin is still in its infancy and time will tell where this experiment will take place in the annals of history.
Third criterion: unknown.
However, it may have been the Black Swan that gave birth to Bitcoin: the subprime crisis that rocked the entire banking industry. Bankers were well aware that this is a vicious practice - to give housing to the property and rent to everyone. But that was not their problem, as they sold loans and enriched themselves at the expense of other people's problems. When the loans stopped paying back on time, it set off a chain reaction that spread to the big insurance agencies and investment companies, all of which led to a debt abyss.
Of course, looking back, it becomes OBVIOUS that this was bound to happen. That's what credit reports are for. Loans that stop paying are bad for everyone. And of course, after the fact, a whole army of critics in suits and ties ranted on the news that they foresaw the impending crisis.
How to live in a world full of Black Swans?
So, Black Swans cannot be predicted. But you can learn to live with them. Here are some tips that Taleb gives us:
Learn to distinguish "good" accidents from "bad" ones. In movies, in science, or in venture capital deals, there are good Black Swans. If you are engaged in such a business, then your happiness lies in ignorance, especially if your competitors also do not know anything, but, unlike you, they do not know about it. But in areas where the inability to calculate risks is fraught with failure, they should be feared. Service in the army and in state security, as well as banking activities are among such areas.
Think big and don't try to predict a specific Black Swan. Louis Pasteur, who said that luck loves those who are ready for it, understood that in order to make a discovery, it is pointless to stubbornly look for something specific. Scientists are hard at work to set the stage for a fluke to capture the Black Swan.
Look for a meeting with the Black Swan. A publisher, a representative of a reputable fund or a distinguished scientist expresses a desire to meet with you - do not miss this opportunity - the second time it may not turn up. Do not get bogged down in a routine, communicate with people. In a big city, the likelihood of meeting a good Black Swan is greater than in the wilderness.
Be suspicious of government plans and forecasts. Do not forget that the main thing for an official and for a banker is to stay afloat, and not at all to get to the bottom of the truth. This does not mean that all this public is completely useless: you just need to be on the alert and not fall victim to their "production costs".
Do not waste your nerves and time fighting with "specialists" of all stripes. Foolish forecasts have always been and will always be, the main thing is not to trust them too much. When you hear a specialist pronounce the words "equilibrium" and "normal distribution", do not argue with him, but put a rat up his collar.
Taleb's 10 Principles for a Sustainable Black Swan Peace
It's better for something fragile to break when it's small than when it's big and big.
It is unacceptable to impose losses on everyone, and privatize profits to the elect
Blindfolded people driving a school bus (and crashing it) can't be trusted with a new bus
Not recommended to manager nuclear power plant incentive bonus without a tangible penalty in case of failure
Balance complexity with simplicity
Do not give children a stick of dynamite, even if you warned them and provided instructions
Only scams of financial pyramids can be built on the trust of depositors. For government securities, “trust restoration” is unacceptable
Even if the addict is in withdrawal, do not give him a new dose.
Citizens should be protected from fluctuations in the value of financial assets or erroneous “expert” advice regarding their pensions
Start frying an omelette with pre-broken eggs.
sources
http://lebeddeva.ru/vse-o-lebedyah/chto-takoe-chernyj-lebed.html
http://bitnovosti.com/2014/04/08/bitcoin-black-swan/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A7%D1%91%D1%80%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9_%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%B1%D0 %B5%D0%B4%D1%8C_(%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B8%D1%8F)
http://dic.academic.ru/dic.nsf/ruwiki/1678229
Let me throw you some more interesting topics: for example, and here The original article is on the website InfoGlaz.rf Link to the article from which this copy is made -
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